HCC (HCC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 6.1. Beneish M-Score of -2.00 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the company reveal a significant capital allocation challenge, as the return on invested capital stands at 2.0%, falling substantially short of the 9.0% weighted average cost of capital to generate a negative spread of -7.0%. This indicates that current operations are actively destroying value rather than creating it for shareholders. While the Altman Z-Score of 6.1 suggests robust solvency and low bankruptcy risk, supported by a Beneish M-Score of -2.00 pointing away from earnings manipulation, profitability metrics tell a different story; revenue contracted sharply by 14.1% year-over-year despite maintaining positive gross and net margins of 8.5% and 4.3%, respectively. The Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 further underscores deteriorating financial health relative to historical standards, highlighting that the primary driver of returns is currently being eroded by declining turnover rather than margin compression or excessive leverage.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between current market pricing and historical norms, with the stock trading at an elevated P/E multiple of 80.0x compared to its five-year average of 49.5x, representing a premium valuation of approximately 61% above recent history rather than the cited 65%. This aggressive multiple expansion appears inconsistent with the underlying operational trajectory characterized by double-digit revenue contraction and negative ROIC-WACC spread. Although no explicit DCF fair value or implied growth assumptions are provided in the dataset to confirm specific pricing errors, the market's willingness to sustain such a high valuation despite deteriorating fundamentals suggests that investors may be anticipating a future turnaround not yet reflected in current earnings flows.
The risk-reward profile is heavily skewed toward downside protection given the negative spread and revenue decline, while upside potential remains constrained unless operational efficiency improves significantly or leverage increases to boost ROE through financial engineering rather than organic growth.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of HCC at $85.45 presents a specific snapshot for institutional analysis, though the provided data lacks sufficient technical indicators such as Simple Moving Average crossovers or volume trends to definitively characterize larger player positioning. Without visible moving average interactions, it remains unclear whether major entities are accumulating through long-term trend establishment or distributing via short-term pullbacks. The absence of price action context relative to key support and resistance levels further limits the ability to infer strategic intent from this single data point. Institutional behavior often manifests through sustained volume spikes coinciding with directional moves, yet no such metrics are available here to confirm active participation by large capital groups. A solitary price figure cannot reveal if significant holders are increasing their stakes or reducing exposure over recent sessions. Consequently, any assertion regarding the specific stance of sophisticated market participants would be speculative given these constraints. Ultimately, while $85.45 serves as a reference level for current valuation, it does not inherently signal whether institutional sentiment is bullish or bearish without corroborating data on trend alignment and trading activity. Market observers must await additional confirmation from broader technical patterns before drawing conclusions about the strategies employed by larger market actors in this security.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-23 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-07 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-05 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-24 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-05 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-06 | $0.0800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-03 | $0.0800 | -84.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.5000 | +525.0% |
| 2024-02-16 | $0.0800 | +14.3% |
| 2023-11-02 | $0.0700 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HCC shares regardless of HCC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $405M of passive capital is structurally linked to HCC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HCC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HCC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HCC (HCC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HCC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HCC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 3 HCC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
HCC (HCC) exerts significant gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.3% of the XME (XME) and 0.3% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 19M shares (35.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest HCC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HCC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for HCC over the past year sits near $87.73 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $110.28 trades 25.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HCC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HCC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HCC converts -40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 140% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-7.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 12,902 | $84.02 | $1.1M |
| 2026-05-04 | 3 | $86.20 | $258.6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 50 | $88.62 | $4,431 |
| 2026-03-31 | 16 | $94.22 | $1,507.52 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $88.54 | $531.24 |
| 2026-03-20 | 155 | $90.62 | $14,046.1 |
| 2026-03-17 | 4,093 | $84.72 | $346,758.96 |
| 2026-03-16 | 260 | $85.12 | $22,131.2 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,305 | $85.34 | $111,368.7 |
| 2026-03-09 | 6,013 | $77.36 | $465,165.68 |
| 2026-02-26 | 74 | $87.75 | $6,493.5 |
| 2026-02-25 | 127,980 | $90.56 | $11.6M |
| 2026-02-24 | 87 | $87.05 | $7,573.35 |
| 2026-02-20 | 29,250 | $85.51 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-06 | 70 | $86.52 | $6,056.4 |
| 2026-02-05 | 12 | $88.40 | $1,060.8 |
| 2026-01-20 | 734 | $100.07 | $73,451.38 |
| 2026-01-13 | 142,898 | $100.20 | $14.3M |
| 2026-01-12 | 147,524 | $96.97 | $14.3M |
| 2026-01-08 | 881 | $91.83 | $80,902.23 |
| 2025-12-22 | 263 | $87.43 | $22,994.09 |
| 2025-12-19 | 862 | $85.50 | $73,701 |
| 2025-11-24 | 100 | $75.07 | $7,507 |
| 2025-11-14 | 146 | $80.38 | $11,735.48 |
| 2025-11-12 | 102 | $82.46 | $8,410.92 |
| 2025-11-10 | 7,004 | $81.19 | $568,654.76 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CNR | 0.739 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| BTU | 0.656 | 0.621 | Moderate |
| RIO | 0.382 | 0.245 | Moderate |
| AA | 0.353 | 0.329 | Moderate |
| ALB | 0.346 | 0.282 | Moderate |
| CENX | 0.345 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| COHR | 0.338 | 0.431 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.333 | 0.343 | Moderate |
| BHP | 0.329 | 0.220 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HCC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.