NOV (NOV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.0. DCF fair value of $27 implies 39% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a stark dichotomy between low capital efficiency and modest earnings quality. Return on Invested Capital sits at 4.1%, indicating the firm struggles to generate returns significantly above its cost of capital, while DuPont decomposition reveals that equity generation is driven primarily by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier 1.79x) rather than operational prowess; this is evidenced by thin net margins of 1.7% and an asset turnover ratio of only 0.77x. Although the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength, the Beneish M-Score of -2.95 flags potential earnings manipulation risks that warrant scrutiny given the weak margin profile and negative revenue growth of -1.4% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics currently reflect a significant premium to intrinsic value despite deteriorating operational trends. The stock trades at 50.0x forward earnings, a multiple that implies robust future expansion, yet this stands in direct contrast to the Discounted Cash Flow fair value estimate of $27, which suggests downside potential if current assumptions hold. This valuation gap is particularly notable given an implied free cash flow growth rate of -6.8% over the next decade and declining top-line revenue; the market appears pricing in a turnaround narrative that the underlying DuPont drivers—specifically low margins and sluggish asset turnover—are not currently supporting.
Insider activity remains neutral with zero net flow over the last 90 days, offering no clear signal of management conviction amidst these conflicting data points. The risk-reward profile is skewed by the combination of high valuation multiples, negative long-term cash flow growth projections, and a low M-Score that introduces earnings quality uncertainty; however, if operational leverage improves or margins expand, the current pricing could unlock substantial upside relative to the DCF baseline. Investors must weigh whether the 45.7% implied DCF upside compensates for the fundamental drag on capital efficiency and the potential for further margin compression in a sector facing revenue headwinds.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of -1% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $33 | $24 | $19 |
| 3% | $39 | $27 | $21 |
| 4% | $49 | $31 | $23 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $20.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $27 (+38.5%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | $0.0900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-13 | $0.0900 | +20.0% |
| 2025-12-05 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-12 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.0750 | -64.3% |
| 2025-06-02 | $0.2100 | +180.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.0750 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.0750 | +50.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-07 | $0.0500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XES or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell NOV shares regardless of NOV's individual fundamentals. We estimate $527M of passive capital is structurally linked to NOV through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on NOV's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in NOV to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If NOV (NOV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with NOV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 14 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
NOV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 13 NOV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
NOV (NOV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.9% of the XES (XES) and 0.5% of the MDYV (MDYV). Across 14 tracked ETFs, approximately 28M shares (7.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest NOV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 14 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
NOV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for NOV over the past year sits near $12.66 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $20.45 trades 61.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
NOV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does NOV convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
NOV converts 107% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 268 | $20.49 | $5,491.32 |
| 2026-05-13 | 6,338 | $20.54 | $130,182.52 |
| 2026-05-12 | 94 | $19.77 | $1,858.38 |
| 2026-04-22 | 484 | $19.59 | $9,481.56 |
| 2026-04-14 | 556 | $19.63 | $10,914.28 |
| 2026-04-13 | 143,875 | $19.49 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-06 | 54,505 | $18.78 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-31 | 727 | $18.56 | $13,493.12 |
| 2026-03-19 | 705 | $18.25 | $12,866.25 |
| 2026-03-18 | 8,906 | $18.66 | $166,185.96 |
| 2026-03-09 | 772 | $18.57 | $14,336.04 |
| 2026-03-05 | 325,737 | $19.51 | $6.4M |
| 2026-02-23 | 138 | $20.39 | $2,813.82 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2,373 | $19.38 | $45,988.74 |
| 2026-02-02 | 15 | $18.35 | $275.25 |
| 2026-01-30 | 8,833 | $18.60 | $164,293.8 |
| 2026-01-28 | 36 | $18.92 | $681.12 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,860 | $18.00 | $69,480 |
| 2026-01-09 | 22,125 | $17.56 | $388,515 |
| 2025-12-30 | 62,184 | $15.68 | $975,045.12 |
| 2025-12-17 | 6,255 | $15.32 | $95,826.6 |
| 2025-12-08 | 775 | $16.17 | $12,531.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 644 | $16.30 | $10,497.2 |
| 2025-12-04 | 1,317 | $16.32 | $21,493.44 |
| 2025-11-12 | 350 | $15.69 | $5,491.5 |
| 2025-10-28 | 4,620 | $13.95 | $64,449 |
| 2025-10-21 | 28 | $12.76 | $357.28 |
| 2025-10-20 | 12,330 | $12.66 | $156,097.8 |
| 2025-10-14 | 18,052 | $12.71 | $229,440.92 |
| 2025-10-10 | 978 | $13.15 | $12,860.7 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SLB | 0.744 | 0.678 | High co-movement |
| HAL | 0.711 | 0.664 | High co-movement |
| PTEN | 0.704 | 0.601 | High co-movement |
| HP | 0.696 | 0.677 | Moderate |
| WFRD | 0.690 | 0.622 | Moderate |
| WHD | 0.679 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| NE | 0.666 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| BKR | 0.654 | 0.664 | Moderate |
| RIG | 0.642 | 0.617 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare NOV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.