Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicSW trades at 57.2x earnings — a 63% premium to its sector average of 35.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.5. DCF fair value of $80 implies 91% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Smurfit Westrock Plc reveal a significant divergence between operational efficiency and capital allocation effectiveness, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -4.6%. This negative spread indicates that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital, despite maintaining a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 which signals moderate financial strength. The DuPont decomposition clarifies this dynamic: while leverage (Equity Multiplier at 2.46x) and asset turnover (0.69x) are contributing factors, the primary driver is an exceptionally thin net margin of 2.2%, even as gross margins hold steady at 19.4%. Although the Altman Z-Score of 1.5 suggests elevated bankruptcy risk compared to industry peers and insider activity over the last 90 days shows $3.36 million in net selling, the Beneish M-Score of -2.62 provides some reassurance regarding earnings manipulation risks.
Valuation metrics present a complex picture where current multiples diverge sharply from intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E of 29.5x, which is substantially lower than the sector average of 42.1x, yet significantly higher than what the DCF model implies given its projected free cash flow growth rate of 7.6% over ten years. This discrepancy results in a calculated fair value of $85, implying potential upside that may not be fully justified by current profitability metrics or capital efficiency. The market appears to be pricing in future margin expansion rather than acknowledging the present drag on returns caused by the negative ROIC spread and low net margins.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators suggest the stock possesses specific factor tilts despite recent insider outflows. With a Fama-French annual alpha of 6.36% and a robust profitability score (RMW) of 0.236, the asset demonstrates strong risk-adjusted returns driven by earnings quality rather than value characteristics, as evidenced by its neutral HML factor of 0.083. However, investors must weigh these positive alpha drivers against the structural headwinds presented by the negative capital spread and insider selling pressure, which collectively challenge the sustainability of the implied growth assumptions embedded in current pricing models.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 48% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $110 | $66 | $44 |
| 3% | $144 | $80 | $51 |
| 4% | $204 | $100 | $60 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $42.24.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $80 (+90.8%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% above its 5-year average P/E of 29.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.4520 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.4520 | +4.9% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.4310 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $0.4310 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.4310 | +42.2% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.3030 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.3030 | -76.2% |
| 2024-04-11 | $1.2720 | +261.4% |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.3520 | -70.2% |
| 2023-04-13 | $1.1830 | +284.1% |
| 2022-09-29 | $0.3080 | -70.6% |
| 2022-04-07 | $1.0480 | +205.5% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLB or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SW shares regardless of Smurfit Westrock Plc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to SW through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Smurfit Westrock Plc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SW. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 20 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SW Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 SW shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.5% of the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and 1.3% of the VAW (VAW). Across 20 tracked ETFs, approximately 73M shares (13.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SW Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 20 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SW Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Smurfit Westrock Plc over the past year sits near $41.84 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $42.24 trades 1.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SW Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Smurfit Westrock Plc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Smurfit Westrock Plc converts 28% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 72% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 1,194 | $40.44 | $48,285.36 |
| 2026-05-11 | 461 | $41.55 | $19,154.55 |
| 2026-05-08 | 644 | $41.63 | $26,809.72 |
| 2026-05-07 | 571 | $41.89 | $23,919.19 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2,621 | $39.51 | $103,555.71 |
| 2026-05-04 | 47,683 | $39.43 | $1.9M |
| 2026-05-01 | 53,165 | $38.39 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-29 | 29,451 | $40.56 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-22 | 10 | $41.22 | $412.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 314,011 | $42.24 | $13.3M |
| 2026-04-17 | 140,354 | $41.20 | $5.8M |
| 2026-04-16 | 10,227 | $41.40 | $423,397.8 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9,519 | $42.10 | $400,749.9 |
| 2026-04-14 | 9,957 | $42.11 | $419,289.27 |
| 2026-04-13 | 3,013 | $42.06 | $126,726.78 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1 | $42.28 | $42.28 |
| 2026-04-07 | 35,551 | $40.11 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-02 | 1,965 | $40.13 | $78,855.45 |
| 2026-03-27 | 12 | $40.44 | $485.28 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,581 | $40.67 | $64,299.27 |
| 2026-03-25 | 52 | $39.86 | $2,072.72 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,212,242 | $36.21 | $43.9M |
| 2026-03-19 | 91 | $38.58 | $3,510.78 |
| 2026-03-18 | 7,930 | $40.08 | $317,834.4 |
| 2026-03-16 | 13,352 | $39.75 | $530,742 |
| 2026-03-13 | 43,790 | $39.71 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-12 | 2,786 | $42.20 | $117,569.2 |
| 2026-03-11 | 70,811 | $42.74 | $3.0M |
| 2026-03-09 | 14,959 | $42.85 | $640,993.15 |
| 2026-03-06 | 239,972 | $44.59 | $10.7M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| IP | 0.761 | 0.746 | High co-movement |
| PKG | 0.715 | 0.724 | High co-movement |
| MAS | 0.604 | 0.638 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.594 | 0.626 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.586 | 0.566 | Moderate |
| BLD | 0.586 | 0.575 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.575 | 0.600 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.574 | 0.554 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.573 | 0.597 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SW to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.