AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.6x earnings — a 41% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — AZO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.7. DCF fair value of $1187 implies 66% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of AutoZone, Inc. present a distinct dichotomy between exceptional capital efficiency and complex equity structure mechanics. The company generates robust returns on invested capital with an ROIC-WACC spread of +22.4%, indicating strong value creation potential relative to the cost of funds. This high profitability is underpinned by superior operating metrics, including a net margin of 13.2% and a gross margin of 52.6%, while maintaining a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 2.9 that suggests moderate financial stability with low earnings manipulation risk per the Beneish M-Score of -2.37. However, the DuPont ROE decomposition reveals a critical structural anomaly: while margins and asset turnover are healthy at 13.2% and 0.98x respectively, the negative equity multiplier of -5.67x drives overall ROE to -73.2%. This leverage inversion implies significant off-balance-sheet financing or special purpose entity accounting that distorts traditional return-on-equity analysis despite the underlying operational strength evidenced by revenue growth and profitability factors.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significantly higher growth expectations than current fundamentals support, creating a notable disconnect between intrinsic value and trading price. The stock trades at 23.8x earnings, substantially below the sector average of 57.0x, yet this discount appears inconsistent with its robust profitability factor (RMW) of 0.304 and high ROIC spread. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $1,505, which represents a -55.4% premium to current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 6.4%. This valuation gap indicates the market may be pricing in accelerated expansion or unique strategic advantages not fully captured by standard DCF inputs, despite the company's modest revenue growth of only 2.4% year-over-year and its classification as a value factor tilt stock with an HML score of -0.135.
Risk assessment highlights divergent signals regarding future performance trajectories and insider sentiment. The Fama-French alpha of 2.92% annually suggests the stock has historically outperformed risk-adjusted benchmarks, yet recent insider activity shows $34.17 million in net selling over the past ninety days, a signal that often precedes downward revisions or indicates management views current valuations as less attractive than future prospects. While the Altman Z-Score of 2.9 provides some buffer against distress and the Beneish M-Score confirms earnings reliability, the combination of negative equity leverage in the DuPont model and heavy insider selling warrants caution regarding the sustainability of reported returns versus actual cash generation capabilities for shareholders.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $1441 | $935 | $561 |
| 3% | $1981 | $1187 | $680 |
| 4% | $3061 | $1585 | $841 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $3029.36.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $1187 (-66.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% above its 5-year average P/E of 24.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAutoZone, Inc. is currently trading at $3321.15 within the consumer cyclical sector, a price point that warrants close observation regarding its relationship with key moving averages to gauge trend direction. Without specific average data points in this snapshot, the immediate focus shifts to interpreting short-term momentum through available metrics. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical barometer for whether recent price action is driven by aggressive buying or potential exhaustion, though exact RSI values are not provided here to prevent speculative extrapolation. In general technical analysis frameworks, prices sustained above their moving averages often indicate an uptrend where bullish momentum may be prevailing, whereas positions below these lines can suggest bearish pressure or a corrective phase. The current valuation of $3321.15 places the stock in a specific context relative to its historical trajectory and broader market conditions for consumer discretionary names. If the price were holding firmly above established moving averages, it would imply that recent upward momentum has not yet reversed, potentially signaling continued strength in demand or profitability expectations unique to this retailer. Conversely, if technical indicators suggested divergence between price action and trend lines, it might hint at weakening short-term sentiment despite the high absolute share price. Analysts typically monitor these dynamics to understand if the current rally is supported by fundamental earnings growth or merely speculative flows, as the distinction significantly alters future volatility expectations for such a large-cap entity in this sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XRT or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AZO shares regardless of AutoZone, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to AZO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AutoZone, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AZO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AZO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 AZO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.3% of the XRT (XRT) and 1.3% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 2M shares (13.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AZO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AZO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AutoZone, Inc. over the past year sits near $3694.99 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $3029.36 sits 18.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AZO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AutoZone, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AutoZone, Inc. converts 42% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 58% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 21.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 133 | $3409.81 | $453,504.73 |
| 2026-05-12 | 12 | $3427.80 | $41,133.6 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1 | $3514.47 | $3,514.47 |
| 2026-04-09 | 86 | $3464.93 | $297,983.98 |
| 2026-04-07 | 624 | $3438.35 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 2 | $3345.84 | $6,691.68 |
| 2026-03-17 | 5,043 | $3488.88 | $17.6M |
| 2026-03-02 | 7 | $3755.58 | $26,289.06 |
| 2026-02-17 | 758 | $3858.16 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-09 | 123 | $3681.26 | $452,794.98 |
| 2026-02-02 | 5 | $3704.29 | $18,521.45 |
| 2026-01-30 | 41 | $3703.76 | $151,854.16 |
| 2026-01-28 | 3,201 | $3799.99 | $12.2M |
| 2025-12-23 | 55 | $3413.81 | $187,759.55 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1,200 | $3417.42 | $4.1M |
| 2025-12-15 | 557 | $3445.71 | $1.9M |
| 2025-12-09 | 3 | $3766.96 | $11,300.88 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1 | $3822.92 | $3,822.92 |
| 2025-12-02 | 3 | $3946.99 | $11,840.97 |
| 2025-11-26 | 27 | $3948.07 | $106,597.89 |
| 2025-11-19 | 621 | $3827.89 | $2.4M |
| 2025-11-03 | 24 | $3674.43 | $88,186.32 |
| 2025-10-23 | 84 | $3997.26 | $335,769.84 |
| 2025-10-17 | 11 | $4007.91 | $44,087.01 |
| 2025-10-14 | 1,087 | $4097.97 | $4.5M |
| 2025-10-08 | 2 | $4085.93 | $8,171.86 |
| 2025-10-03 | 1 | $4253.71 | $4,253.71 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ORLY | 0.799 | 0.803 | High co-movement |
| TSCO | 0.387 | 0.403 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.378 | 0.407 | Moderate |
| GPC | 0.376 | 0.363 | Moderate |
| WM | 0.370 | 0.289 | Moderate |
| LOW | 0.349 | 0.370 | Moderate |
| RSG | 0.345 | 0.246 | Moderate |
| PSA | 0.344 | 0.324 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.328 | 0.250 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AZO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.