Deere & Company (DE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.7x earnings — a 31% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — DE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.2. DCF fair value of $166 implies 73% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this Industrials leader present a dichotomy between robust capital efficiency and current earnings compression. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that equity returns are driven primarily by high leverage (4.08x) rather than margin expansion or asset turnover, the underlying profitability remains strong with an 11.2% net margin supported by a 36.5% gross spread. Capital allocation quality appears adequate given a positive ROIC-WACC spread of +0.8%, though this is narrow compared to high-growth peers. Credit and integrity metrics are mixed; the Altman Z-Score of 3.2 indicates moderate safety, while the low Beneish M-Score (-2.53) suggests earnings lack manipulation risk, yet a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals middling financial strength amidst an -11.6% revenue decline year-over-year.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive future growth that current fundamentals do not support. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 32.5x, which aligns closely with the sector average but masks a significant divergence between historical earnings power and implied trajectory. A DCF analysis indicates a fair value of $173, implying a substantial -69.3% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 27.8%. This wide gap highlights that the market is currently pricing in hyper-growth expectations inconsistent with recent top-line contraction and moderate historical returns, creating a potential re-rating risk if consensus estimates fail to materialize.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis through conflicting factor exposures and insider sentiment. Despite generating high Fama-French alpha of 16.47% annually, the stock exhibits a negative value tilt (-0.139) driven by its growth characteristics, while maintaining robust profitability (RMW: 0.511). However, this momentum is counterbalanced by significant insider activity, with $26.9 million in net selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes near-term downside pressure when management exits positions during periods of revenue headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $221 | $139 | $92 |
| 3% | $277 | $166 | $107 |
| 4% | $366 | $202 | $126 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $579.25.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $166 (-72.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 39% below its 5-year average P/E of 56.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDeere & Company is currently trading at $564.49, a level that warrants analysis against its established moving average envelope to assess relative positioning within the broader industrial sector context. Without specific boundary values for the short-term or long-term smoothing averages in the provided dataset, it remains impossible to definitively characterize whether this price point represents an overextension beyond statistical norms or a consolidation zone near historical means. The absence of explicit upper and lower band limits precludes a precise calculation of deviation magnitude, leaving the potential for mean reversion purely theoretical rather than quantifiable based on these isolated figures. In such a vacuum of comparative data, any assertion regarding immediate correction or continuation would be speculative rather than derived from observable statistical divergence. The current market price sits in isolation without reference to its recent volatility range or trend boundaries, meaning that while the stock exists within the $564.49 figure, its relationship to dynamic support and resistance structures generated by moving averages cannot be synthesized here. Consequently, determining if a pullback toward central tendency is imminent requires additional data points defining the envelope's width and the price's distance from it, neither of which are present in this summary.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $1.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | $1.6200 | +10.2% |
| 2024-09-30 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $1.4700 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-28 | $1.4700 | +8.9% |
| 2023-09-28 | $1.3500 | +8.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKX or ARKQ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DE shares regardless of Deere & Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $15.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to DE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Deere & Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Deere & Company (DE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ROCKET LAB (RKLB UQ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 DE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Deere & Company (DE) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.3% of the ARKX (ARKX) and 3.6% of the ARKQ (ARKQ). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 29M shares (10.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Deere & Company over the past year sits near $473.98 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $579.25 trades 22.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Deere & Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Deere & Company converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 4,397 | $588.74 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-01 | 3,656 | $589.87 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-24 | 1 | $591.95 | $591.95 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $596.04 | $1,788.12 |
| 2026-04-13 | 100 | $605.00 | $60,500 |
| 2026-04-10 | 90 | $618.00 | $55,620 |
| 2026-04-09 | 65 | $609.32 | $39,605.8 |
| 2026-04-06 | 13 | $575.71 | $7,484.23 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | $563.30 | $563.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 735 | $555.50 | $408,292.5 |
| 2026-03-27 | 5,731 | $581.19 | $3.3M |
| 2026-03-26 | 5,436 | $577.99 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 157 | $583.02 | $91,534.14 |
| 2026-03-23 | 444 | $559.73 | $248,520.12 |
| 2026-03-11 | 28 | $592.72 | $16,596.16 |
| 2026-03-05 | 1 | $614.04 | $614.04 |
| 2026-03-02 | 380 | $629.71 | $239,289.8 |
| 2026-02-27 | 5 | $619.46 | $3,097.3 |
| 2026-02-23 | 29 | $662.49 | $19,212.21 |
| 2026-02-20 | 31 | $662.00 | $20,522 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1 | $602.92 | $602.92 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1 | $612.69 | $612.69 |
| 2026-02-11 | 84,492 | $593.41 | $50.1M |
| 2026-02-10 | 387 | $585.67 | $226,654.29 |
| 2026-02-09 | 100 | $583.11 | $58,311 |
| 2026-02-06 | 8,737 | $565.73 | $4.9M |
| 2026-02-05 | 287 | $567.26 | $162,803.62 |
| 2026-02-03 | 5,143 | $532.25 | $2.7M |
| 2026-02-02 | 200 | $528.00 | $105,600 |
| 2026-01-29 | 30,106 | $525.01 | $15.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GWW | 0.491 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.485 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.472 | 0.439 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.465 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.453 | 0.442 | Moderate |
| PCAR | 0.446 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| AMCR | 0.432 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| FAST | 0.429 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.418 | 0.376 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.