Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 23.9x earnings — a 32% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — YUM is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.6. Near modeled fair value — DCF estimates $147 (-9%).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Yum! Brands present a distinct dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure mechanics. The firm generates substantial value creation, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +22.7%, indicating robust returns on invested capital relative to the cost of financing. However, this strength is obscured by leverage; while net margins stand healthy at 19.0% and asset turnover remains stable at 1.0x, equity multipliers have inverted to -1.12x, driving a negative DuPont ROE of -21.3%. This accounting anomaly suggests significant off-balance-sheet financing or complex capitalization structures rather than operational failure. Qualitative risk indicators are mixed: the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate financial health with some weakening trends, yet the Altman Z-Score of 2.6 and negative Beneish M-Score of -2.53 imply a low probability of default and minimal earnings manipulation concerns.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive growth expectations that diverge from intrinsic value calculations. Trading at 28.1x forward earnings, YUM trades well below its sector average of 57.0x, yet it commands a premium over historical norms due to an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 8.4%. Conversely, discounted cash flow modeling assigns a fair value only slightly below current levels, implying negligible upside at -2.2% and suggesting the stock is fairly valued or marginally expensive given its specific risk profile. The disconnect between low sector relative valuation and near-parity DCF multiples indicates that investors are not heavily discounting for distress but may be pricing in sustained profitability rather than deep value recovery.
Factor analysis reveals a nuanced risk-reward landscape where style factors diverge from performance metrics. While the stock exhibits strong exposure to the Profitability factor (RMW) with an alpha of 0.154, it underperforms on the Value factor (HML), registering a negative annual Fama-French alpha of -2.60%. This dynamic is compounded by insider activity showing $3.7 million in net selling over the last ninety days, which often precedes downward revisions to earnings estimates or signals management's view that current valuations are stretched relative to near-term execution risks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $200 | $120 | $78 |
| 3% | $271 | $147 | $91 |
| 4% | $413 | $188 | $109 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $146.58.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $147 (-8.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 8% above its 5-year average P/E of 27.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedYUM's current price of $157.90 is slightly above its 50-day moving average but well over the longer-term 200-day moving average, indicating recent strength relative to both short and long-term trends. The RSI reading at 45.1 suggests that momentum is balanced around neutral territory, neither strongly bullish nor bearish.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-20 | $0.7500 | +5.6% |
| 2025-12-02 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-27 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-21 | $0.7100 | +6.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-27 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-24 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-20 | $0.6700 | +10.7% |
| 2023-11-27 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-28 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOT or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell YUM shares regardless of Yum! Brands, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to YUM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Yum! Brands, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with YUM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
YUM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 YUM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the VOT (VOT) and 1.0% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 42M shares (15.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest YUM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
YUM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Yum! Brands, Inc. over the past year sits near $146.88 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $146.58 sits 0.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
YUM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Yum! Brands, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Yum! Brands, Inc. converts 59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 22.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 475 | $158.36 | $75,221 |
| 2026-04-30 | 34 | $159.84 | $5,434.56 |
| 2026-04-29 | 145 | $156.46 | $22,686.7 |
| 2026-04-24 | 20,460 | $160.73 | $3.3M |
| 2026-04-20 | 300 | $162.79 | $48,837 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $161.57 | $484.71 |
| 2026-04-13 | 79,684 | $161.76 | $12.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,298 | $155.48 | $201,813.04 |
| 2026-03-31 | 110 | $154.59 | $17,004.9 |
| 2026-03-25 | 27 | $159.43 | $4,304.61 |
| 2026-03-20 | 459 | $156.25 | $71,718.75 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1,073 | $161.78 | $173,589.94 |
| 2026-03-06 | 56 | $158.62 | $8,882.72 |
| 2026-03-03 | 10,477 | $162.92 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-05 | 5,682 | $159.57 | $906,676.74 |
| 2026-01-26 | 605 | $152.97 | $92,546.85 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2 | $157.13 | $314.26 |
| 2026-01-09 | 15,294 | $153.48 | $2.3M |
| 2026-01-08 | 6,109 | $150.49 | $919,343.41 |
| 2026-01-05 | 74 | $150.49 | $11,136.26 |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,520 | $151.28 | $229,945.6 |
| 2025-12-22 | 45 | $153.75 | $6,918.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | 9,323 | $148.12 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-11 | 4,513 | $143.89 | $649,375.57 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1 | $145.86 | $145.86 |
| 2025-12-02 | 26,468 | $150.64 | $4.0M |
| 2025-12-01 | 4,369 | $153.21 | $669,374.49 |
| 2025-11-26 | 1 | $154.00 | $154 |
| 2025-11-18 | 61 | $148.03 | $9,029.83 |
| 2025-11-12 | 52,898 | $150.75 | $8.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MCD | 0.525 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| HSIC | 0.448 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.419 | 0.515 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.415 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| PHM | 0.405 | 0.438 | Moderate |
| CTAS | 0.405 | 0.438 | Moderate |
| BALL | 0.401 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| ECL | 0.399 | 0.434 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.393 | 0.416 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare YUM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.