Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 28.1x earnings — a 41% discount to the sector average of 47.4x — LAMR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.8. DCF fair value of $63 implies 53% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Lamar Advertising Company reveal a highly profitable operation driven primarily by exceptional margin expansion rather than asset efficiency or leverage, as evidenced by a net margin of 25.9% dominating the DuPont ROE decomposition despite low asset turnover and moderate equity multipliers. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates solid financial strength with limited earnings manipulation risk per the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.61, capital allocation efficiency is currently constrained by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -0.7%, suggesting returns on invested capital are marginally below the cost of equity at 10.7%. This creates an interesting divergence where high profitability coexists with suboptimal value creation relative to risk, while the Altman Z-Score of 1.7 flags elevated bankruptcy risk that warrants monitoring despite the strong cash flow profile implied by robust gross margins exceeding 67%.
Valuation metrics present a significant discrepancy between market pricing and intrinsic model valuations, as the current P/E ratio of 22.1x trades at less than one-third of the sector average of 87.1x, reflecting skepticism regarding future growth prospects rather than fundamental distress alone. A DCF analysis incorporating an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 10.9% yields a fair value of $64, which implies approximately -49.4% downside from current levels, indicating the market is pricing in substantial risk premiums or expecting slower execution than modeled. This deep discount contrasts with the stock's exposure to profitability factors (RMW) and its historical alpha generation, suggesting investors may be overcompensating for balance sheet fragility while underweighting the durability of its high-margin business model.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators show a nuanced picture where Fama-French factor tilts align positively toward value and robust profitability, supported by an annualized alpha of 2.00%, yet this is offset by recent insider activity showing $941,238 in net selling over the last ninety days. The combination of negative capital spread, elevated bankruptcy risk metrics, and active insider distribution suggests a cautious outlook where downside protection may be prioritized over growth participation, leaving the investment case dependent on whether operational improvements can eventually flip the ROIC-WACC dynamic to positive territory.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.8% | 10.8% | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $80 | $55 | $39 |
| 3% | $95 | $63 | $44 |
| 4% | $116 | $73 | $50 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $150.48.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $63 (-52.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 25% above its 5-year average P/E of 18.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedLamar Advertising Company currently trades at $157.93 within the real estate sector, presenting a technical snapshot that requires careful assessment of its risk profile relative to recent price action. The proximity of current levels to historical support or resistance zones often dictates whether observed momentum represents a sustained structural shift or a fragile correction awaiting external catalysts. In this specific context, the absence of broader macroeconomic tailwinds for commercial real estate suggests that any upward pressure may be susceptible to sudden reversals if underlying fundamentals do not accelerate. Volatility metrics inherent to the REIT sector frequently amplify price swings during periods of economic uncertainty, meaning that short-term gains could easily evaporate without corroborating revenue growth or occupancy improvements from the company's portfolio. The current valuation implies a degree of optimism regarding future cash flows, yet this sentiment remains vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and tenant credit quality issues that are typical in this industry cycle. Consequently, while the stock may exhibit resilience against minor market noise, its trajectory appears contingent on whether fundamental drivers can sustain the technical momentum observed recently rather than relying solely on speculative positioning. Ultimately, the interplay between drawdown potential and sector-specific headwinds indicates a delicate balance where risk dynamics could shift rapidly based on incoming data regarding lease renewals or capital expenditure plans. Investors must weigh the possibility that current price levels reflect temporary market dislocation against scenarios where deeper structural adjustments are necessary before long-term stability returns to the asset class.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | $1.6000 | -11.1% |
| 2025-12-22 | $1.8000 | +16.1% |
| 2025-09-19 | $1.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-16 | $1.5500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.5500 | -6.1% |
| 2024-12-18 | $1.6500 | +17.9% |
| 2024-09-18 | $1.4000 | +7.7% |
| 2024-06-17 | $1.3000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $1.3000 | +4.0% |
| 2023-12-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $1.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VNQ or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell LAMR shares regardless of Lamar Advertising Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to LAMR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Lamar Advertising Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with LAMR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
LAMR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 LAMR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Lamar Advertising Company (LAMR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.6% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ) and 0.4% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (10.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest LAMR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
LAMR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Lamar Advertising Company over the past year sits near $120.45 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $150.48 trades 24.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
LAMR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Lamar Advertising Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Lamar Advertising Company converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 7 | $151.20 | $1,058.4 |
| 2026-05-05 | 3,936 | $139.53 | $549,190.08 |
| 2026-04-28 | 51 | $135.75 | $6,923.25 |
| 2026-04-20 | 300 | $135.04 | $40,512 |
| 2026-03-26 | 381 | $126.47 | $48,185.07 |
| 2026-03-25 | 407 | $127.52 | $51,900.64 |
| 2026-03-10 | 758 | $136.02 | $103,103.16 |
| 2026-02-27 | 4,441 | $135.71 | $602,688.11 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6 | $133.73 | $802.38 |
| 2026-01-22 | 1 | $132.00 | $132 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2 | $127.50 | $255 |
| 2025-12-16 | 43 | $126.96 | $5,459.28 |
| 2025-11-24 | 200 | $131.27 | $26,254 |
| 2025-11-07 | 798 | $119.97 | $95,736.06 |
| 2025-10-28 | 175 | $120.02 | $21,003.5 |
| 2025-10-08 | 1,851 | $121.47 | $224,840.97 |
| 2025-10-07 | 2,408 | $122.20 | $294,257.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRTPX | 0.698 | 0.630 | Moderate |
| FRT | 0.567 | 0.483 | Moderate |
| EGP | 0.553 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| KIM | 0.534 | 0.428 | Moderate |
| SPG | 0.529 | 0.456 | Moderate |
| BRX | 0.525 | 0.446 | Moderate |
| BXP | 0.518 | 0.477 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.517 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.513 | 0.491 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare LAMR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.