O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicORLY trades at 28.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 35.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 4.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $19 implies 80% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of O'Reilly Automotive present a stark dichotomy between operational efficiency and capital structure anomalies. The firm demonstrates exceptional value creation potential, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +27.1%, indicating that operations generate returns significantly above the cost of capital. This strength is underpinned by robust profitability metrics, including a gross margin of 51.6% and a net margin of 14.3%, which align with high Piotroski F-Score (7/9) and Beneish M-Score (-2.48) signals suggesting strong financial health and low earnings manipulation risk. However, the DuPont ROE decomposition reveals a critical distortion: an equity multiplier of -21.67x drives the reported ROE to -332.5%, likely reflecting accounting nuances in leverage or goodwill amortization rather than operational distress. Despite this mechanical anomaly, high Altman Z-Score (4.2) and sustained revenue growth of 6.4% confirm solvency and consistent top-line expansion.
Valuation metrics suggest the market may be pricing in aggressive long-term assumptions that diverge from current DCF models. While the stock trades at a P/E of 30.8x, which is substantially lower than the sector average of 57.0x, implying relative value within its peer group, the discounted cash flow analysis indicates a significant discrepancy. The model calculates a fair value of $19, resulting in an implied downside of -79.6% against current levels, contingent on sustaining a high projected free cash flow growth rate of 15.7% over the next decade. This wide gap between market price and DCF-derived intrinsic value suggests that either the consensus growth expectations are overly optimistic or the cost of capital assumptions in the model differ materially from reality.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators offer mixed signals regarding future alpha generation. The stock exhibits a positive Fama-French annualized alpha of 3.08%, indicating it has outperformed its risk factors historically, specifically driven by strong profitability factor exposure (RMW: 0.252). However, this momentum is tempered by recent insider activity showing $92,681 in net selling over the past ninety days and a neutral stance on the value factor (-0.082 HML). Investors must weigh the impressive risk-adjusted returns and operational dominance against the substantial valuation gap highlighted by DCF analysis and the cautionary signal from insider dispositions before forming an opinion on future price trajectories.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $26 | $16 | $10 |
| 3% | $34 | $19 | $12 |
| 4% | $50 | $24 | $14 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $86.23.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $19 (-79.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 3% above its 5-year average P/E of 30.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of $94.74 is below the 200-day moving average of $97.02, suggesting that Orly (ORLY) may be in a consolidation phase or experiencing downward pressure within an ongoing trend. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53.4, ORLY currently sits slightly above the neutral midpoint of 50, indicating moderate bullish momentum but not overbought conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLY or XRT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ORLY shares regardless of O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to ORLY through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ORLY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ORLY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 ORLY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) and 1.4% of the XRT (XRT). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 119M shares (14.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ORLY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ORLY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. over the past year sits near $91.78 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $86.23 sits 6.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ORLY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. converts 40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 60% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 27.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 5 | $91.35 | $456.75 |
| 2026-05-01 | 208 | $99.40 | $20,675.2 |
| 2026-04-30 | 12,713 | $91.69 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-29 | 436 | $91.57 | $39,924.52 |
| 2026-04-27 | 3 | $93.13 | $279.39 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2 | $92.71 | $185.42 |
| 2026-04-16 | 8,830 | $93.60 | $826,488 |
| 2026-04-15 | 601 | $93.52 | $56,205.52 |
| 2026-04-01 | 104 | $92.31 | $9,600.24 |
| 2026-03-25 | 84 | $87.99 | $7,391.16 |
| 2026-03-23 | 51,132 | $87.30 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-17 | 196,535 | $90.46 | $17.8M |
| 2026-03-03 | 81,108 | $95.03 | $7.7M |
| 2026-02-23 | 4,381 | $93.50 | $409,623.5 |
| 2026-02-19 | 4 | $92.75 | $371 |
| 2026-02-13 | 583 | $95.21 | $55,507.43 |
| 2026-02-12 | 102 | $94.11 | $9,599.22 |
| 2026-01-29 | 90 | $101.37 | $9,123.3 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1 | $99.23 | $99.23 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,100 | $94.70 | $104,170 |
| 2026-01-13 | 3 | $95.60 | $286.8 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1 | $90.39 | $90.39 |
| 2026-01-05 | 111 | $90.34 | $10,027.74 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1 | $91.75 | $91.75 |
| 2025-12-19 | 71 | $91.79 | $6,517.09 |
| 2025-12-17 | 99 | $92.90 | $9,197.1 |
| 2025-12-11 | 109 | $93.63 | $10,205.67 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1 | $98.89 | $98.89 |
| 2025-11-21 | 545 | $99.01 | $53,960.45 |
| 2025-11-18 | 431 | $99.56 | $42,910.36 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AZO | 0.799 | 0.803 | High co-movement |
| TSCO | 0.462 | 0.492 | Moderate |
| WM | 0.445 | 0.358 | Moderate |
| RSG | 0.424 | 0.337 | Moderate |
| GPC | 0.421 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.411 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.405 | 0.435 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.397 | 0.256 | Moderate |
| FE | 0.388 | 0.281 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ORLY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.