Agree Realty Corporation (ADC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicADC trades at 40.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 47.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.7.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this real estate operator reveal a significant capital efficiency challenge, underscored by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.2%, indicating that current returns on invested capital fall short of the cost of equity and debt financing. Despite robust top-line momentum with revenue growing 16.4% year-over-year supported by exceptional gross margins at 87.7%, profitability is heavily leveraged; a DuPont decomposition shows ROE driven primarily by an elevated equity multiplier of 1.56x rather than operational leverage or asset turnover, which remains low at 0.07x. Financial health metrics present a mixed picture: while the Beneish M-Score of -2.50 suggests management earnings are unlikely to be manipulated and the Piotroski F-Score sits in a moderate zone at 5/9, an Altman Z-Score of 1.6 flags potential distress risks typical for capital-intensive sectors under stress.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive growth expectations that may not align with current return profiles. The stock trades at a P/E of 44.2x, which remains substantially below the sector average of 84.5x yet still implies high future earnings expansion given the implied growth required to justify such multiples relative to its depressed ROIC spread. While the Fama-French alpha of 3.81% annually indicates strong performance after adjusting for market and size factors, the negative Profitability Factor (RMW) score of -0.036 suggests these returns are not being sustained by superior operational efficiency compared to peers. The value tilt in the HML factor at 0.231 further contextualizes that while cheaper than the sector average, it still commands a premium over traditional deep-value real estate names.
Recent insider activity shows $1,730,980 net buying over the last ninety days, providing some contrarian signal of confidence from those with superior information regarding long-term cash flow potential. However, investors must weigh this internal conviction against the structural capital constraints highlighted by the negative ROIC spread and the moderate Altman Z-Score. The convergence of high valuation multiples, suboptimal capital returns relative to cost of funds, and lingering balance sheet fragility creates a scenario where upside depends entirely on margin expansion or significant deleveraging to improve the return profile before it can sustainably justify current pricing levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 19% above its 5-year average P/E of 37.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAgree Realty Corporation is currently trading at $75.46, a price point that requires contextual analysis against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction relative to recent history. Without specific average values provided in the immediate data set, the precise relationship between current pricing and longer-term trends remains undefined for this snapshot, though any position above key moving averages would typically signal bullish momentum while below them suggests bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term velocity; however, since specific RSI readings are absent from the provided metrics, one cannot definitively assert whether the stock is in an overbought state indicating potential exhaustion or oversold conditions hinting at a possible rebound. In this sector of real estate investment trusts, price action often lags broader market shifts, making the interpretation of momentum indicators particularly sensitive to volume and timeframes not explicitly detailed here. The current trading level sits isolated from specific comparative benchmarks in this summary, meaning any assessment of trend strength relies on external confirmation of how $75.46 aligns with historical support or resistance zones derived from moving averages. Observers should note that the absence of explicit RSI values prevents a clear conclusion regarding immediate short-term acceleration or deceleration, leaving the momentum profile ambiguous without further granular data points to validate directional bias.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.2670 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.2670 | +1.9% |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.2620 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.2620 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-30 | $0.2620 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.2620 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.2620 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.2620 | +2.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.2560 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.2560 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | $0.2560 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.2560 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VFMV or VNQ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ADC shares regardless of Agree Realty Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $864M of passive capital is structurally linked to ADC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ADC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Agree Realty Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ADC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ADC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 ADC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.6% of the VFMV (VFMV) and 0.5% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 12M shares (9.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ADC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ADC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Agree Realty Corporation over the past year sits near $71.54 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $72.68 trades 1.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 5 | $75.16 | $375.8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 18 | $76.39 | $1,375.02 |
| 2026-04-29 | 801 | $76.85 | $61,556.85 |
| 2026-04-27 | 216 | $76.69 | $16,565.04 |
| 2026-04-20 | 46,561 | $79.46 | $3.7M |
| 2026-04-06 | 19 | $76.61 | $1,455.59 |
| 2026-03-31 | 3,916 | $74.97 | $293,582.52 |
| 2026-03-27 | 12 | $74.40 | $892.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,767 | $75.24 | $208,189.08 |
| 2026-02-23 | 96,444 | $78.24 | $7.5M |
| 2026-02-19 | 83,641 | $76.69 | $6.4M |
| 2026-02-05 | 3 | $73.89 | $221.67 |
| 2026-01-14 | 11,477 | $71.41 | $819,572.57 |
| 2025-12-30 | 421 | $72.56 | $30,547.76 |
| 2025-12-26 | 5 | $72.40 | $362 |
| 2025-12-24 | 4,166 | $72.04 | $300,118.64 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,305 | $72.10 | $94,090.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1,877 | $72.17 | $135,463.09 |
| 2025-12-17 | 722 | $71.06 | $51,305.32 |
| 2025-12-16 | 722 | $71.85 | $51,875.7 |
| 2025-12-10 | 5 | $71.30 | $356.5 |
| 2025-12-09 | 31,112 | $72.69 | $2.3M |
| 2025-11-20 | 12 | $73.25 | $879 |
| 2025-11-05 | 542 | $72.34 | $39,208.28 |
| 2025-11-03 | 4,539 | $73.01 | $331,392.39 |
| 2025-10-31 | 695 | $72.87 | $50,644.65 |
| 2025-10-28 | 442 | $74.96 | $33,132.32 |
| 2025-10-27 | 5 | $74.80 | $374 |
| 2025-10-23 | 155 | $75.14 | $11,646.7 |
| 2025-10-17 | 23,083 | $74.55 | $1.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| O | 0.719 | 0.678 | High co-movement |
| WPC | 0.665 | 0.644 | Moderate |
| VICI | 0.577 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.556 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.539 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.534 | 0.510 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.529 | 0.492 | Moderate |
| ELS | 0.528 | 0.498 | Moderate |
| GLPI | 0.526 | 0.506 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ADC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.