American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAAL trades at 47.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.7.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of American Airlines Group Inc. reveal a capital structure under significant strain, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.7%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of equity. This negative return on invested capital is compounded by a DuPont-decomposed ROE of -3.0%, driven not merely by low margins but by extreme financial leverage; while asset turnover sits at 0.88x and net margin remains negligible at 0.2%, the equity multiplier has surged to -16.57x, signaling substantial debt burden or negative book value dynamics. Credit risk metrics further underscore this fragility, with an Altman Z-Score of 0.7 falling well below the distress threshold, whereas the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.55 suggest limited earnings manipulation but also a lack of fundamental strength or value creation over recent periods.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence from historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E ratio at 66.6x compared against an industrials average of 45.2x. This premium valuation appears disconnected from operational performance, as revenue growth has stagnated year-over-year at just 0.8% while net income remains virtually flat at a 0.2% margin. The market's pricing seems to incorporate aggressive growth expectations that are not currently materializing in the P&L, creating a scenario where high multiples coexist with minimal earnings expansion and negative capital efficiency.
Factor analysis highlights substantial downside exposure relative to risk-adjusted benchmarks. The stock exhibits a Fama-French Alpha of -13.35% annually, indicating persistent underperformance after adjusting for market, size, and value factors. Specifically, the company displays significant weakness in both the Value factor (HML: -0.189) and Profitability factor (RMW: -0.205), confirming a growth tilt that is failing to generate excess returns despite elevated pricing. With insider flow remaining neutral over the last 90 days, there is no clear signal of management confidence or distress selling to offset these structural headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% above its 5-year average P/E of 66.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican Airlines Group Inc. is currently trading at $13.85 within the Industrials sector, presenting a specific technical snapshot that warrants observation regarding momentum and trend alignment. Without access to precise moving average values or Relative Strength Index readings in this dataset, a definitive conclusion on whether price action sits strictly above long-term averages or if short-term overbought conditions exist cannot be mathematically confirmed from these figures alone. The current valuation level suggests the market is pricing in specific operational realities for the carrier, yet the absence of comparative average data prevents an immediate assessment of bullish or bearish trend strength based solely on position relative to key support zones. In the broader context of technical analysis, determining if the stock is exhibiting positive momentum typically requires verifying that price consistently hovers above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages while the RSI remains within a neutral to upward-sloping range. Conversely, sustained trading below these benchmarks often signals weakening trend direction or potential accumulation phases depending on volume confirmation. Since this summary relies exclusively on the provided single data point rather than a full charting suite with calculated indicators, any inference about immediate momentum shifts would be speculative without corroborating technical metrics such as oscillator levels or average crossovers. Market participants should therefore interpret the $13.85 price level as a static reference point that requires further analysis against dynamic averages to gauge true trend health. The lack of explicit indicator data means the current setup does not inherently confirm either strong upward
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-04 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-11-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-08-06 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-05-07 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2019-02-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-11-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-08-06 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-05-07 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2018-02-05 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2017-11-10 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2017-08-10 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2017-05-12 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AAL shares regardless of American Airlines Group Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to AAL through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American Airlines Group Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies RXO INC (RXO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AAL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AAL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 AAL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.8% of the XTN (XTN) and 0.5% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 77M shares (11.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AAL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AAL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American Airlines Group Inc. over the past year sits near $11.53 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $13.93 trades 20.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AAL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does American Airlines Group Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
American Airlines Group Inc. converts -44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 144% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 7,757 | $12.71 | $98,591.47 |
| 2026-05-13 | 196,636 | $12.69 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-12 | 226,420 | $12.79 | $2.9M |
| 2026-05-11 | 7,420 | $13.35 | $99,057 |
| 2026-05-08 | 38,891 | $13.18 | $512,583.38 |
| 2026-05-07 | 39,706 | $12.94 | $513,795.64 |
| 2026-05-05 | 9,778 | $11.81 | $115,478.18 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2,000 | $11.84 | $23,680 |
| 2026-05-01 | 10,229 | $11.71 | $119,781.59 |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,291 | $11.31 | $14,601.21 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,633 | $11.64 | $30,648.12 |
| 2026-04-28 | 89 | $11.68 | $1,039.52 |
| 2026-04-27 | 14,169 | $12.10 | $171,444.9 |
| 2026-04-23 | 1,507,364 | $11.50 | $17.3M |
| 2026-04-22 | 68,859 | $11.77 | $810,470.43 |
| 2026-04-20 | 41,386 | $12.78 | $528,913.08 |
| 2026-04-17 | 389,574 | $12.27 | $4.8M |
| 2026-04-16 | 394,087 | $12.17 | $4.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 986 | $12.13 | $11,960.18 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,790 | $11.23 | $20,101.7 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2,735 | $11.32 | $30,960.2 |
| 2026-04-10 | 491,430 | $11.37 | $5.6M |
| 2026-04-09 | 252,398 | $11.41 | $2.9M |
| 2026-04-06 | 2,892 | $10.84 | $31,349.28 |
| 2026-03-31 | 71,202 | $10.18 | $724,836.36 |
| 2026-03-27 | 640 | $10.71 | $6,854.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 1,170 | $10.71 | $12,530.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | 71 | $10.81 | $767.51 |
| 2026-03-23 | 364,137 | $10.43 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-20 | 40,827 | $10.80 | $440,931.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DAL | 0.847 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| UAL | 0.844 | 0.848 | High co-movement |
| LUV | 0.690 | 0.624 | Moderate |
| CCL | 0.623 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| FNB | 0.606 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.598 | 0.551 | Moderate |
| ONB | 0.593 | 0.519 | Moderate |
| WTFC | 0.590 | 0.557 | Moderate |
| USB | 0.589 | 0.563 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AAL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.