CRH plc (CRH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.2x earnings — a 45% discount to the sector average of 36.7x — CRH is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 3.1. DCF fair value of $60 implies 49% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of CRH present a capital allocation challenge where the return on invested capital of 8.9% falls short of the weighted average cost of capital at 10.7%, resulting in a negative spread that erodes long-term shareholder value despite a respectable DuPont ROE of 14.6%. This equity yield is driven primarily by leverage, with an equity multiplier of 2.29x amplifying modest net margins and asset turnover rather than operational efficiency gains. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength and an Altman Z-Score of 3.0 indicates a safe distance from bankruptcy, the core business model struggles to generate returns above its hurdle rate.
Valuation metrics reflect these underlying capital constraints, with the current P/E of 19.0x appearing stretched relative to a DCF fair value of $63 that implies significant downside risk given the -39.7% discount. The market appears to be pricing in aggressive future performance, assuming an implied free cash flow growth rate of 13.9% over ten years—a trajectory difficult to sustain when current ROIC fails to cover the cost of capital. Although the stock exhibits a strong Fama-French alpha of 16.61%, suggesting historical outperformance unexplained by traditional risk factors, this momentum contrasts sharply with the negative intrinsic value implied by discounted cash flow analysis and neutral positioning on both value and profitability factor scores.
Recent insider activity shows $601,285 in net buying over ninety days, which may signal management confidence or opportunistic accumulation despite the valuation gap. However, the divergence between high alpha performance and deteriorating capital efficiency creates a complex risk profile where short-term momentum factors coexist with long-term value deterioration. Investors must weigh whether the current price adequately compensates for the persistent ROIC-WACC deficit before assuming that historical factor premiums will continue to offset fundamental headwinds in future periods.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $75 | $53 | $40 |
| 3% | $87 | $60 | $44 |
| 4% | $105 | $69 | $49 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $106.52.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-48.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 52% above its 5-year average P/E of 14.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCRH plc is currently trading at $103.39 within the Basic Materials sector, presenting a specific technical landscape regarding momentum and trend direction. While precise moving average positions are not provided in the immediate data snapshot, the current price level serves as the baseline for assessing relative strength against historical benchmarks. In the absence of explicit average values, any determination about whether the asset is trading above or below its key support lines remains speculative without further calculation. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) status is undefined here; consequently, no definitive conclusion can be drawn regarding short-term momentum being in an overbought or oversold condition based solely on this limited information set. The available data points to a single price figure but lacks the comparative metrics necessary to confirm a prevailing bullish or bearish trajectory with certainty. Without knowing if recent closes have consistently exceeded long-term averages, it is impossible to assert that the trend is firmly established in one direction. Likewise, without an RSI reading near extreme thresholds, the immediate velocity of price movement cannot be characterized as excessively aggressive or depleted. Analysts observing this setup must await additional data points confirming the relationship between current pricing and moving average lines before forming a view on sustained momentum. The existing snapshot indicates a static point in time rather than a dynamic confirmation of trend strength or weakness for CRH plc at this specific moment.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-06 | $0.3900 | +5.4% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.3700 | +5.7% |
| 2024-11-22 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-23 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.3500 | -67.6% |
| 2023-12-14 | $1.0800 | +332.0% |
| 2023-10-19 | $0.2500 | -75.7% |
| 2023-03-16 | $1.0300 | +329.2% |
| 2022-09-08 | $0.2400 | -75.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VAW or XLB, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CRH shares regardless of CRH plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $8.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to CRH through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CRH plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CRH plc (CRH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CRH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 19 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CRH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 CRH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CRH plc (CRH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.1% of the VAW (VAW) and 4.3% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). Across 19 tracked ETFs, approximately 82M shares (12.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CRH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 19 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CRH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CRH plc over the past year sits near $125.52 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $106.52 sits 15.1% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CRH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CRH plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CRH plc converts 37% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 63% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,189 | $108.75 | $129,303.75 |
| 2026-05-13 | 275 | $111.39 | $30,632.25 |
| 2026-05-12 | 89,786 | $112.57 | $10.1M |
| 2026-05-04 | 7,509 | $115.45 | $866,914.05 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7,631 | $118.42 | $903,663.02 |
| 2026-04-27 | 538 | $118.00 | $63,484 |
| 2026-04-24 | 10,395 | $117.16 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-20 | 904 | $117.05 | $105,813.2 |
| 2026-04-16 | 20,799 | $116.21 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 228 | $117.41 | $26,769.48 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,950 | $117.27 | $228,676.5 |
| 2026-04-08 | 5,527 | $105.87 | $585,143.49 |
| 2026-03-30 | 265,611 | $101.74 | $27.0M |
| 2026-03-27 | 195,699 | $103.20 | $20.2M |
| 2026-03-26 | 102,008 | $106.05 | $10.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 67 | $106.52 | $7,136.84 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,252 | $104.42 | $130,733.84 |
| 2026-03-23 | 57,602 | $100.47 | $5.8M |
| 2026-03-10 | 5,617 | $106.46 | $597,985.82 |
| 2026-03-09 | 3,351 | $106.41 | $356,579.91 |
| 2026-03-05 | 94,585 | $113.26 | $10.7M |
| 2026-03-04 | 114,755 | $113.55 | $13.0M |
| 2026-02-26 | 86,741 | $120.16 | $10.4M |
| 2026-02-20 | 137,520 | $125.49 | $17.3M |
| 2026-02-17 | 5,896 | $125.97 | $742,719.12 |
| 2026-02-05 | 31 | $122.96 | $3,811.76 |
| 2026-01-30 | 33,515 | $123.68 | $4.1M |
| 2026-01-23 | 506,051 | $124.49 | $63.0M |
| 2026-01-21 | 22,289 | $120.86 | $2.7M |
| 2026-01-20 | 5,754 | $122.97 | $707,569.38 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MLM | 0.665 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| VMC | 0.651 | 0.671 | Moderate |
| WMS | 0.645 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| IBP | 0.587 | 0.518 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.582 | 0.619 | Moderate |
| PH | 0.578 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.560 | 0.547 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.549 | 0.583 | Moderate |
| CMC | 0.544 | 0.541 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CRH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.