Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMLM trades at 36.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.8 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $400 implies 37% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedMartin Marietta Materials exhibits a distinct divergence between its operational profitability and capital efficiency, driven primarily by high leverage rather than asset productivity. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that an 18.5% net margin and robust asset turnover of 0.33x support an ROE of 11.3%, this return is underpinned by a significant equity multiplier of 1.86x, indicating substantial debt usage to finance operations. This capital structure creates a negative spread between the Return on Invested Capital (6.5%) and the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (10.9%), resulting in a -4.4% gap that suggests value destruction from invested capital despite strong earnings quality evidenced by high Piotroski and Altman scores.
Valuation metrics present a complex picture where current multiples appear discounted relative to historical norms but remain elevated compared to sector peers, while absolute fair value models suggest downside potential. The stock trades at 36.5x forward earnings versus a sector average of 41.0x, yet Discounted Cash Flow analysis implies a fair value significantly below current levels with -28.9% upside, assuming an aggressive long-term free cash flow growth rate of 19.0%. This discrepancy indicates the market may be pricing in sustained high-growth trajectories that are difficult to reconcile with the negative ROIC-WACC spread and the implied discount required by absolute valuation models.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals a compelling anomaly where Fama-French alpha stands at an annualized 22.65%, suggesting significant outperformance relative to standard risk factors, even as factor tilts remain neutral on value exposure but robust on profitability dimensions. With insider activity showing zero net flow over the last ninety days and no distress signals from financial stability metrics, the investment case hinges entirely on whether future cash flows can justify a premium valuation in an environment where capital returns are theoretically negative. The synthesis of high historical alpha against current DCF headwinds creates a scenario where realized returns depend critically on growth realization versus fundamental deterioration risks inherent in the leverage structure.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $495 | $357 | $269 |
| 3% | $575 | $400 | $295 |
| 4% | $686 | $456 | $328 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $576.93.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $400 (-37.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 31% above its 5-year average P/E of 29.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. is currently trading at $631.53, a position that warrants examination against its historical moving average envelope to gauge relative value. When the current price sits near the upper boundary of this range, it often signals an extended valuation where statistical probability suggests a potential pullback toward the mean. Conversely, if the stock resides in the lower band or has recently breached support levels defined by the standard deviation lines, it may indicate oversold conditions ripe for a reversion to average pricing dynamics. This spatial relationship between the spot price and the volatility bands serves as a critical metric for identifying whether the asset is statistically overextended or undervalued relative to its recent trajectory. The implication of this positioning lies in the inherent tension between momentum and mean-reversion forces within the Basic Materials sector. A price hovering at the extremes of the envelope suggests that market participants may be pricing in aggressive expectations, increasing the likelihood of a corrective move as profit-taking pressures mount or sentiment shifts. Alternatively, if the stock is consolidating near the center of the channel, it implies a balanced state where neither strong upward nor downward pressure dominates, potentially leading to sideways movement until new catalysts emerge. Traders analyzing this setup must weigh whether the current deviation from the mean represents a temporary anomaly driven by sector-specific news or a structural shift in valuation models that could sustain the price away from historical norms for an extended period.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-02 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-01 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | $0.8300 | +5.1% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-03 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-02 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-03 | $0.7900 | +6.8% |
| 2024-06-03 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-01 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.7400 | +12.1% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MLM shares regardless of Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to MLM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MLM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 28 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MLM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 MLM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.0% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 2.4% of the VAW (VAW). Across 28 tracked ETFs, approximately 9M shares (15.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MLM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 28 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MLM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. over the past year sits near $613.23 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $576.93 sits 5.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MLM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. converts 47% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 53% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1 | $576.79 | $576.79 |
| 2026-05-05 | 187 | $603.29 | $112,815.23 |
| 2026-05-04 | 261 | $614.49 | $160,381.89 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,492 | $610.64 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-20 | 10,807 | $622.02 | $6.7M |
| 2026-04-15 | 119 | $630.80 | $75,065.2 |
| 2026-04-10 | 239 | $625.50 | $149,494.5 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,502 | $624.36 | $937,788.72 |
| 2026-04-08 | 791 | $594.43 | $470,194.13 |
| 2026-03-25 | 6 | $576.18 | $3,457.08 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,409 | $577.59 | $813,824.31 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $560.69 | $3,364.14 |
| 2026-03-06 | 30 | $632.93 | $18,987.9 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1 | $676.57 | $676.57 |
| 2026-02-26 | 21 | $673.29 | $14,139.09 |
| 2026-02-20 | 35 | $675.40 | $23,639 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2,993 | $695.73 | $2.1M |
| 2026-01-21 | 8,615 | $630.90 | $5.4M |
| 2025-12-19 | 114 | $627.38 | $71,521.32 |
| 2025-12-17 | 65,375 | $629.49 | $41.2M |
| 2025-12-03 | 3,300 | $607.99 | $2.0M |
| 2025-11-20 | 24 | $596.82 | $14,323.68 |
| 2025-11-17 | 3 | $596.44 | $1,789.32 |
| 2025-11-13 | 190 | $614.81 | $116,813.9 |
| 2025-10-30 | 91 | $616.92 | $56,139.72 |
| 2025-10-24 | 4 | $619.35 | $2,477.4 |
| 2025-10-22 | 14 | $632.03 | $8,848.42 |
| 2025-10-10 | 4 | $633.81 | $2,535.24 |
| 2025-10-03 | 76 | $627.87 | $47,718.12 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VMC | 0.874 | 0.861 | High co-movement |
| CRH | 0.665 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| SHW | 0.597 | 0.586 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.596 | 0.645 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.591 | 0.631 | Moderate |
| TMHC | 0.566 | 0.637 | Moderate |
| SGI | 0.564 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| HD | 0.560 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| MTH | 0.558 | 0.597 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MLM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.