Bunge Global SA (BG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBG trades at 32.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. Beneish M-Score of -1.53 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economic profile of Bunge Global SA reveals a company generating returns that fall short of its cost of capital, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.2%. Despite this negative efficiency metric, the DuPont decomposition illustrates how earnings per share are constructed: a razor-thin net margin of 1.2% is amplified by robust asset turnover of 1.58x and moderate leverage at 2.56x to yield an ROE of 4.7%. This operational structure is corroborated by weak Piotroski F-Score fundamentals (3/9) and a distress-prone Altman Z-Score of 2.9, suggesting potential fragility in financial stability despite the low Beneish M-Score of -1.53 which indicates limited earnings manipulation risk. The divergence between these structural weaknesses and reported revenue growth of 32.4% highlights a complex operational environment where top-line expansion has not yet translated into improved capital efficiency or profitability quality.
Valuation metrics present a nuanced picture relative to historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E ratio of 26.3x trading significantly below the sector average of 34.4x. This discount implies that the market is pricing in elevated downside risks associated with the company's negative ROIC spread and distress indicators rather than purely fundamental value destruction. While a DCF analysis would typically require assumptions about future margin expansion to justify current multiples, the existing valuation suggests investors are demanding a substantial risk premium for the perceived lack of capital allocation efficiency. The market appears to be discounting the stock based on its inability to generate returns exceeding the hurdle rate, even as it trades at a relative bargain compared to broader consumer defensive peers.
Risk factor analysis introduces conflicting signals regarding future performance potential and shareholder alignment. The stock exhibits an exceptionally high Fama-French Alpha of 40.50% annually, indicating strong outperformance independent of market beta, while simultaneously holding a positive Value Factor (HML) tilt that aligns with its undervalued status relative to the sector. However, this quantitative strength is counterbalanced by recent insider activity showing $336,889 in net selling over the last 90 days and neutral profitability factor scores (-0.009 RMW), which may signal management caution regarding near-term earnings sustainability or capital deployment strategy. The convergence of high alpha generation with insider outflows creates a divergent risk-reward dynamic that warrants close monitoring as market conditions evolve.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 1% above its 5-year average P/E of 25.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBunge Global SA currently trades at $122.45, a price point that reflects the market's valuation of this consumer defensive sector leader without indicating immediate directional bias from larger participants. The absence of specific moving average crossover data or volume metrics in the provided dataset prevents a definitive assessment of whether institutional capital is aggressively accumulating or distributing shares around this level. Typically, sustained upward momentum accompanied by rising volume suggests growing confidence among large holders, whereas declining price action on diminishing volume might signal waning interest; however, without these concurrent signals, one cannot ascertain if major players are positioning for long-term appreciation or awaiting further catalysts before committing additional capital at current valuations. Institutional behavior is often inferred through the interplay of price trends and trading activity, neither of which offers a complete picture in this isolated snapshot. If significant entities were actively building positions, one might expect to see support holding firm above key psychological levels with increasing transaction sizes during dips, yet such confirmation requires data beyond the current share price alone. Conversely, if larger investors were reducing exposure, selling pressure would likely manifest as lower highs and shrinking volume profiles, which also remain unverified here. Consequently, the technical landscape at $122.45 appears neutral regarding institutional intent, leaving it to market observers to monitor subsequent price movements and volume patterns to determine whether major players view this asset as undervalued or overvalued relative to its defensive characteristics.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.7200 | +2.9% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-19 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.7000 | +2.9% |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-19 | $0.6800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-17 | $0.6800 | +2.6% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.6630 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.6630 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $0.6630 | +6.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DVY or XLP, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BG shares regardless of Bunge Global SA's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to BG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Bunge Global SA to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Bunge Global SA (BG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with BG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 BG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Bunge Global SA (BG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the iShares Select Dividend ETF (DVY) and 1.1% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). Across 24 tracked ETFs, approximately 23M shares (11.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 24 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Bunge Global SA over the past year sits near $81.23 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $129.13 trades 59.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BG Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Bunge Global SA convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Bunge Global SA converts -36% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 136% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 2,646 | $126.21 | $333,951.66 |
| 2026-05-12 | 1,052 | $126.14 | $132,699.28 |
| 2026-05-11 | 45,516 | $124.94 | $5.7M |
| 2026-05-05 | 2,522 | $127.62 | $321,857.64 |
| 2026-04-28 | 1,357 | $124.04 | $168,322.28 |
| 2026-04-27 | 5,704 | $124.90 | $712,429.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | 65,518 | $125.77 | $8.2M |
| 2026-04-20 | 23 | $119.26 | $2,742.98 |
| 2026-04-09 | 391 | $127.15 | $49,715.65 |
| 2026-03-26 | 45,216 | $125.40 | $5.7M |
| 2026-03-25 | 14 | $124.09 | $1,737.26 |
| 2026-03-23 | 20,435 | $118.15 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-20 | 12,213 | $122.04 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-18 | 4,828 | $125.96 | $608,134.88 |
| 2026-03-12 | 54 | $122.72 | $6,626.88 |
| 2026-03-09 | 205,782 | $116.67 | $24.0M |
| 2026-03-02 | 319 | $120.65 | $38,487.35 |
| 2026-02-23 | 3 | $121.95 | $365.85 |
| 2026-02-13 | 2 | $121.74 | $243.48 |
| 2026-02-12 | 1 | $122.03 | $122.03 |
| 2026-01-23 | 39,583 | $112.66 | $4.5M |
| 2026-01-21 | 210 | $110.06 | $23,112.6 |
| 2026-01-20 | 12,420 | $107.81 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-09 | 42,048 | $97.51 | $4.1M |
| 2025-11-26 | 1,937 | $96.51 | $186,939.87 |
| 2025-11-17 | 300 | $96.01 | $28,803 |
| 2025-11-13 | 43,445 | $96.30 | $4.2M |
| 2025-10-27 | 4 | $97.80 | $391.2 |
| 2025-10-21 | 4,786 | $97.25 | $465,438.5 |
| 2025-10-20 | 7,973 | $97.50 | $777,367.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ADM | 0.680 | 0.606 | Moderate |
| SLB | 0.382 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| NOV | 0.370 | 0.253 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.368 | 0.380 | Moderate |
| DOW | 0.368 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| SHEL | 0.355 | 0.330 | Moderate |
| RIG | 0.351 | 0.359 | Moderate |
| PLD | 0.339 | 0.374 | Moderate |
| LYB | 0.329 | 0.287 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.