Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 32.6x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — MSI is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.9. DCF fair value of $360 implies 18% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates robust fundamental economics, characterized by a substantial ROIC-WACC spread of +8.8%, indicating efficient capital deployment relative to its cost of equity. This high return profile is driven primarily by significant financial leverage rather than operational efficiency; the DuPont decomposition reveals an Equity Multiplier of 7.99x amplifying strong net margins (18.4%) and moderate asset turnover (0.60x). Creditworthiness remains solid with an Altman Z-Score of 4.0, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.38 suggests earnings are unlikely to be subject to manipulation. However, the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicates some weakness in financial stability trends compared to top-tier quality firms, creating a mixed signal regarding long-term durability despite current profitability metrics.
Valuation currently reflects aggressive growth expectations that may not align with intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E multiple of 34.5x, the stock commands a premium consistent with its implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 13.2%, yet this pricing appears stretched relative to discounted cash flow analysis which suggests a fair value $368 lower than current levels, implying -15.1% downside potential. The market is effectively pricing in sustained high-growth execution and the ability to maintain margins against rising leverage costs, as evidenced by the robust profitability factor (RMW) of 0.278 contributing positively to risk-adjusted returns.
Risk assessment reveals a divergence between style factors and insider sentiment. While the stock exhibits strong Fama-French alpha of 8.53% annually driven largely by its high profitability characteristics, it shows neutrality on value exposure with an HML factor near zero. A notable contradiction exists in ownership dynamics: despite the attractive risk-adjusted performance metrics, insiders have executed net selling totaling approximately $91.9 million over the last ninety days. This insider activity warrants scrutiny as a potential indicator that management may view current valuations or future leverage risks differently than external quantitative models suggest.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $445 | $319 | $243 |
| 3% | $524 | $360 | $267 |
| 4% | $640 | $413 | $296 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $415.42.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $360 (-18.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 28% above its 5-year average P/E of 26.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | $1.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-15 | $1.2100 | +11.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $1.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $1.0900 | +11.2% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.9800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.9800 | +11.4% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.8800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MSI shares regardless of Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to MSI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Motorola Solutions, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC (IRDM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MSI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MSI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 MSI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the XTL (XTL) and 1.7% of the VOT (VOT). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 28M shares (16.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MSI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MSI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Motorola Solutions, Inc. over the past year sits near $368.21 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $415.42 trades 12.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MSI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Motorola Solutions, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Motorola Solutions, Inc. converts 72% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 8.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 4,755 | $446.92 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-17 | 15 | $444.46 | $6,666.9 |
| 2026-04-07 | 21 | $441.39 | $9,269.19 |
| 2026-03-25 | 16 | $454.75 | $7,276 |
| 2026-03-23 | 197 | $452.35 | $89,112.95 |
| 2026-03-20 | 14,734 | $459.16 | $6.8M |
| 2026-02-10 | 2 | $422.59 | $845.18 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2,348 | $391.08 | $918,255.84 |
| 2026-01-20 | 37,237 | $400.61 | $14.9M |
| 2026-01-02 | 1 | $383.32 | $383.32 |
| 2025-12-30 | 45 | $377.28 | $16,977.6 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3,810 | $369.97 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-17 | 600 | $363.83 | $218,298 |
| 2025-12-16 | 11 | $364.84 | $4,013.24 |
| 2025-11-24 | 142,478 | $368.99 | $52.6M |
| 2025-10-31 | 26 | $431.98 | $11,231.48 |
| 2025-10-22 | 71 | $448.10 | $31,815.1 |
| 2025-10-20 | 63 | $445.00 | $28,035 |
| 2025-10-14 | 5,845 | $456.25 | $2.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EXC | 0.368 | 0.451 | Moderate |
| CGNX | 0.332 | 0.436 | Moderate |
| EQIX | 0.329 | 0.438 | Moderate |
| LIN | 0.299 | 0.390 | Low correlation |
| SYY | 0.298 | 0.371 | Low correlation |
| TDS | 0.297 | 0.187 | Low correlation |
| MCD | 0.291 | 0.324 | Low correlation |
| VRTPX | 0.280 | 0.256 | Low correlation |
| AEE | 0.279 | 0.354 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MSI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.