AT&T Inc. (T)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 8.2x earnings — a 75% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — T is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.0. DCF fair value of $142 implies 455% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of this telecommunications operator presents a nuanced picture where modest returns on invested capital slightly outpace the cost of equity, generating a narrow 0.6% spread between ROIC and WACC. Despite this tight margin for value creation, earnings power is amplified by significant financial leverage, as evidenced by an Equity Multiplier of 3.27x driving a 17.1% DuPont ROE that relies heavily on the debt structure rather than operational efficiency or high asset turnover. Financial stability metrics reveal divergent signals; while the Beneish M-Score of -2.77 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 1.0 indicates proximity to distress thresholds despite a respectable Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflecting moderate fundamental strength over time.
Valuation metrics suggest substantial divergence between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models, with shares trading at 9.3x earnings compared to a sector average of 27.3x. A DCF analysis implies a fair value significantly higher than current levels, translating to an approximate 364% upside based on the model's assumptions; however, this valuation premium is predicated on long-term free cash flow growth projections that currently assume a negative annualized rate over the next decade. The market appears to be pricing in persistent headwinds or structural constraints that justify the deep discount relative to both historical norms and fundamental DCF outputs, creating a wide gap between consensus expectations and intrinsic value estimates derived from cash flow modeling.
Risk-adjusted performance indicators highlight specific factor exposures that may influence future trajectories. The stock demonstrates strong alignment with value investing principles, evidenced by a positive 0.387 loading on the HML factor alongside robust profitability characteristics indicated by a 0.207 RMW score. This combination of deep valuation and solid earnings quality has historically generated alpha, reflected in an annual Fama-French return of 4.62%. However, the lack of insider activity over the last ninety days offers no additional signal regarding management's view on near-term prospects, leaving the investment case dependent entirely on whether the market will re-rate expectations to align with the DCF-derived fair value or if structural challenges will persist.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.5% | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $126 | $110 | $70 |
| 3% | $169 | $142 | $83 |
| 4% | $253 | $199 | $102 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $24.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $142 (+455.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 2% below its 5-year average P/E of 8.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of T is above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, suggesting that the stock is in an uptrend relative to these technical indicators. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 46.6, the security currently sits near the midpoint between oversold and overbought levels, indicating it may be holding within a balanced range without extreme strength or weakness at this time.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-12 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-10 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-09 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-09 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.2780 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -295,000 | -62.0% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -584,700 | -76.4% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +9,234,597 | +3651.5% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +1,734,700 | +56.0% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -4,487,446 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +160,363 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -5,454,069 | -74.4% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | +1,867,795 | +71.3% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | -74,500 | -13.5% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -37,777 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -444,400 | -12.6% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +7,310,980 | +30462.4% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or VOX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell T shares regardless of AT&T Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $20.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to T through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AT&T Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AT&T Inc. (T) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with T. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 38 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
T Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 T shares, reducing daily market volatility.
AT&T Inc. (T) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 10.8% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 3.9% of the VOX (VOX). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 845M shares (12.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest T Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
T Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for AT&T Inc. over the past year sits near $25.38 (8% of 252-day volume). The current price of $24.64 sits 2.9% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
T Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AT&T Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AT&T Inc. converts 36% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 64% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.8% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 2,378 | $25.57 | $60,805.46 |
| 2026-05-04 | 3 | $26.12 | $78.36 |
| 2026-05-01 | 640 | $26.13 | $16,723.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | 13,146 | $25.98 | $341,533.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 57 | $25.62 | $1,460.34 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,239 | $25.61 | $31,730.79 |
| 2026-04-10 | 447 | $26.84 | $11,997.48 |
| 2026-04-07 | 78,212 | $28.32 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-06 | 47 | $28.33 | $1,331.51 |
| 2026-03-30 | 1,155 | $29.10 | $33,610.5 |
| 2026-03-25 | 151 | $28.87 | $4,359.37 |
| 2026-03-24 | 500 | $28.76 | $14,380 |
| 2026-03-23 | 29,787 | $28.31 | $843,269.97 |
| 2026-03-18 | 7,227 | $27.85 | $201,271.95 |
| 2026-03-12 | 20,976 | $27.16 | $569,708.16 |
| 2026-03-03 | 124,314 | $28.01 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-02 | 400 | $28.01 | $11,204 |
| 2026-02-23 | 7,258 | $27.98 | $203,078.84 |
| 2026-02-17 | 244,739 | $28.69 | $7.0M |
| 2026-02-12 | 5,751 | $28.47 | $163,730.97 |
| 2026-02-10 | 546 | $27.11 | $14,802.06 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,100 | $27.13 | $29,843 |
| 2026-02-02 | 1,318 | $26.21 | $34,544.78 |
| 2026-01-27 | 8 | $23.45 | $187.6 |
| 2026-01-20 | 200 | $23.49 | $4,698 |
| 2026-01-14 | 143 | $23.30 | $3,331.9 |
| 2026-01-12 | 26,536 | $23.99 | $636,598.64 |
| 2026-01-09 | 12,500 | $24.17 | $302,125 |
| 2026-01-02 | 15 | $24.84 | $372.6 |
| 2025-12-31 | 225 | $24.81 | $5,582.25 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 9,487,497 | $275,042,538K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 4,830,900 | $140,047,791K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 1,880,911 | $54,527,610K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 181,100 | $5,250,089K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 180,200 | $5,223,998K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 160,363 | $4,648,923K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 7,334,980 | $182,200,903K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 4,487,446 | $111,468,159K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 3,096,200 | $76,909,608K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 764,900 | $19,000,116K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 476,100 | $11,826,324K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 252,900 | $6,282,036K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 3,540,600 | $99,986,544K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q3 | 2,619,651 | $73,978,944K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q3 | 1,910,000 | $53,938,400K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VZ | 0.692 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| TMUS | 0.632 | 0.666 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.382 | 0.272 | Moderate |
| ED | 0.365 | 0.235 | Moderate |
| WEC | 0.347 | 0.238 | Moderate |
| KMI | 0.326 | 0.306 | Moderate |
| DVA | 0.308 | 0.336 | Moderate |
| WRB | 0.308 | 0.238 | Moderate |
| AMT | 0.308 | 0.203 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare T to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.