Sempra (SRE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSRE trades at 30.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.1.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this utility operator reveal a significant capital efficiency disconnect, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -5.1%, indicating that the company is currently generating returns below its cost of capital. This negative economic moat persists despite a robust net margin of 13.4% and a strong gross margin of 46.6%; however, DuPont analysis shows this profitability relies heavily on leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.64x) rather than operational velocity or pricing power, as asset turnover remains low at just 0.12x. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength and the Beneish M-Score of -2.89 points to a lack of earnings manipulation risks, the Altman Z-Score of 1.1 flags elevated distress probabilities relative to historical norms for the sector.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between current market pricing and historical or peer benchmarks, with the stock trading at 36.1x forward P/E compared to a sector average of 22.5x. This premium implies that investors are pricing in aggressive growth assumptions not currently supported by revenue expansion, which is growing at only 3.9% year-over-year. Although the Fama-French Alpha of 15.74% annually and positive HML factor loading suggest strong historical risk-adjusted performance driven by value characteristics, the high multiple leaves little margin for error if growth decelerates further or capital costs rise to meet the WACC threshold.
Recent insider activity adds a layer of caution, with $4,715,281 in net selling over the last 90 days, which often signals management's view that current valuations may be stretched relative to intrinsic value. Combined with the negative profitability factor (RMW: -0.024) and low asset turnover, the risk profile suggests a potential mismatch between the high valuation multiple and the underlying operational efficiency required to sustain it. The data indicates a scenario where future returns depend entirely on improving capital allocation efficiency to close the widening gap between ROIC and WACC.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 24% above its 5-year average P/E of 28.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a current bullish trend as the shorter-term average has crossed above the longer-term one. The RSI of 54 suggests that near-term momentum remains positive but not yet overbought, hinting at possible continued upward movement with some room to run.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | $0.6580 | +2.0% |
| 2025-12-11 | $0.6450 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-01 | $0.6450 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-26 | $0.6450 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-20 | $0.6450 | +4.0% |
| 2024-12-05 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-26 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-27 | $0.6200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-20 | $0.6200 | +4.2% |
| 2023-12-05 | $0.5950 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-26 | $0.5950 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-03 | $0.5950 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SRE shares regardless of Sempra's individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to SRE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Sempra to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Sempra (SRE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SRE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SRE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 SRE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Sempra (SRE) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.3% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 3.9% of the VPU (VPU). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 110M shares (16.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SRE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SRE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Sempra over the past year sits near $92.88 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $89.55 sits 3.6% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SRE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Sempra convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Sempra converts -115% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 215% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 2 | $93.67 | $187.34 |
| 2026-05-06 | 15,797 | $94.37 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-28 | 1 | $92.46 | $92.46 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,822 | $96.16 | $175,203.52 |
| 2026-04-07 | 100 | $98.01 | $9,801 |
| 2026-04-01 | 535 | $97.17 | $51,985.95 |
| 2026-03-27 | 3,367 | $95.54 | $321,683.18 |
| 2026-03-26 | 4 | $95.32 | $381.28 |
| 2026-03-25 | 65 | $95.00 | $6,175 |
| 2026-03-19 | 53 | $95.04 | $5,037.12 |
| 2026-03-17 | 41,310 | $95.94 | $4.0M |
| 2026-03-03 | 140 | $95.67 | $13,393.8 |
| 2026-03-02 | 97,436 | $96.27 | $9.4M |
| 2026-01-20 | 274 | $92.55 | $25,358.7 |
| 2026-01-13 | 629 | $89.10 | $56,043.9 |
| 2025-12-30 | 49 | $88.91 | $4,356.59 |
| 2025-12-22 | 85,780 | $86.94 | $7.5M |
| 2025-12-11 | 934 | $89.07 | $83,191.38 |
| 2025-12-08 | 17,765 | $90.66 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-26 | 2,966 | $92.47 | $274,266.02 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2,610 | $92.00 | $240,120 |
| 2025-11-06 | 32,899 | $92.39 | $3.0M |
| 2025-10-29 | 24,644 | $92.55 | $2.3M |
| 2025-10-28 | 26,406 | $93.17 | $2.5M |
| 2025-10-24 | 40 | $91.81 | $3,672.4 |
| 2025-10-22 | 21 | $92.29 | $1,938.09 |
| 2025-10-09 | 976 | $93.36 | $91,119.36 |
| 2025-10-03 | 4,400 | $89.28 | $392,832 |
| 2025-10-02 | 4,400 | $89.26 | $392,744 |
| 2025-10-01 | 4,400 | $89.98 | $395,912 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ETR | 0.648 | 0.646 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.645 | 0.633 | Moderate |
| ATO | 0.638 | 0.643 | Moderate |
| NI | 0.636 | 0.704 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.630 | 0.668 | Moderate |
| DTE | 0.620 | 0.579 | Moderate |
| EIX | 0.613 | 0.586 | Moderate |
| PCG | 0.612 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.607 | 0.547 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SRE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.