BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBWXT trades at 52.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 6.3. DCF fair value of $80 implies 66% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of BWX Technologies present a complex picture where robust profitability metrics clash with weak capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that returns are driven primarily by high net margins and significant financial leverage rather than asset turnover, the ROIC-WACC spread of merely 0.4% indicates value creation is barely outpacing the cost of capital. This narrow margin for error suggests limited pricing power or inefficient capital deployment relative to sector peers. Credit metrics offer a mixed signal; an Altman Z-Score of 6.0 points to a safe zone regarding bankruptcy risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.41 implies earnings are likely not manipulated. However, the low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 highlights structural weaknesses in financial health or profitability trends that contradict the top-line revenue growth narrative.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in aggressive future performance that current cash flows do yet support. Trading at a forward P/E of nearly 60x, which significantly exceeds the industrial sector average of 43-44x, implies investors expect sustained acceleration beyond historical norms. This premium valuation aligns with an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 26.4%, a figure that appears disconnected from current fundamentals given the narrow ROIC spread and modest margin environment. A discounted cash flow analysis places fair value at $79, implying a substantial downside risk if earnings fail to meet these lofty expectations or if multiple compression occurs due to valuation dilution relative to peers.
Recent insider activity adds another layer of caution to the risk-reward profile, with net selling totaling over $2.7 million in the last 90 days. This outflow from management during a period where valuations are already stretched suggests potential concerns about future execution or capital allocation that are not yet reflected in public guidance. The combination of an expensive multiple, insider distribution, and a fragile ROIC spread creates a scenario where downside protection is thin despite strong revenue growth and low distress probabilities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 18% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $103 | $69 | $50 |
| 3% | $126 | $80 | $56 |
| 4% | $164 | $95 | $64 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $187.26.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $80 (-65.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 50% above its 5-year average P/E of 42.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedBWX Technologies, Inc. is currently trading at $204.72 within the Industrials sector. To assess momentum and trend direction without specific moving average data points in this snapshot, one would typically compare the current price level against key averages such as the 50-day or 200-day lines to determine if bullish or bearish control exists. In the absence of those precise figures here, the focus shifts entirely to relative strength indicators that might be inferred from recent market behavior. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a critical gauge for short-term momentum and potential overbought or oversold conditions. While exact RSI values are not provided in this specific data set, their interpretation generally reveals whether price appreciation is accelerating into exhaustion zones or if selling pressure has created a floor that could support further gains. A reading significantly above 70 often signals stretched prices requiring consolidation, whereas levels below 30 might indicate capitulation and potential reversal opportunities. Without the explicit moving average crossover data or specific RSI readings required for a definitive trend classification, the technical picture remains descriptive rather than prescriptive. The current price of $204.72 stands as an isolated figure until contextualized by its relationship to historical averages and momentum oscillators. Market participants must await further confirmation from these missing indicators before forming conclusions about whether the stock is in a sustained uptrend, a downtrend, or experiencing a period of sideways consolidation.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | $0.2700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-11 | $0.2700 | +8.0% |
| 2025-11-19 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-18 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | $0.2500 | +4.2% |
| 2024-11-19 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-16 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $0.2400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-08 | $0.2400 | +4.3% |
| 2023-11-20 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.2300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XAR or ARKX, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BWXT shares regardless of BWX Technologies, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to BWXT through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in BWX Technologies, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TESLA INC (TSLA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BWXT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 21 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BWXT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 BWXT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the XAR (XAR) and 1.6% of the ARKX (ARKX). Across 21 tracked ETFs, approximately 11M shares (11.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest BWXT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BWXT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for BWX Technologies, Inc. over the past year sits near $203.45 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $187.26 sits 8.0% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
BWXT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does BWX Technologies, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
BWX Technologies, Inc. converts 54% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 24 | $215.20 | $5,164.8 |
| 2026-05-01 | 12,990 | $216.39 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-29 | 35 | $216.18 | $7,566.3 |
| 2026-04-22 | 988 | $216.66 | $214,060.08 |
| 2026-04-21 | 26 | $228.24 | $5,934.24 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4,501 | $235.78 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-14 | 4,139 | $232.83 | $963,683.37 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1 | $205.09 | $205.09 |
| 2026-03-26 | 128 | $222.13 | $28,432.64 |
| 2026-03-25 | 303 | $204.76 | $62,042.28 |
| 2026-03-24 | 112 | $204.85 | $22,943.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 200 | $199.75 | $39,950 |
| 2026-03-20 | 467 | $210.12 | $98,126.04 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,999 | $200.39 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-26 | 334 | $208.27 | $69,562.18 |
| 2026-02-23 | 200 | $206.44 | $41,288 |
| 2026-02-03 | 260 | $206.04 | $53,570.4 |
| 2026-01-07 | 15 | $195.30 | $2,929.5 |
| 2025-12-31 | 40 | $174.36 | $6,974.4 |
| 2025-12-30 | 13 | $175.49 | $2,281.37 |
| 2025-12-29 | 3,597 | $175.88 | $632,640.36 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,798 | $176.43 | $493,651.14 |
| 2025-12-16 | 215 | $174.37 | $37,489.55 |
| 2025-12-12 | 5,125 | $183.38 | $939,822.5 |
| 2025-12-05 | 48 | $178.33 | $8,559.84 |
| 2025-12-02 | 776 | $174.93 | $135,745.68 |
| 2025-11-20 | 5,059 | $179.81 | $909,658.79 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2,890 | $195.65 | $565,428.5 |
| 2025-11-06 | 1,222 | $198.12 | $242,102.64 |
| 2025-10-31 | 10,048 | $213.80 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CW | 0.727 | 0.826 | High co-movement |
| PWR | 0.571 | 0.728 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.541 | 0.653 | Moderate |
| LEU | 0.518 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.495 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| KTOS | 0.494 | 0.591 | Moderate |
| BE | 0.483 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| CIEN | 0.483 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| HWM | 0.475 | 0.595 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare BWXT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.