FIBK (FIBK)

$35.22
+1.41%
$3.5B
Market Cap
11.6
P/E Ratio
0.75
Beta
5.28%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 6/9Altman Z 0.2 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 0.2. DCF fair value of $43 implies 24% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$35.22
Fair Value
$42
Implied Upside
+18.9%
$42IMPLIED FAIR VALUEUNDERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)0%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.1%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
-5.7%annual FCF growth priced in at $35.22

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →7.1%9.1%11.1%
2%$50$39$33
3%$58$43$35
4%$71$48$37

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $35.22.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $43 (+23.9%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

FIBK is currently trading at $35.18, a price point that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value. Without the specific upper and lower band limits of this envelope, it remains unclear whether the current valuation represents an expansion above recent trend lines or a contraction below them. The positioning of the stock relative to these dynamic averages is critical for identifying potential mean-reversion opportunities; if the price sits near the outer boundaries of the envelope, statistical probability suggests a higher likelihood of reverting toward the central moving average line over time. Conversely, trading within the inner bands might indicate continued momentum rather than an imminent reversal. The absence of additional metrics such as volume profiles or volatility indices limits the precision of this analysis regarding immediate support and resistance levels. Observers should note that extreme deviations from long-term averages often precede corrections, while prices hovering close to the mean may sustain their current trajectory longer than historical norms suggest for similar financial instruments. Any assessment of value here must account for how far $35.18 diverges from the calculated statistical center defined by the specific timeframe used in the envelope construction. Ultimately, this snapshot highlights a state where future price action depends heavily on whether the market corrects toward equilibrium or continues its directional drift. The current data alone does not confirm if the asset is overextended to the point of inevitable pullback or simply exhibiting normal volatility within established parameters. Market participants must weigh these relative positioning factors against broader macroeconomic conditions and sector

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

6/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
0.2
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

28.5%
Net Margin
9.1%
WACC
+5.9%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+33.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.8M
Free Cash Flow
70%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

28.5%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.04x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
7.73x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
8.8%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

6.73x
Debt / Equity
11.45%
FCF Yield

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
$-282,665
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
2
Sale Transactions
2026-03-26SCOTT JONATHAN RSold 5/8 qtrsSale$100,350
2026-03-13JENSEN KIRK DGrant$130,897
2026-03-13JONES NATHAN RGrant$127,319
2026-03-13ROBBINS KRISTINAGrant$133,978
2026-03-13REUTER JAMES AGrant$1M

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $0.56
Act: $0.49
-13.2%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.58
Act: $0.69
+19.9%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.61
Act: $0.69
+13.3%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.63
Act: $1.08
+71.3%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.4700
Latest Dividend
$1.88
2025 Total
0.0%
YoY Growth
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.22
2016
$0.96
2017
$1.12
2018
$1.24
2019
$2.00
2020
$1.64
2021
$1.70
2022
$1.88
2023
$1.88
2024
$1.88
2025
$0.94
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-05-11$0.47000.0%
2026-02-10$0.47000.0%
2025-11-10$0.47000.0%
2025-08-11$0.47000.0%
2025-05-12$0.47000.0%
2025-02-10$0.47000.0%
2024-11-04$0.47000.0%
2024-08-05$0.47000.0%
2024-05-03$0.47000.0%
2024-02-08$0.47000.0%
2023-11-03$0.47000.0%
2023-08-04$0.47000.0%

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

33.5%
Annual Volatility
1.10
Sharpe (1Y)
0.39
Sharpe (3Y)
-31.8%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-50.9%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

12.1
Forward P/E
1.16
PEG Ratio
1.03
Price/Book
1M
Avg Volume
$39.26
52W High
$25.81
52W Low
70%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$175M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding FIBK
0.08%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$214B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FIBK shares regardless of FIBK's individual fundamentals. We estimate $175M of passive capital is structurally linked to FIBK through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on FIBK's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in FIBK to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

FIBK Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
FIBKEpicenterVYMETFVBRETFVTWOETFAUBHigh RiskABCBHigh RiskFULTHigh RiskBANCHigh RiskFHBHigh Risk
FIBK Price Drop (%)0

If FIBK (FIBK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ATLANTIC UNION BANKSHARES CO (AUB) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with FIBK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

FIBK Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 18 FIBK shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
FIBK
Total Shares
97M
ETF Lock-Up
5.6%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
5.6%Locked Float

FIBK (FIBK) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.3% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 10 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (5.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

FIBK Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
FIBK
PRICE
$35.22
FLOOR (POC)
$32.84
STRENGTH
Medium
$25$26$26$27$28$29$29$30$31$317%$328%$33POC 11%$348%$348%$3510%$35.22$369%$36$37$38$38
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for FIBK over the past year sits near $32.84 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $35.22 trades 7.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-11797$36.42$29,026.74
2026-04-29300$35.68$10,704
2026-04-16197$34.07$6,711.79
2026-04-14908$34.44$31,271.52
2026-04-132$34.03$68.06
2026-04-085,464$33.22$181,514.08
2026-04-06229$33.48$7,666.92
2026-03-271,107$33.50$37,084.5
2026-03-2337,170$32.48$1.2M
2026-03-167,751$33.13$256,790.63
2026-03-13547$33.23$18,176.81
2026-03-121,303$33.76$43,989.28
2026-03-064,545$35.00$159,075
2026-03-032,755$35.18$96,920.9
2026-03-0279$34.61$2,734.19
2026-02-271,912$36.79$70,342.48
2026-02-19309$37.26$11,513.34
2026-02-052,240$38.14$85,433.6
2026-02-0413$37.60$488.8
2026-01-292,017$36.66$73,943.22
2026-01-0931,370$37.52$1.2M
2025-12-3158$35.15$2,038.7
2025-12-0430$33.33$999.9
2025-12-0243$33.03$1,420.29
2025-11-2624,145$33.13$799,923.85
2025-11-061,309$32.20$42,149.8
2025-10-3186$31.48$2,707.28
2025-10-148,410$31.21$262,476.1

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
FNB0.8560.865High co-movement
ASB0.8510.855High co-movement
FULT0.8460.841High co-movement
COLB0.8460.839High co-movement
ONB0.8410.856High co-movement
HWC0.8410.842High co-movement
AUB0.8310.838High co-movement
VLY0.8280.819High co-movement
CFG0.8270.848High co-movement

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare FIBK to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.