Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicDUK trades at 18.9x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.7.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Duke Energy Corporation present a complex dichotomy between operational stability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that return on equity is driven primarily by leverage rather than organic margin expansion or asset turnover, with an equity multiplier of 3.69x supporting a net margin of 15.4%, this structure comes at the cost of value creation. The negative ROIC-WACC spread of -1.9% indicates that capital allocation currently destroys shareholder value relative to the weighted average cost of capital, despite a robust Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signaling strong financial health and an Altman Z-Score of 0.7 suggesting low bankruptcy risk. The Beneish M-Score of -2.76 further supports the integrity of these earnings figures, while revenue growth remains steady at 6.2%.
Valuation metrics position the stock slightly below its sector average peer group trade multiple of 22.5x, trading instead at a current P/E of 21.0x, which may reflect market skepticism regarding future capital deployment efficiency rather than immediate distress. A discounted cash flow analysis implies that fair value expectations are contingent on whether management can narrow the negative return gap; however, the market appears to be pricing in moderate growth without demanding a significant premium for the current capital destruction rate. The Fama-French alpha of 7.60% annually suggests the stock has historically outperformed when adjusted for size and book-to-market factors, yet this is offset by a negative profitability factor (RMW) of -0.097, indicating that recent returns have not been bolstered by superior profit margins relative to industry peers.
Risk assessment highlights significant insider activity as a potential divergence signal, with $5,567,523 in net selling over the past 90 days. This outflow contrasts with the company's solid profitability factor and low distress scores, suggesting insiders may be taking profits or hedging against future capital expenditure pressures that could further widen the ROIC-WACC deficit. The value tilt indicated by an HML score of 0.436 aligns with the stock's characteristics as a high-leverage utility, but investors must weigh this defensive positioning against the ongoing drag on absolute returns caused by inefficient capital generation relative to its cost of funds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 10% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDuke Energy Corporation's current positioning within the Utilities sector presents a complex risk profile where price stability at $124.56 must be weighed against underlying volatility pressures. The absence of significant drawdown data suggests a potential floor in recent pricing action, yet without corroborating volume trends or moving average support levels, this equilibrium could represent a fragile consolidation rather than a robust structural base. In the utility landscape, such price points often reflect defensive characteristics, but the lack of explicit momentum indicators leaves open whether current stability is driven by genuine fundamental resilience or merely temporary market inertia. The interaction between sector-wide headwinds and individual stock behavior creates an environment where risk dynamics are difficult to isolate from broader macroeconomic noise. If volatility remains elevated despite the static price level, it may indicate that market participants are hesitant to commit capital without clearer directional signals, effectively capping upside potential even if fundamentals appear sound. Conversely, a sudden shift in sentiment could rapidly erode this apparent stability, turning what looks like a steady holding into a volatile asset class overnight. The technical picture remains ambiguous until further data clarifies whether the current price action is part of a sustained trend or a precarious pause before a decisive move.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $1.0650 | +1.9% |
| 2025-05-16 | $1.0450 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $1.0450 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.0450 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $1.0450 | +2.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.0250 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-17 | $1.0250 | +2.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DUK shares regardless of Duke Energy Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $13.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to DUK through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Duke Energy Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DUK. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DUK Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 DUK shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 7.0% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 6.3% of the VPU (VPU). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 105M shares (13.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DUK Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DUK Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Duke Energy Corporation over the past year sits near $122.03 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $121.09 sits 0.8% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DUK Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Duke Energy Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Duke Energy Corporation converts -10% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 110% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 10 | $125.54 | $1,255.4 |
| 2026-04-30 | 3,280 | $126.51 | $414,952.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | 85 | $127.80 | $10,863 |
| 2026-04-28 | 11,932 | $127.09 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | 7,124 | $127.27 | $906,671.48 |
| 2026-04-20 | 199,374 | $128.03 | $25.5M |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $129.78 | $778.68 |
| 2026-03-25 | 78 | $127.38 | $9,935.64 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2 | $126.81 | $253.62 |
| 2026-03-12 | 47,082 | $130.03 | $6.1M |
| 2026-03-06 | 3 | $131.61 | $394.83 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1,090 | $126.71 | $138,113.9 |
| 2026-02-17 | 177 | $128.20 | $22,691.4 |
| 2026-02-13 | 39,080 | $126.11 | $4.9M |
| 2026-02-12 | 13,320 | $125.20 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-10 | 996 | $121.72 | $121,233.12 |
| 2026-02-04 | 320 | $121.67 | $38,934.4 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,435 | $117.32 | $168,354.2 |
| 2026-01-05 | 81 | $117.44 | $9,512.64 |
| 2025-12-30 | 3,508 | $117.52 | $412,260.16 |
| 2025-12-19 | 9,223 | $117.55 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-18 | 64 | $117.43 | $7,515.52 |
| 2025-12-17 | 150 | $115.59 | $17,338.5 |
| 2025-12-05 | 15,035 | $117.97 | $1.8M |
| 2025-12-04 | 131 | $118.62 | $15,539.22 |
| 2025-12-03 | 1,048 | $119.69 | $125,435.12 |
| 2025-12-02 | 122 | $120.75 | $14,731.5 |
| 2025-12-01 | 124 | $123.94 | $15,368.56 |
| 2025-11-28 | 991 | $123.43 | $122,319.13 |
| 2025-11-20 | 150 | $122.23 | $18,334.5 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SO | 0.846 | 0.831 | High co-movement |
| ED | 0.821 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| WEC | 0.808 | 0.764 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.797 | 0.792 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.785 | 0.776 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.764 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| EXC | 0.764 | 0.691 | High co-movement |
| AEE | 0.761 | 0.731 | High co-movement |
| EVRG | 0.748 | 0.755 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DUK to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.