Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicXEL trades at 22.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.0.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this utility operator present a distinct capital efficiency challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -2.9%, indicating that current returns fall short of the cost of capital despite a robust 13.8% net margin and accelerating revenue growth of 9.1%. This apparent contradiction is resolved through DuPont decomposition, where high profitability is entirely leveraged rather than operational; an equity multiplier of 3.45x drives an ROE of 8.6%, while asset turnover remains low at 0.18x, suggesting earnings are amplified by debt rather than superior capital generation efficiency. Credit and financial health metrics further complicate the picture: a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate fundamental strength, yet the Altman Z-Score of 1.0 flags proximity to distress territory, contrasting sharply with a clean Beneish M-Score of -2.54 that effectively rules out earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in growth expectations that may not align with the company's capital return profile. The current P/E ratio of 23.6x sits slightly above the sector average of 22.5x, implying investors are anticipating expansion beyond what a negative ROIC-WACC spread typically supports for mature infrastructure assets. While DCF models generally struggle to justify valuations when returns consistently underperform the cost of capital, the premium valuation here reflects confidence in future margin accretion or rate base growth rather than current operational efficiency. This disconnect highlights that the stock's price is likely driven by defensive positioning and regulatory tailwinds inherent to the utility sector rather than intrinsic value creation based on today's cash flow generation capabilities.
Risk factor analysis reveals a nuanced divergence between traditional alpha drivers and recent insider sentiment. The security exhibits strong momentum characteristics with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 7.44% and a positive Value Factor tilt, yet it simultaneously registers a negative Profitability Factor (RMW) of -0.366, underscoring the weakness in capital efficiency relative to peers. This mixed signal is reinforced by insider activity over the last ninety days, which shows $1,401,496 in net selling; while not definitive on its own, this outflow coincides with a Z-Score hovering near distress levels and negative spread economics, warranting caution regarding capital allocation discipline despite the company's clean earnings quality indicators.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% above its 5-year average P/E of 22.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of XEL is above the 200-day moving average, indicating a potential uptrend in the stock. The RSI stands at 51.4, suggesting that near-term momentum is balanced but leans slightly positive, without overbought conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.5930 | +4.0% |
| 2025-12-29 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.5700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.5700 | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-06 | $0.5480 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.5480 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.5480 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.5480 | +5.4% |
| 2023-12-27 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell XEL shares regardless of Xcel Energy Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to XEL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Xcel Energy Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with XEL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
XEL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 XEL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.4% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 3.1% of the VPU (VPU). Across 33 tracked ETFs, approximately 122M shares (19.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest XEL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 33 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
XEL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Xcel Energy Inc. over the past year sits near $79.72 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $77.87 sits 2.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
XEL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Xcel Energy Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Xcel Energy Inc. converts -110% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 210% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6 | $79.90 | $479.4 |
| 2026-05-11 | 94 | $79.39 | $7,462.66 |
| 2026-05-08 | 628 | $80.43 | $50,510.04 |
| 2026-05-07 | 267 | $80.55 | $21,506.85 |
| 2026-05-06 | 612 | $81.45 | $49,847.4 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,659 | $81.17 | $134,661.03 |
| 2026-05-04 | 10,348 | $82.58 | $854,537.84 |
| 2026-05-01 | 136 | $82.95 | $11,281.2 |
| 2026-04-29 | 51 | $79.48 | $4,053.48 |
| 2026-04-27 | 4 | $79.15 | $316.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | 15,107 | $78.11 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-22 | 11,149 | $79.08 | $881,662.92 |
| 2026-04-17 | 347 | $81.05 | $28,124.35 |
| 2026-04-16 | 6 | $78.65 | $471.9 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $79.83 | $478.98 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1 | $80.45 | $80.45 |
| 2026-04-13 | 72,058 | $82.38 | $5.9M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1 | $82.77 | $82.77 |
| 2026-04-09 | 169 | $81.46 | $13,766.74 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1 | $80.54 | $80.54 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1 | $80.74 | $80.74 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1 | $78.09 | $78.09 |
| 2026-03-25 | 59 | $77.96 | $4,599.64 |
| 2026-03-24 | 4,113 | $76.95 | $316,495.35 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $76.77 | $460.62 |
| 2026-03-17 | 27,587 | $81.63 | $2.3M |
| 2026-03-16 | 120,695 | $81.91 | $9.9M |
| 2026-03-13 | 482,556 | $80.82 | $39.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 120 | $83.36 | $10,003.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 12 | $83.35 | $1,000.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LNT | 0.786 | 0.780 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.745 | 0.767 | High co-movement |
| AEE | 0.733 | 0.766 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.720 | 0.699 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.710 | 0.716 | High co-movement |
| DUK | 0.708 | 0.737 | High co-movement |
| EVRG | 0.695 | 0.757 | Moderate |
| FE | 0.685 | 0.709 | Moderate |
| SO | 0.670 | 0.682 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare XEL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.