Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWYNN trades at 29.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 35.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 1.2. DCF fair value of $22 implies 78% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Wynn Resorts reveal a precarious balance between capital efficiency and financial leverage. While the company generates an ROIC that narrowly exceeds its cost of capital by 0.3%, indicating minimal value creation from invested assets, this metric is heavily distorted by aggressive debt usage rather than operational intensity. The DuPont decomposition highlights this structural fragility: a positive net margin of 4.6% and moderate asset turnover are negated by an equity multiplier of -12.71x, driving the ROE into negative territory at -31.7%. This leverage-driven distortion is corroborated by an Altman Z-Score of 1.2, signaling potential distress risks, although a Beneish M-Score of -2.53 suggests earnings are not being manipulated downward to artificially inflate valuation multiples.
Valuation metrics present a significant disconnect between current pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a P/E ratio of 33.1x, the stock is slightly below the sector average of 34.6x, yet this premium persists despite stagnant revenue growth of just 0.1% year-over-year. More critically, discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value of $25, suggesting current market prices embed substantial downside risk with an implied discount of nearly 76%. This mispricing is further underscored by the company's negative Fama-French alpha of -6.83%, indicating that over time, the stock has underperformed relative to its risk factors, specifically failing to generate returns commensurate with its exposure to value and profitability premiums.
Risk-adjusted performance data suggests a challenging outlook for equity holders in this consumer cyclical sector. The negative Fama-French alpha indicates persistent underperformance against factor benchmarks, while the low Piotroski score of 4/9 reflects weakening financial health or deteriorating fundamentals compared to historical norms. Although insider activity remains neutral with no significant flow over the last ninety days, the combination of high leverage, minimal growth momentum, and negative risk-adjusted returns creates a scenario where capital allocation efficiency is compromised by balance sheet constraints rather than operational expansion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 0% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $40 | $9 | $0 |
| 3% | $70 | $22 | $0 |
| 4% | $130 | $43 | $4 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $104.62.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $22 (-78.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 9% below its 5-year average P/E of 36.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedWynn Resorts is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a recent decline in price compared to short-term and long-term trends. The RSI reading of 33 suggests that the stock may be approaching oversold territory, which could imply weakening momentum but also potentially signaling a turnaround point for buyers.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-24 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-19 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-17 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-17 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VBK or XLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WYNN shares regardless of Wynn Resorts, Limited's individual fundamentals. We estimate $924M of passive capital is structurally linked to WYNN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on WYNN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Wynn Resorts, Limited to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WYNN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 18 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WYNN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 WYNN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Wynn Resorts, Limited (WYNN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.3% of the VBK (VBK) and 0.2% of the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY). Across 18 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (9.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest WYNN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 18 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WYNN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Wynn Resorts, Limited over the past year sits near $106.95 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $104.62 sits 2.2% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WYNN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Wynn Resorts, Limited convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Wynn Resorts, Limited converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 19,868 | $97.25 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-12 | 21,482 | $99.37 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-05 | 193 | $103.44 | $19,963.92 |
| 2026-04-30 | 8,465 | $104.24 | $882,391.6 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,400 | $109.19 | $152,866 |
| 2026-04-13 | 262 | $104.00 | $27,248 |
| 2026-04-09 | 9,041 | $105.24 | $951,474.84 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,019 | $102.03 | $103,968.57 |
| 2026-04-02 | 3,004 | $102.60 | $308,210.4 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,199 | $101.89 | $122,166.11 |
| 2026-03-25 | 8 | $102.77 | $822.16 |
| 2026-03-24 | 19,767 | $101.13 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,345 | $99.98 | $134,473.1 |
| 2026-03-20 | 598 | $103.16 | $61,689.68 |
| 2026-03-17 | 10,448 | $100.63 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-16 | 47,297 | $100.43 | $4.8M |
| 2026-03-12 | 647 | $100.07 | $64,745.29 |
| 2026-02-25 | 164 | $109.44 | $17,948.16 |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,417 | $116.31 | $164,811.27 |
| 2026-02-09 | 800 | $117.96 | $94,368 |
| 2026-02-04 | 4 | $109.27 | $437.08 |
| 2026-01-23 | 3,774 | $115.06 | $434,236.44 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,999 | $114.33 | $228,545.67 |
| 2026-01-16 | 254 | $117.37 | $29,811.98 |
| 2026-01-15 | 3,201 | $116.88 | $374,132.88 |
| 2026-01-13 | 338 | $116.84 | $39,491.92 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,507 | $118.27 | $178,232.89 |
| 2026-01-08 | 3,904 | $116.37 | $454,308.48 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,932 | $127.94 | $247,180.08 |
| 2025-12-12 | 2,937 | $124.85 | $366,684.45 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LVS | 0.700 | 0.626 | High co-movement |
| MGM | 0.627 | 0.527 | Moderate |
| COF | 0.515 | 0.501 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.506 | 0.476 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.504 | 0.518 | Moderate |
| APTV | 0.497 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| HST | 0.492 | 0.429 | Moderate |
| TFC | 0.490 | 0.450 | Moderate |
| DAL | 0.485 | 0.523 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WYNN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.