Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 11.7x earnings — a 64% discount to the sector average of 32.1x — VZ is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 1.3. DCF fair value of $330 implies 626% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedVerizon Communications Inc. exhibits a capital allocation profile where the ROIC-WACC spread of +1.2% indicates modest but positive value creation relative to its cost of equity, though this margin is narrow compared to high-growth peers. The DuPont decomposition reveals that an ROE of 16.2% is driven primarily by financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.82x) rather than operational efficiency or pricing power, as evidenced by the low asset turnover of 0.34x and moderate net margin expansion to 12.4%. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.68 suggests earnings quality is unlikely to be manipulated, the Altman Z-Score of 1.3 flags elevated bankruptcy risk that warrants scrutiny given the company's heavy debt structure typical in capital-intensive telecommunications.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models; trading at 12.2x P/E versus a sector average of 27.3x, the stock appears deeply undervalued relative to its peers. The DCF model implies significant upside with a fair value of $431 and an estimated 757.6% premium over current levels, yet this projection relies on assumptions that conflict sharply with the implied free cash flow growth rate of -6.6% over ten years. This discrepancy suggests the market is pricing in persistent stagnation or decline rather than the robust profitability factor (RMW) score of 0.324, creating a scenario where fundamental valuations and forward-looking expectations are misaligned.
Risk-adjusted performance data highlights a complex picture for risk-averse capital; while the Fama-French alpha stands at an impressive 17.39% annually and the value factor (HML) registers positively at 0.217, these momentum signals may be decoupled from recent insider activity. Over the past ninety days, net selling by insiders totaled $12,021,506, a signal that often precedes downside pressure despite the attractive valuation multiples and strong profitability tilt. Investors must weigh whether the deep discount to fair value compensates for both the elevated solvency risk indicated by the Altman score and the potential lack of confidence from corporate insiders.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $276 | $253 | $159 |
| 3% | $368 | $330 | $189 |
| 4% | $552 | $473 | $234 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $47.87.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $330 (+625.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 6% above its 5-year average P/E of 10.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedVerizon's stock is currently trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong upward trend. The RSI at 67.1 suggests that near-term momentum remains robust but approaching overbought territory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | $0.7080 | +2.6% |
| 2026-01-12 | $0.6900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.6900 | +1.8% |
| 2025-07-10 | $0.6780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-10 | $0.6780 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-10 | $0.6780 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-10 | $0.6780 | +2.0% |
| 2024-07-10 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-09 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-09 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-06 | $0.6650 | +1.8% |
| 2023-07-07 | $0.6530 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +689,100 | +460.9% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -527,642 | -95.5% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +43,292 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +1,492,477 | +231.5% | Increased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +23,100 | +1.4% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +310,160 | +248.8% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | +455,400 | +8.6% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +11,500 | +145.6% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +538,432 | +3897.4% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +3,033,700 | +135.5% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -439,066 | -77.9% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | -54,100 | -87.3% | Decreased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or SCHD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell VZ shares regardless of Verizon Communications Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $26.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to VZ through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Verizon Communications Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with VZ. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 39 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
VZ Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 VZ shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 12.0% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 4.3% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 573M shares (13.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest VZ Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
VZ Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Verizon Communications Inc. over the past year sits near $39.48 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $47.87 trades 21.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
VZ Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Verizon Communications Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Verizon Communications Inc. converts 41% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 59% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 150 | $47.23 | $7,084.5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 186,697 | $47.09 | $8.8M |
| 2026-05-06 | 14,512 | $47.34 | $686,998.08 |
| 2026-05-05 | 37,717 | $47.57 | $1.8M |
| 2026-05-04 | 7,039 | $48.11 | $338,646.29 |
| 2026-05-01 | 61,053 | $48.03 | $2.9M |
| 2026-04-30 | 36,228 | $46.61 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,526 | $47.24 | $119,328.24 |
| 2026-04-22 | 99,938 | $46.27 | $4.6M |
| 2026-04-20 | 500 | $46.55 | $23,275 |
| 2026-04-16 | 19 | $45.03 | $855.57 |
| 2026-04-15 | 33 | $45.48 | $1,500.84 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,251 | $47.78 | $59,772.78 |
| 2026-04-08 | 136,693 | $48.62 | $6.6M |
| 2026-04-07 | 62 | $49.15 | $3,047.3 |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,550 | $50.91 | $129,820.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 86,542 | $49.98 | $4.3M |
| 2026-03-18 | 10,576 | $50.52 | $534,299.52 |
| 2026-03-16 | 1,000 | $51.38 | $51,380 |
| 2026-03-12 | 57 | $50.68 | $2,888.76 |
| 2026-03-09 | 1,249 | $51.12 | $63,848.88 |
| 2026-03-05 | 3,187 | $51.20 | $163,174.4 |
| 2026-03-02 | 8,627 | $50.14 | $432,557.78 |
| 2026-02-27 | 13,670 | $48.89 | $668,326.3 |
| 2026-02-25 | 645 | $49.86 | $32,159.7 |
| 2026-02-23 | 76,977 | $49.25 | $3.8M |
| 2026-02-20 | 15,444 | $48.64 | $751,196.16 |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,694 | $48.05 | $81,396.7 |
| 2026-02-18 | 399 | $48.93 | $19,523.07 |
| 2026-02-17 | 220,798 | $49.01 | $10.8M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 5,728,400 | $287,565,680K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 2,137,177 | $107,286,285K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 1,712,393 | $85,962,129K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 838,600 | $42,097,720K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 434,829 | $21,828,416K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 43,292 | $2,173,258K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 24,605 | $1,235,171K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 19,400 | $973,880K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 5,273,000 | $214,769,290K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 1,689,293 | $68,804,904K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 644,700 | $26,258,631K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 552,247 | $22,493,020K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 149,500 | $6,089,135K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 124,669 | $5,077,768K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 7,900 | $321,767K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| T | 0.692 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| TMUS | 0.592 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| CL | 0.421 | 0.430 | Moderate |
| GIS | 0.372 | 0.379 | Moderate |
| CAG | 0.361 | 0.383 | Moderate |
| DVA | 0.357 | 0.390 | Moderate |
| DUK | 0.354 | 0.239 | Moderate |
| MO | 0.352 | 0.325 | Moderate |
| O | 0.349 | 0.241 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare VZ to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.