AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 14.2x earnings — a 61% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — AU is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 8.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $282 implies 159% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAngloGold Ashanti demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a substantial 17.5% spread between its return on invested capital of 26.4% and weighted average cost of capital at 8.9%, indicating highly efficient capital deployment. This efficiency is underpinned by exceptional profitability metrics, including net margins of 26.7% and gross margins near 50%, which drive an elevated ROE despite the value factor (HML) showing a -0.250 growth tilt. Creditworthiness appears strong with an Altman Z-Score of 8.3, while financial integrity is reinforced by a low Beneish M-Score of -3.09 and a near-perfect Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. However, the profitability factor (RMW) registers at -0.750, suggesting potential headwinds or structural shifts in earnings power that warrant scrutiny alongside these otherwise superior fundamentals.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where current multiples diverge significantly from historical norms and sector averages. The stock trades at 21.1x forward earnings, representing a 165% premium over its five-year average of 8.0x while remaining below the broader Basic Materials sector mean of 37.3x. While discounted cash flow analysis implies substantial upside with a fair value estimate of $338 and an implied growth rate of only 2.8%, this valuation gap suggests the market may be pricing in aggressive future expansion not yet reflected in current free cash flow dynamics. The disconnect between low implied growth assumptions and high multiple compression relative to history indicates that investor sentiment is currently more optimistic than strict fundamental models suggest.
Risk assessment reveals a compelling anomaly with an annual Fama-French alpha of 74.56%, signaling significant outperformance independent of market beta, though this must be weighed against the negative profitability factor delta. With insider activity remaining neutral over the last ninety days, there is no immediate signal of management confidence or distress from internal stakeholders. The combination of high alpha and strong credit metrics suggests a security with distinct risk-adjusted characteristics, yet the weak RMW factor implies that future earnings sustainability remains an open question despite current operational excellence.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 71% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.9% | 8.9% | 10.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $356 | $247 | $187 |
| 3% | $437 | $282 | $206 |
| 4% | $574 | $332 | $231 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $91.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $282 (+158.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 160% above its 5-year average P/E of 8.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAngloGold Ashanti's current positioning at $92.24 within the Basic Materials sector presents a complex risk profile where price stability must be weighed against underlying volatility drivers. The fundamental backdrop of precious metals often introduces significant market noise, meaning that any observed momentum may lack structural depth if it is not supported by sustained capital inflows or macroeconomic shifts favorable to gold mining equities. Without corroborating data on volume trends or relative strength indicators, the current price level could represent a temporary consolidation rather than a definitive trend reversal, leaving the asset susceptible to sharp corrections should broader commodity prices weaken. The interplay between drawdown potential and sector-specific volatility suggests that risk dynamics are currently fragile rather than robust. In an environment where basic materials face cyclical headwinds or geopolitical uncertainty, technical setups based solely on price levels can be misleading if they ignore the inherent leverage of leveraged hedges or rising input costs typical for miners. The absence of clear upward momentum confirmation implies that any recent gains might be vulnerable to sudden reversals driven by external shocks unrelated to the stock's immediate valuation metrics. Ultimately, the technical snapshot indicates a state of equilibrium fraught with uncertainty rather than a confirmed breakout pattern. Investors must recognize that without additional confluence from broader market sentiment or sector-wide catalysts, the current price action may simply reflect short-term liquidity fluctuations. The potential for significant downside remains if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further, highlighting the necessity of rigorous risk management strategies when navigating assets in this volatile segment where
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $1.1600 | -32.9% |
| 2026-03-13 | $1.7300 | +90.1% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.9100 | +13.7% |
| 2025-08-22 | $0.8000 | +540.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.1250 | -81.9% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.6900 | +213.6% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.2200 | +15.8% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.1900 | +413.5% |
| 2023-08-24 | $0.0370 | -79.1% |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.1770 | -39.8% |
| 2022-08-25 | $0.2940 | +102.8% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYM or VFMO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AU shares regardless of AngloGold Ashanti plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $88M of passive capital is structurally linked to AU through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AU's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AngloGold Ashanti plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde PLC (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AU. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AU Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 1025 AU shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.5% of the IYM (IYM) and 0.3% of the VFMO (VFMO). Across 5 tracked ETFs, approximately 0M shares (0.1% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AU Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 5 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AU Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AngloGold Ashanti plc over the past year sits near $43.80 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $91.85 trades 109.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AU Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AngloGold Ashanti plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AngloGold Ashanti plc converts 58% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 17.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 673 | $104.33 | $70,214.09 |
| 2026-05-12 | 32 | $108.34 | $3,466.88 |
| 2026-05-11 | 435 | $107.03 | $46,558.05 |
| 2026-05-08 | 20,861 | $100.23 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-07 | 498 | $98.60 | $49,102.8 |
| 2026-05-05 | 500 | $90.69 | $45,345 |
| 2026-05-04 | 191 | $92.76 | $17,717.16 |
| 2026-04-30 | 3,968 | $90.47 | $358,984.96 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,581 | $93.95 | $242,484.95 |
| 2026-04-28 | 377 | $98.23 | $37,032.71 |
| 2026-04-27 | 387 | $99.30 | $38,429.1 |
| 2026-04-22 | 72 | $100.45 | $7,232.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 17,859 | $109.15 | $1.9M |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,105 | $109.12 | $120,577.6 |
| 2026-04-09 | 148 | $107.42 | $15,898.16 |
| 2026-04-06 | 37,496 | $101.22 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-31 | 101,119 | $90.56 | $9.2M |
| 2026-03-30 | 195,270 | $89.17 | $17.4M |
| 2026-03-27 | 6,234 | $85.73 | $534,440.82 |
| 2026-03-26 | 3,280 | $89.55 | $293,724 |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,904 | $85.81 | $249,192.24 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2,883 | $85.60 | $246,784.8 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,918 | $92.39 | $177,204.02 |
| 2026-03-13 | 3,197 | $104.70 | $334,725.9 |
| 2026-03-12 | 154 | $106.27 | $16,365.58 |
| 2026-03-10 | 749 | $108.90 | $81,566.1 |
| 2026-03-06 | 68,750 | $107.89 | $7.4M |
| 2026-03-05 | 68,925 | $113.14 | $7.8M |
| 2026-03-03 | 4,310 | $128.26 | $552,800.6 |
| 2026-03-02 | 26,590 | $127.77 | $3.4M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GB00BRXH2664 | 1.000 | 1.000 | High co-movement |
| GFI | 0.900 | 0.904 | High co-movement |
| NEM | 0.817 | 0.849 | High co-movement |
| RGLD | 0.791 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| GB00BL6K5J42 | 0.772 | 0.756 | High co-movement |
| GB00B2QPKJ12 | 0.633 | 0.615 | Moderate |
| HL | 0.618 | 0.715 | Moderate |
| CDE | 0.614 | 0.719 | Moderate |
| MXP554091415 | 0.550 | 0.595 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AU to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.