The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.5. DCF fair value of $3 implies 96% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. currently reflect severe value destruction, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -14.0% that indicates capital allocation is eroding shareholder value rather than creating it. This deterioration is rooted in the DuPont decomposition, where an operating net margin contraction to -7.9% drives a total return on equity of -29.3%, despite robust gross margins at 74.0% and moderate leverage at 5.15x times. While the Beneish M-Score of -3.22 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places the firm in the grey zone regarding bankruptcy probability, exacerbated by a significant revenue decline of 8.2% year-over-year and a Piotroski F-Score of only 4/9, signaling multiple fundamental weaknesses simultaneously.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between historical norms and current cash flow realities, with shares trading at approximately nine times the sector average P/E of 34.4x while the DCF model implies a fair value significantly below current levels. The implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 24.8% appears disconnected from the realized negative earnings trajectory, resulting in a calculated downside to intrinsic value exceeding 90%. This discrepancy suggests the market pricing may be anchored on legacy brand power rather than near-term operational execution, creating a scenario where traditional multiple compression could further depress equity prices absent an immediate turnaround in profitability.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators reveal a complex picture; although the stock has generated substantial positive Fama-French alpha of 25.60% annually relative to its factor exposures, this momentum is not supported by current earnings quality or insider activity, which remains neutral with zero net flow over ninety days. The value and profitability factors show neutrality, indicating that standard anomaly strategies do not currently offer a clear directional signal given the conflicting data on margin expansion versus revenue contraction. Investors must weigh whether the historical alpha reflects structural advantages or transient market dislocation in light of the deteriorating DuPont components and negative capital efficiency metrics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.6% | 10.6% | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $5 | $2 | $1 |
| 3% | $7 | $3 | $1 |
| 4% | $9 | $4 | $2 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $83.41.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $3 (-95.5%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of $76.14 for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. establishes a specific point on the chart, yet without access to historical moving averages or relative strength index data in this prompt, a definitive assessment regarding momentum direction cannot be calculated. Typically, when price action sustains above key moving averages such as the 50-day or 200-day lines, it signals an uptrend where bullish sentiment may dominate short-term trading ranges. Conversely, positioning below these benchmarks often indicates bearish pressure and potential downside risk. In the absence of specific RSI readings here, one cannot determine if the stock is experiencing overbought conditions that might trigger a pullback or oversold states suggesting a possible rebound; such metrics are essential to gauge whether short-term momentum is accelerating or decelerating relative to recent volatility. Given the sector classification as Consumer Defensive, market participants often monitor these equities for stability during economic fluctuations, but technical confirmation requires more than just the current dollar value. A complete technical synthesis would need to correlate the $76.14 level against immediate support and resistance zones derived from prior session closes and volume profiles. Until those specific comparative data points are available, any conclusion regarding whether the asset is in a strengthening or weakening phase remains speculative. Readers must evaluate how this price point interacts with longer-term trends and oscillator values to form their own view on potential future movements within the Consumer Defensive landscape.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-29 | $0.3500 | -47.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-29 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.6600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MOAT or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EL shares regardless of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to EL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with EL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 EL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.7% of the MOAT (MOAT) and 1.3% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 50M shares (20.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest EL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. over the past year sits near $88.41 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $83.41 sits 5.7% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. converts 459% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-14.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 441 | $82.13 | $36,219.33 |
| 2026-05-11 | 200 | $86.20 | $17,240 |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | $86.67 | $4,073.49 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,082 | $81.33 | $87,999.06 |
| 2026-05-04 | 189,182 | $79.30 | $15.0M |
| 2026-05-01 | 875 | $76.71 | $67,121.25 |
| 2026-04-29 | 23,000 | $77.10 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 8 | $76.40 | $611.2 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $76.42 | $229.26 |
| 2026-04-13 | 147 | $72.67 | $10,682.49 |
| 2026-04-08 | 137,296 | $69.17 | $9.5M |
| 2026-04-01 | 27,579 | $71.77 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-30 | 13 | $67.23 | $873.99 |
| 2026-03-25 | 24 | $71.48 | $1,715.52 |
| 2026-03-23 | 645 | $85.92 | $55,418.4 |
| 2026-03-20 | 440 | $85.60 | $37,664 |
| 2026-03-04 | 32,558 | $98.71 | $3.2M |
| 2026-03-02 | 582 | $109.47 | $63,711.54 |
| 2026-02-27 | 400 | $111.90 | $44,760 |
| 2026-02-26 | 11,737 | $112.92 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-23 | 300 | $114.23 | $34,269 |
| 2026-02-20 | 700 | $111.74 | $78,218 |
| 2026-02-12 | 66,053 | $105.39 | $7.0M |
| 2026-02-11 | 56,262 | $101.31 | $5.7M |
| 2026-02-02 | 9,187 | $115.28 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-26 | 3,119 | $117.69 | $367,075.11 |
| 2026-01-14 | 61 | $115.37 | $7,037.57 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1,000 | $108.16 | $108,160 |
| 2026-01-05 | 62 | $106.76 | $6,619.12 |
| 2026-01-02 | 9,805 | $104.72 | $1.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| NDSN | 0.487 | 0.420 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.463 | 0.460 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.454 | 0.391 | Moderate |
| DD | 0.451 | 0.376 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.449 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.437 | 0.394 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.433 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| NXPI | 0.432 | 0.412 | Moderate |
| NL0009538784 | 0.432 | 0.412 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.