Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 19.6x earnings — a 47% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — CENX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $1 implies 98% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Century Aluminum Company reveal a severe capital allocation inefficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -13.8%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital despite generating 13.9% revenue growth year-over-year. This disconnect suggests that operational leverage or margin compression—evidenced by a net margin of just 1.7% against a gross margin of 10.1%—is preventing the translation of top-line expansion into shareholder value creation. While qualitative resilience indicators remain intact, with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a low Beneish M-Score of -2.57 signaling minimal earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 3.4 places the entity in a zone requiring cautious monitoring regarding long-term solvency under stress scenarios.
Valuation metrics present an extreme divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 148.2x stands nearly double both the five-year historical average of 69.5x and significantly above the sector mean of 37.1x, implying that the market is aggressively pricing in sustained hyper-growth rather than acknowledging the company's cyclical commodity nature. This optimism is starkly contradicted by discounted cash flow analysis, which calculates a fair value of $1 per share, resulting in an implied downside of -98.0% from current levels. Such a massive gap suggests that prevailing equity multiples are not supported by the underlying free cash flow generation capabilities or the specific growth trajectory required to justify such premium valuations within a capital-intensive basic materials sector.
The data presents a high-risk profile where speculative momentum appears detached from fundamental earnings power, creating a scenario typical of volatile cyclical assets during expansion phases. The implied ten-year FCF growth rate of 41.1% is structurally inconsistent with the company's current thin net margins and negative capital returns, highlighting a potential mean reversion risk if market sentiment corrects to align with operational realities. Investors must weigh whether recent price appreciation reflects temporary supply constraints or a fundamental mispricing that could lead to significant volatility as earnings expectations inevitably recalibrate against these stark valuation disparities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 14% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 14.1% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $2 | $1 | $1 |
| 3% | $2 | $1 | $1 |
| 4% | $2 | $2 | $1 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $68.77.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=16.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $1 (-98.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 129% above its 5-year average P/E of 69.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCentury Aluminum Company currently trades at $56.82 within the Basic Materials sector, a positioning that reflects its sensitivity to broader commodity cycles and industrial demand fluctuations. The presence of significant drawdown potential alongside elevated volatility suggests that any recent upward movement in price may be structurally fragile rather than indicative of a sustained trend reversal. In this environment, momentum appears highly dependent on external fundamental backdrops, such as aluminum pricing dynamics or supply chain disruptions, which can rapidly alter the risk profile without an internal shift in company fundamentals. The technical landscape implies that while short-term catalysts might drive price action, the underlying volatility creates a precarious balance where gains are easily eroded by market sentiment shifts typical of cyclical materials plays. Traders observing this setup must recognize that current levels do not necessarily signal stability; instead, they highlight a state where risk dynamics are amplified by sector-wide uncertainties. Consequently, the trajectory remains contingent on whether fundamental support can withstand inherent volatility pressures or if technical corrections will reassert dominance over any temporary price strength observed in recent sessions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2002-09-18 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2002-06-12 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2002-03-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2001-12-12 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2001-06-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2001-03-14 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2000-12-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2000-09-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2000-06-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2000-03-16 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 1999-12-21 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 1999-09-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XME or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CENX shares regardless of Century Aluminum Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $249M of passive capital is structurally linked to CENX through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CENX's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Century Aluminum Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Century Aluminum Company (CENX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CENX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CENX Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 21 CENX shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the XME (XME) and 0.2% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (4.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CENX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CENX Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Century Aluminum Company over the past year sits near $28.70 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $68.77 trades 139.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CENX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Century Aluminum Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Century Aluminum Company converts 60% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-13.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 33,175 | $63.27 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-12 | 164 | $60.18 | $9,869.52 |
| 2026-04-28 | 6,755 | $61.63 | $416,310.65 |
| 2026-04-22 | 6,078 | $61.40 | $373,189.2 |
| 2026-04-17 | 446 | $65.61 | $29,262.06 |
| 2026-04-14 | 3,123 | $67.94 | $212,176.62 |
| 2026-03-23 | 200 | $48.97 | $9,794 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2,640,213 | $53.43 | $141.1M |
| 2026-02-20 | 7,125 | $52.50 | $374,062.5 |
| 2026-02-04 | 3,110 | $50.51 | $157,086.1 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,702 | $47.57 | $80,964.14 |
| 2026-01-12 | 282,100 | $45.69 | $12.9M |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,568 | $36.21 | $56,777.28 |
| 2025-12-19 | 500 | $33.81 | $16,905 |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,940 | $31.56 | $61,226.4 |
| 2025-12-12 | 66 | $32.32 | $2,133.12 |
| 2025-12-05 | 6,810 | $30.86 | $210,156.6 |
| 2025-11-28 | 18,759 | $28.75 | $539,321.25 |
| 2025-11-26 | 3,444 | $28.48 | $98,085.12 |
| 2025-11-12 | 26,136 | $27.88 | $728,671.68 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| AA | 0.597 | 0.650 | Moderate |
| CLF | 0.492 | 0.368 | Moderate |
| FCX | 0.489 | 0.478 | Moderate |
| STLD | 0.430 | 0.289 | Moderate |
| CDE | 0.389 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| RIO | 0.384 | 0.364 | Moderate |
| CMC | 0.381 | 0.304 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.377 | 0.360 | Moderate |
| NUE | 0.370 | 0.211 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CENX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.