Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.9x earnings — a 35% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — ELS is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $41 implies 37% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.87 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Equity LifeStyle Properties reveal a tension between high profitability and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -0.1% that indicates the firm is barely covering its cost of capital despite generating robust returns on equity. This 21.3% DuPont ROE is driven primarily by significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 3.17x) rather than operational efficiency, as evidenced by a modest asset turnover of 0.25x and flat revenue growth of just 1.2%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength and the Beneish M-Score of -1.87 points to low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 signals a vulnerability zone where insolvency risks begin to materialize under stress conditions.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 31.8x, which is substantially lower than the sector average of 87.1x, yet this discount appears misaligned with the DCF fair value estimate of $42, implying -33.4% downside from current levels based on an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 14.3%. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in a more conservative growth trajectory or assigning higher risk premiums than the model assumes, despite the company's high net margin of 26.7%.
Risk factor analysis further complicates the investment thesis through negative momentum indicators and conflicting style factors. The annual Fama-French Alpha of -2.67% indicates underperformance relative to a standard market benchmark over time, while recent insider activity shows $201,660 in net selling over 90 days, potentially signaling management caution regarding near-term prospects. Although the stock exhibits a positive Value Factor tilt with an HML score of 0.219, this is offset by neutral profitability factor exposure (RMW: -0.004), resulting in a complex risk profile where downside protection from value characteristics does not fully mitigate concerns related to capital structure and recent insider disposition flows.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $57 | $33 | $21 |
| 3% | $75 | $41 | $25 |
| 4% | $109 | $52 | $30 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $61.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $41 (-36.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% above its 5-year average P/E of 31.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEquity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. currently trades at $62.89 within the real estate sector, presenting a scenario where technical positioning must be weighed against inherent industry volatility. The absence of specific drawdown metrics or moving average crossovers in the provided data prevents a definitive assessment of whether current price action represents a structural trend reversal or a fragile consolidation phase. Without context on recent equity flows or fundamental earnings shifts relative to this price point, it remains unclear if the $62.89 level acts as a robust support zone or an overextended peak susceptible to rapid correction. The real estate sector's sensitivity to interest rate environments suggests that any momentum observed at this valuation could be highly reactive rather than deeply rooted in long-term value appreciation. Technical indicators alone cannot distinguish between sustained institutional accumulation and short-term speculative activity when fundamental backdrops are not explicitly detailed alongside the price figure. Consequently, the risk dynamics for ELS appear contingent on external macroeconomic factors that may amplify or dampen price fluctuations independently of immediate chart patterns. Ultimately, the current setup offers limited insight into whether upward pressure is supported by strong underlying fundamentals or merely temporary market sentiment. Traders observing this asset must remain vigilant to potential volatility spikes that could invalidate any perceived stability at $62.89. The interplay between sector-wide headwinds and specific stock performance means that momentum here may lack the durability required for a sustained trend, leaving participants exposed to significant downside risk if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | $0.5430 | +5.4% |
| 2025-12-26 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-27 | $0.5150 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-28 | $0.5150 | +7.7% |
| 2024-12-27 | $0.4780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.4780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.4780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.4780 | +6.7% |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.4480 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.4480 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.4480 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VNQ or SDY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ELS shares regardless of Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to ELS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ELS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ELS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 ELS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.6% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ) and 0.6% of the SDY (SDY). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 21M shares (10.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ELS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ELS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. over the past year sits near $60.48 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $61.45 trades 1.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ELS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. converts 45% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 55% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 5 | $62.63 | $313.15 |
| 2026-05-01 | 93 | $63.29 | $5,885.97 |
| 2026-04-27 | 327 | $63.29 | $20,695.83 |
| 2026-04-14 | 48 | $64.30 | $3,086.4 |
| 2026-04-09 | 4,040 | $63.78 | $257,671.2 |
| 2026-03-31 | 7 | $62.52 | $437.64 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,246 | $62.80 | $141,048.8 |
| 2026-03-26 | 3,457 | $63.07 | $218,032.99 |
| 2026-03-23 | 100,192 | $64.22 | $6.4M |
| 2026-03-18 | 247 | $67.81 | $16,749.07 |
| 2026-03-17 | 170 | $67.45 | $11,466.5 |
| 2026-03-13 | 226 | $67.91 | $15,347.66 |
| 2026-03-11 | 225 | $67.73 | $15,239.25 |
| 2026-03-10 | 9,037 | $67.53 | $610,268.61 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,840 | $67.77 | $124,696.8 |
| 2026-03-05 | 227 | $67.90 | $15,413.3 |
| 2026-02-26 | 8 | $67.81 | $542.48 |
| 2026-02-13 | 47 | $67.18 | $3,157.46 |
| 2026-02-10 | 4,079 | $65.64 | $267,745.56 |
| 2026-01-20 | 820 | $63.60 | $52,152 |
| 2026-01-13 | 43 | $60.94 | $2,620.42 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1 | $61.79 | $61.79 |
| 2025-12-24 | 1,275 | $61.41 | $78,297.75 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,324 | $61.28 | $81,134.72 |
| 2025-12-17 | 928 | $61.66 | $57,220.48 |
| 2025-12-16 | 1,293 | $62.72 | $81,096.96 |
| 2025-12-15 | 643 | $62.05 | $39,898.15 |
| 2025-12-10 | 105,115 | $60.44 | $6.4M |
| 2025-12-05 | 423 | $62.07 | $26,255.61 |
| 2025-12-01 | 21 | $62.87 | $1,320.27 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SUI | 0.677 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.581 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| AMH | 0.560 | 0.444 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.538 | 0.435 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.528 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| ESS | 0.522 | 0.469 | Moderate |
| REG | 0.521 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| UDR | 0.517 | 0.460 | Moderate |
| WPC | 0.516 | 0.501 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ELS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.