Walmart Inc. (WMT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWMT trades at 40.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 6.7 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $40 implies 68% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this consumer defensive leader demonstrate a robust capital allocation profile, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of +5.6%, indicating that the firm generates returns significantly exceeding its cost of capital. This efficiency is underpinned by a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 20.6%, driven primarily by high asset turnover at 2.51x rather than aggressive leverage or margin expansion, which sits modestly at 3.1%. Financial integrity appears strong with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 6.6 suggesting low bankruptcy risk, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.72 points to minimal earnings manipulation concerns despite recent revenue growth of only 4.7% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a distinct divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E multiple of 46.1x trades at a substantial premium relative to the sector average of 31.2x, reflecting high investor expectations for future performance. However, discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $41, resulting in an estimated downside of -67.3% against current levels if implied free cash flow growth rates stabilize over the next decade. This steep valuation gap suggests the market is pricing in significantly higher certainty or growth than what traditional DCF parameters currently support, creating a scenario where future earnings surprises will be critical to sustaining multiples.
Risk and return factors reveal conflicting signals regarding forward momentum versus structural positioning. While Fama-French alpha data shows an annualized 32.08% outperformance driven by robust profitability (RMW factor of 0.330), the stock exhibits a negative growth tilt with a Value Factor (HML) of -0.105, indicating it is priced as a high-growth name rather than a value play. Compounding this valuation sensitivity, insider activity over the last ninety days reveals net selling totaling approximately $1.3 billion, which may signal management's view on current pricing or liquidity needs. The synthesis of strong operational fundamentals against elevated multiples and significant insider distribution warrants careful scrutiny regarding mean reversion risks versus continued premium persistence.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $52 | $35 | $26 |
| 3% | $64 | $40 | $29 |
| 4% | $85 | $48 | $33 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $113.06.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $40 (-67.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 19% above its 5-year average P/E of 38.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedWalmart's stock is currently trading slightly above its 50-day moving average, indicating a mild uptick in the short term, while it remains well above the longer-term 200-day moving average, suggesting an overall bullish trend over the past few months. The RSI at 45.5 points to a market that's neither overbought nor oversold, maintaining a balanced momentum with no significant divergence between its short- and long-term averages.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.2480 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-20 | $0.2480 | +5.5% |
| 2025-12-12 | $0.2350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.2350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.2350 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-21 | $0.2350 | +13.0% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.2080 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.2080 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.2080 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.2080 | +9.5% |
| 2023-12-07 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +237,600 | +864.0% | Increased |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | -1,000,000 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +581,900 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -8,353 | -67.6% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +259,032 | +736.6% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +445,300 | +158.7% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -965,117 | -100.0% | Exited |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +108,800 | +233.5% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | -6,700 | -19.6% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +26,300 | +129.6% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -37,100 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -75,318 | -7.2% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VDC or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WMT shares regardless of Walmart Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $62.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to WMT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Walmart Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Walmart Inc. (WMT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with WMT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WMT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 15 WMT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Walmart Inc. (WMT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 16.2% of the VDC (VDC) and 11.2% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 532M shares (6.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest WMT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WMT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Walmart Inc. over the past year sits near $102.50 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $113.06 trades 10.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WMT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Walmart Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Walmart Inc. converts 32% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 68% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 8,382 | $130.35 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-11 | 2,252 | $130.43 | $293,728.36 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,499 | $130.20 | $195,169.8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 4 | $130.08 | $520.32 |
| 2026-05-05 | 150 | $130.33 | $19,549.5 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2,102 | $131.60 | $276,623.2 |
| 2026-05-01 | 14,589 | $131.93 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-28 | 5,808 | $127.59 | $741,042.72 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2,399 | $129.92 | $311,678.08 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1 | $129.98 | $129.98 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4,089 | $127.50 | $521,347.5 |
| 2026-04-17 | 245,340 | $124.82 | $30.6M |
| 2026-04-16 | 2 | $124.76 | $249.52 |
| 2026-04-15 | 36 | $125.05 | $4,501.8 |
| 2026-04-14 | 247,152 | $124.57 | $30.8M |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,450 | $126.77 | $183,816.5 |
| 2026-04-10 | 3,378 | $129.13 | $436,201.14 |
| 2026-04-06 | 173 | $125.79 | $21,761.67 |
| 2026-04-01 | 65 | $124.28 | $8,078.2 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,227,154 | $123.06 | $151.0M |
| 2026-03-25 | 337 | $122.05 | $41,130.85 |
| 2026-03-24 | 387,930 | $120.72 | $46.8M |
| 2026-03-23 | 62,345 | $119.02 | $7.4M |
| 2026-03-20 | 62,326 | $121.09 | $7.5M |
| 2026-03-19 | 48,158 | $121.98 | $5.9M |
| 2026-03-16 | 9,700 | $126.52 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-13 | 58,899 | $125.33 | $7.4M |
| 2026-03-11 | 41,263 | $125.12 | $5.2M |
| 2026-03-10 | 346 | $124.34 | $43,021.64 |
| 2026-03-06 | 16,718 | $123.31 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 725,900 | $94,308,928K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 581,900 | $75,600,448K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 294,200 | $38,222,464K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 265,100 | $34,441,792K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 155,400 | $20,189,568K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 4,000 | $519,680K |
| Tiger Global | 2025-Q4 | 1,000,000 | $214,780,000K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 965,117 | $207,287,829K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 280,600 | $60,267,268K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 46,600 | $10,008,748K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 35,168 | $7,553,383K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 27,500 | $5,906,450K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 12,353 | $2,653,177K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q3 | 1,040,435 | $250,463,918K |
| Tiger Global | 2025-Q3 | 1,000,000 | $240,730,000K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COST | 0.573 | 0.560 | Moderate |
| TJX | 0.411 | 0.355 | Moderate |
| MCD | 0.404 | 0.418 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.382 | 0.402 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.371 | 0.418 | Moderate |
| PG | 0.364 | 0.379 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.346 | 0.394 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.344 | 0.220 | Moderate |
| VMC | 0.344 | 0.409 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WMT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.