Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCL trades at 34.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 32.6x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 6.7. DCF fair value of $133 implies 58% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this consumer defensive leader demonstrate exceptional capital efficiency, evidenced by a robust ROIC-WACC spread of +21.4%, indicating strong value creation relative to the cost of capital. The DuPont decomposition reveals that an elevated equity multiplier of 44.74x is the primary driver behind the reported 584.1% return on equity, rather than operational leverage or margin expansion, which sit at healthy but modest levels with a net margin of 10.5%. While the Altman Z-Score of 6.8 and Beneish M-Score of -3.01 suggest low distress risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns respectively, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signals moderate financial strength without recent significant deterioration or improvement in operational metrics.
Valuation analysis presents a complex picture where the current P/E multiple of 32.4x sits slightly above the sector average of 31.2x, yet diverges sharply from intrinsic value models. The DCF framework implies substantial upside potential with a fair value estimate that suggests over 120% appreciation relative to market prices, driven by an assumed long-term free cash flow growth rate of 4.9%. This wide disparity between implied valuation and current pricing indicates the market may be underweighting future cash generation or applying conservative discount rates inconsistent with the company's high ROIC profile.
Risk assessment highlights a notable divergence between quantitative factor performance and insider behavior. The stock exhibits strong profitability characteristics, scoring 0.348 on the RMW factor, while maintaining neutrality regarding value (HML: 0.081) and generating a positive annual Fama-French alpha of 6.45%. However, these favorable risk-adjusted returns contrast with significant insider activity over the last ninety days, characterized by net selling totaling approximately $25 million. This combination suggests that while factor models identify superior profitability and momentum attributes, management's capital allocation decisions or liquidity needs may introduce counterbalancing headwinds for long-term holders.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $161 | $111 | $79 |
| 3% | $211 | $133 | $89 |
| 4% | $311 | $166 | $103 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $88.27.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $133 (+58.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 46% below its 5-year average P/E of 59.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedColgate-Palmolive Company is currently trading at $89.92 within the Consumer Defensive sector, presenting a specific technical configuration regarding its mean-reversion dynamics relative to moving average envelopes. The positioning of this price point against long-term trend lines suggests an assessment of whether the asset has deviated significantly from its historical cost basis or if it remains aligned with established support structures. In relative-value terms, such proximity to key averages often implies that the market is balancing between continuation trends and potential pullbacks toward fair value zones defined by prior volatility bands. The absence of extreme overbought or oversold conditions in this snapshot indicates a state where price discovery may be proceeding at a measured pace rather than exhibiting explosive momentum shifts typical of breakout scenarios. This stability allows for an analysis of the envelope's width, which acts as a gauge for recent market sentiment and potential reversal zones if the current trajectory loses steam. Observers might note that defensive stocks often exhibit lower beta characteristics, meaning deviations from their moving averages tend to be more gradual compared to high-growth counterparts, thereby extending the timeframe required for significant mean reversion events to materialize. Ultimately, the technical narrative here centers on evaluating the sustainability of the $89.92 level as a pivot point where historical support or resistance could influence future price action. The relationship between the current valuation and its surrounding statistical boundaries offers clues about potential corrective movements should external pressures mount against this defensive posture. Traders analyzing these factors would focus on how closely the
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-20 | $0.5300 | +1.9% |
| 2026-01-21 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-17 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-18 | $0.5200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | $0.5200 | +4.0% |
| 2025-01-21 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-18 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-19 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-19 | $0.5000 | +4.2% |
| 2024-01-19 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-20 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-20 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or IYK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CL shares regardless of Colgate-Palmolive Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Colgate-Palmolive Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 34 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.5% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 3.0% of the IYK (IYK). Across 34 tracked ETFs, approximately 110M shares (13.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 34 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Colgate-Palmolive Company over the past year sits near $78.51 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $88.27 trades 12.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Colgate-Palmolive Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Colgate-Palmolive Company converts 92% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 20.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 6 | $87.44 | $524.64 |
| 2026-05-01 | 868 | $85.36 | $74,092.48 |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,817 | $84.49 | $153,518.33 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,114 | $85.67 | $95,436.38 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $84.16 | $757.44 |
| 2026-04-14 | 5,091 | $83.98 | $427,542.18 |
| 2026-03-25 | 81 | $84.53 | $6,846.93 |
| 2026-03-23 | 100 | $85.12 | $8,512 |
| 2026-03-06 | 183 | $92.67 | $16,958.61 |
| 2026-02-27 | 3 | $97.55 | $292.65 |
| 2026-02-23 | 31,546 | $95.09 | $3.0M |
| 2026-02-20 | 26 | $93.98 | $2,443.48 |
| 2026-02-17 | 538 | $96.67 | $52,008.46 |
| 2026-02-13 | 521 | $96.17 | $50,104.57 |
| 2026-02-09 | 140 | $94.41 | $13,217.4 |
| 2026-02-04 | 42,889 | $93.15 | $4.0M |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,253 | $90.29 | $113,133.37 |
| 2026-01-22 | 22 | $84.73 | $1,864.06 |
| 2026-01-21 | 29,992 | $85.44 | $2.6M |
| 2026-01-20 | 195 | $84.52 | $16,481.4 |
| 2025-12-10 | 4,505 | $76.98 | $346,794.9 |
| 2025-11-26 | 4 | $79.82 | $319.28 |
| 2025-11-25 | 2 | $79.18 | $158.36 |
| 2025-11-24 | 93 | $80.93 | $7,526.49 |
| 2025-11-12 | 205 | $79.47 | $16,291.35 |
| 2025-11-06 | 2 | $76.91 | $153.82 |
| 2025-11-03 | 120 | $77.05 | $9,246 |
| 2025-10-28 | 4,362 | $77.83 | $339,494.46 |
| 2025-10-24 | 326 | $78.44 | $25,571.44 |
| 2025-10-23 | 535 | $79.86 | $42,725.1 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| PG | 0.698 | 0.721 | Moderate |
| KO | 0.632 | 0.648 | Moderate |
| CHD | 0.629 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.570 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| MDLZ | 0.549 | 0.590 | Moderate |
| GIS | 0.546 | 0.546 | Moderate |
| KMB | 0.545 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.488 | 0.529 | Moderate |
| PEP | 0.463 | 0.515 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.