Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.6x earnings — a 64% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — TIGO is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 1.6. DCF fair value of $236 implies 184% upside from current prices based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.22 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe firm demonstrates robust capital efficiency with an ROIC of 12.8% exceeding its WACC by 4.7%, indicating value creation potential, yet this advantage is underpinned by a highly leveraged DuPont profile where net margins at 22.6% and gross margins near 77.5% drive returns rather than asset turnover or leverage multiples alone. Financial integrity appears strong with a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.22, suggesting minimal earnings manipulation risk; however, the Altman Z-Score of 1.6 signals elevated bankruptcy distress relative to historical norms, creating a tension between high profitability metrics and underlying solvency concerns that warrants scrutiny regarding capital structure sustainability.
Valuation presents a distinct dichotomy: while the current P/E ratio of 10.6x trades at only 29% above its five-year average of 4.2x, it remains significantly compressed against the sector median of 36.3x. This discount aligns with conservative growth assumptions embedded in the DCF model, which projects a modest ten-year free cash flow expansion rate of just 3.5%. Consequently, the market appears to be pricing in stagnation rather than acceleration, as evidenced by near-flat revenue growth of 0.3% year-over-year, resulting in an implied fair value that suggests substantial theoretical upside if long-term growth assumptions materialize beyond current expectations.
The risk-reward profile hinges on resolving the divergence between high-quality earnings signals and moderate distress indicators; while fundamental quality scores suggest operational resilience, the Altman Z-Score introduces a tail risk element not fully captured by margin expansion alone. Investors must weigh whether the significant valuation gap relative to peers reflects a permanent structural disadvantage or a temporary market overreaction to solvency metrics, particularly given that the DCF model assumes single-digit growth in an environment where peer multiples imply far more aggressive expansion trajectories.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $316 | $198 | $138 |
| 3% | $414 | $236 | $157 |
| 4% | $602 | $292 | $183 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $88.88.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $236 (+184.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 151% above its 5-year average P/E of 4.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | $2.0000 | +166.7% |
| 2026-01-08 | $0.7500 | -62.5% |
| 2025-10-08 | $2.0000 | +166.7% |
| 2025-07-08 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-08 | $0.7500 | -25.0% |
| 2025-01-03 | $1.0000 | -24.2% |
| 2019-11-05 | $1.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2019-05-03 | $1.3200 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or VFMO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TIGO shares regardless of Millicom International Cellular S.A.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $84M of passive capital is structurally linked to TIGO through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on TIGO's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Millicom International Cellular S.A. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with TIGO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TIGO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 268 TIGO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 0.5% of the VFMO (VFMO). Across 6 tracked ETFs, approximately 1M shares (0.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest TIGO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TIGO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Millicom International Cellular S.A. over the past year sits near $45.70 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $88.88 trades 94.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TIGO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Millicom International Cellular S.A. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Millicom International Cellular S.A. converts 26% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 74% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 253 | $80.13 | $20,272.89 |
| 2026-05-11 | 95,665 | $80.43 | $7.7M |
| 2026-05-01 | 272 | $84.88 | $23,087.36 |
| 2026-04-28 | 100 | $82.83 | $8,283 |
| 2026-04-21 | 262 | $83.43 | $21,858.66 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,500 | $81.38 | $122,070 |
| 2026-04-16 | 4 | $77.85 | $311.4 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3,572 | $83.11 | $296,868.92 |
| 2026-04-13 | 3,166 | $83.03 | $262,872.98 |
| 2026-04-08 | 43,047 | $81.26 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-06 | 700 | $79.64 | $55,748 |
| 2026-03-19 | 13 | $72.71 | $945.23 |
| 2026-03-06 | 12 | $71.05 | $852.6 |
| 2026-03-04 | 326 | $72.02 | $23,478.52 |
| 2026-03-03 | 24,800 | $75.15 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-02 | 137 | $72.89 | $9,985.93 |
| 2026-02-20 | 17 | $63.95 | $1,087.15 |
| 2026-02-12 | 10 | $64.57 | $645.7 |
| 2026-02-05 | 635 | $63.11 | $40,074.85 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,179 | $62.80 | $136,841.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2,200 | $60.65 | $133,430 |
| 2026-02-02 | 88 | $61.03 | $5,370.64 |
| 2026-01-09 | 3,767 | $51.83 | $195,243.61 |
| 2025-12-22 | 5,316 | $53.73 | $285,628.68 |
| 2025-12-17 | 30,244 | $53.34 | $1.6M |
| 2025-11-24 | 526 | $52.61 | $27,672.86 |
| 2025-11-10 | 1,494 | $47.48 | $70,935.12 |
| 2025-11-06 | 15 | $46.03 | $690.45 |
| 2025-11-05 | 17,081 | $45.81 | $782,480.61 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PPL | 0.273 | 0.312 | Low correlation |
| VRTPX | 0.273 | 0.356 | Low correlation |
| AMT | 0.272 | 0.294 | Low correlation |
| NI | 0.270 | 0.328 | Low correlation |
| HL | 0.270 | 0.283 | Low correlation |
| O | 0.267 | 0.329 | Low correlation |
| AEE | 0.266 | 0.309 | Low correlation |
| CDE | 0.258 | 0.266 | Low correlation |
| ATO | 0.254 | 0.220 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TIGO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.