Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $9 implies 91% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -1.67 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Core Natural Resources, Inc. reveal a distressed operational profile characterized by negative capital efficiency and profitability metrics that contradict surface-level growth narratives. Despite reported revenue expansion of 92.4% year-over-year, the company generates an ROIC of -2.9% and an ROE of -4.2%, driven primarily by a -3.7% net margin rather than operational leverage or asset turnover efficiency. This deterioration in profitability is underscored by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, indicating significant fundamental weakness relative to the nine-score framework, while the negative gross margin suggests persistent pricing power issues or high input costs within the energy sector. Although the Beneish M-Score of -1.67 implies low earnings manipulation risk, the structural inability to generate positive returns on invested capital and assets points to a business model currently failing to create value through its core operations.
Valuation analysis presents a stark divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic fair value estimates derived from discounted cash flow modeling. The stock trades at a premium relative to sector norms given its negative earnings, yet the DCF model assigns a fair value of $7, implying a substantial -93.7% downside potential if future free cash flow growth materializes as projected. This massive discount reflects the market's skepticism regarding the sustainability of the reported 42.3% implied ten-year FCF growth rate in light of current negative margins and capital destruction. The valuation gap suggests that current prices may be pricing in an unrealistic recovery scenario or a complete turnaround, whereas the DCF framework indicates significant overvaluation based on conservative assumptions about future cash generation capabilities.
Insider activity further complicates the risk-reward assessment, with $6.7 million of net insider selling observed over the preceding 90 days. This substantial outflow by management and major shareholders typically signals a lack of confidence in near-term stock performance or potential liquidity constraints within the company's capital structure. When combined with the negative ROIC and low Piotroski score, this insider behavior reinforces the view that current stakeholders are exiting positions ahead of anticipated challenges rather than accumulating based on long-term value creation prospects. The convergence of deteriorating fundamentals, a severe valuation gap suggesting overpricing, and aggressive insider selling creates a high-risk environment where downside volatility may outweigh any potential for short-term price appreciation driven by revenue anomalies.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 92% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $10 | $8 | $6 |
| 3% | $12 | $9 | $7 |
| 4% | $16 | $10 | $7 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $94.57.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $9 (-90.5%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCore Natural Resources, Inc. is currently trading at $83.87, a level that requires contextualization against its specific moving average envelope to assess relative positioning. Without the precise values of the short-term and long-term moving averages defining this band, it remains unclear whether the current price sits near the mean, significantly above it suggesting an extended rally, or deeply below it indicating potential oversold conditions. The proximity of the stock's price to these dynamic support and resistance lines is a critical factor in gauging the likelihood of a statistical return toward the average. If the $83.87 price point represents a deviation from the established mean within the envelope, technical theory suggests that market forces may eventually exert pressure to pull the value back inside the band, assuming no fundamental structural shifts alter the trend. In an energy sector environment characterized by volatility, such deviations often trigger mechanical trading strategies focused on capturing reversals rather than continuing trends. The current setup implies a state of uncertainty regarding immediate directionality; if the price is hugging one side of the envelope tightly, it may signal exhaustion in that specific move and set the stage for a counter-trend reaction. Conversely, if the stock has recently pierced through an outer boundary of its moving average range, it could indicate momentum persisting beyond historical norms. Observers should note that mean reversion is not instantaneous but rather a probabilistic outcome dependent on volume confirmation and broader market sentiment. The decision to interpret this specific price level as an entry for
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-28 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.1000 | -60.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.2500 | -77.3% |
| 2023-05-12 | $1.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-02-16 | $1.1000 | +4.8% |
| 2022-11-10 | $1.0500 | +5.0% |
| 2022-08-15 | $1.0000 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or VIGI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CNR shares regardless of Core Natural Resources, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to CNR through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Core Natural Resources, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NUCOR CORP (NUE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CNR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CNR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 2 CNR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. (CNR) exerts significant gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.7% of the XME (XME) and 1.1% of the VIGI (VIGI). Across 16 tracked ETFs, approximately 22M shares (42.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CNR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 16 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CNR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Core Natural Resources, Inc. over the past year sits near $88.08 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $94.57 trades 7.4% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CNR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Core Natural Resources, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Core Natural Resources, Inc. converts 5% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 95% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-10.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 16,531 | $85.89 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-07 | 22,000 | $87.77 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-04 | 237 | $87.02 | $20,623.74 |
| 2026-04-21 | 81 | $85.34 | $6,912.54 |
| 2026-04-20 | 76 | $85.97 | $6,533.72 |
| 2026-04-14 | 115 | $89.70 | $10,315.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | 8,253 | $104.05 | $858,724.65 |
| 2026-04-06 | 8,142 | $104.25 | $848,803.5 |
| 2026-04-02 | 1 | $101.39 | $101.39 |
| 2026-04-01 | 6,104 | $104.73 | $639,271.92 |
| 2026-03-31 | 1 | $110.18 | $110.18 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1 | $113.23 | $113.23 |
| 2026-03-16 | 33 | $98.89 | $3,263.37 |
| 2026-03-12 | 4,547 | $95.80 | $435,602.6 |
| 2026-03-11 | 2,329 | $91.35 | $212,754.15 |
| 2026-03-10 | 2,099 | $90.02 | $188,951.98 |
| 2026-02-13 | 340 | $90.05 | $30,617 |
| 2026-02-12 | 355 | $92.67 | $32,897.85 |
| 2026-02-05 | 5,214 | $90.42 | $471,449.88 |
| 2026-01-30 | 3,194 | $95.86 | $306,176.84 |
| 2026-01-29 | 51 | $93.91 | $4,789.41 |
| 2026-01-15 | 14,812 | $97.71 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-06 | 1 | $88.03 | $88.03 |
| 2025-12-29 | 10,869 | $88.58 | $962,776.02 |
| 2025-12-26 | 308 | $89.11 | $27,445.88 |
| 2025-12-23 | 27,472 | $88.51 | $2.4M |
| 2025-12-22 | 12,742 | $88.37 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-08 | 79 | $83.27 | $6,578.33 |
| 2025-12-05 | 908 | $84.04 | $76,308.32 |
| 2025-12-04 | 2 | $82.68 | $165.36 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BTU | 0.785 | 0.821 | High co-movement |
| HCC | 0.739 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| MUR | 0.328 | 0.389 | Moderate |
| TPL | 0.326 | 0.426 | Moderate |
| SU | 0.321 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| PSX | 0.305 | 0.359 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.299 | 0.391 | Low correlation |
| CF | 0.298 | 0.342 | Low correlation |
| MPC | 0.290 | 0.365 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CNR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.