Hologic, Inc. (HOLX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 31.5x earnings — a 52% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — HOLX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.2. DCF fair value of $37 implies 51% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the company present a capital efficiency challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -0.8%, indicating that current returns fail to cover the cost of capital despite robust profitability metrics like a 13.8% net margin and strong gross margins exceeding 50%. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that equity generation is primarily driven by financial leverage rather than operational efficiency, with an asset turnover ratio of only 0.45x, credit risk remains moderate given an Altman Z-Score of 4.2 and a clean Beneish M-Score of -2.70 suggesting no earnings manipulation. Financial stability is further supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, reflecting solid balance sheet strength even as revenue growth stagnates at just 1.7% year-over-year.
Valuation analysis highlights a significant discrepancy between market pricing and intrinsic value models; the current P/E multiple of 31.4x trades below the sector average of 36.8x yet remains elevated relative to its sluggish top-line expansion, while DCF modeling implies substantial downside with fair value estimated at $36, representing -52.2% from recent levels. This divergence suggests the market is pricing in a low-growth trajectory consistent with the implied free cash flow growth rate of 7.6%, failing to account for potential mean reversion or operational improvements that could narrow the gap between return on invested capital and the cost of equity.
Risk-adjusted performance metrics reveal an interesting anomaly where the stock has generated significant alpha, posting a Fama-French annualized alpha of 14.03% despite exhibiting a negative value factor tilt (-0.211) that aligns more with growth characteristics than deep-value profiles. The absence of insider activity over the last ninety days further neutralizes signals regarding management confidence in near-term catalysts, leaving the investment case dependent on whether future operational turns can successfully convert high margins into higher asset turnover and close the negative spread between returns and capital costs.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $47 | $32 | $25 |
| 3% | $58 | $37 | $27 |
| 4% | $78 | $44 | $30 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $76.01.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $37 (-51.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% below its 5-year average P/E of 36.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHologic's current trading environment presents a complex interplay between price action and sector-specific headwinds. With the stock hovering near $76.01 within the Healthcare sector, the technical structure suggests a consolidation phase where momentum appears fragile rather than structural. The absence of significant upward divergence from recent lows indicates that any potential recovery is heavily dependent on external catalysts rather than intrinsic strength in the immediate chart pattern. The fundamental backdrop for healthcare equities often introduces elevated volatility, which can distort standard risk metrics and create false signals during periods of market stress. If Hologic's price trajectory fails to establish a definitive breakout above key resistance levels soon, the prevailing trend may remain bearish or range-bound, exposing the asset to further drawdowns if sentiment sours on sector-wide news. Conversely, a sustained move higher would require overcoming deep technical barriers that have likely absorbed previous buying pressure. Ultimately, the risk dynamics here suggest caution; the market is currently weighing historical valuation concerns against potential recovery plays without showing clear directional bias. The interplay between current price levels and broader healthcare volatility implies that momentum could reverse quickly if support at $76.01 breaks down. Investors must monitor whether this level holds as a floor or acts as a pivot point for further downside, given the lack of immediate technical confirmation supporting a robust upward trend in the near term.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like RSP or SCHV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HOLX shares regardless of Hologic, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $508M of passive capital is structurally linked to HOLX through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HOLX's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Hologic, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with HOLX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 11 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HOLX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 HOLX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.2% of the RSP (RSP) and 0.1% of the SCHV (SCHV). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 33M shares (15.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HOLX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HOLX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Hologic, Inc. over the past year sits near $75.44 (36% of 252-day volume). The current price of $76.01 trades 0.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (36% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HOLX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Hologic, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Hologic, Inc. converts 82% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 91,223 | $75.55 | $6.9M |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,486 | $75.21 | $111,762.06 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3 | $75.74 | $227.22 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,169 | $75.75 | $88,551.75 |
| 2026-03-05 | 14,757 | $75.67 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-04 | 9,306 | $75.46 | $702,230.76 |
| 2026-02-20 | 26,994 | $75.14 | $2.0M |
| 2026-02-09 | 54 | $74.81 | $4,039.74 |
| 2026-01-30 | 165 | $74.98 | $12,371.7 |
| 2026-01-29 | 119 | $75.10 | $8,936.9 |
| 2026-01-28 | 7,621 | $75.20 | $573,099.2 |
| 2026-01-23 | 35 | $75.11 | $2,628.85 |
| 2026-01-22 | 21 | $75.14 | $1,577.94 |
| 2026-01-20 | 90 | $74.98 | $6,748.2 |
| 2025-12-16 | 3,568 | $75.19 | $268,277.92 |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,083 | $75.00 | $81,225 |
| 2025-12-12 | 145 | $74.83 | $10,850.35 |
| 2025-12-10 | 34,207 | $74.89 | $2.6M |
| 2025-12-09 | 38,161 | $74.85 | $2.9M |
| 2025-12-08 | 37,693 | $74.97 | $2.8M |
| 2025-12-01 | 1,047 | $74.97 | $78,493.59 |
| 2025-11-21 | 622 | $74.12 | $46,102.64 |
| 2025-11-19 | 14 | $74.11 | $1,037.54 |
| 2025-11-17 | 122 | $74.15 | $9,046.3 |
| 2025-11-10 | 191 | $74.10 | $14,153.1 |
| 2025-10-30 | 49,924 | $73.98 | $3.7M |
| 2025-10-21 | 198 | $71.87 | $14,230.26 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2,754 | $69.85 | $192,366.9 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MTD | 0.410 | 0.163 | Moderate |
| DHR | 0.369 | 0.177 | Moderate |
| A | 0.359 | 0.173 | Moderate |
| WAT | 0.354 | 0.089 | Moderate |
| IQV | 0.338 | 0.118 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.335 | 0.133 | Moderate |
| FRT | 0.334 | 0.099 | Moderate |
| TMO | 0.329 | 0.223 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.328 | 0.175 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HOLX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-04-07.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.