Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicENPH trades at 67.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.0. DCF fair value of $5 implies 84% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Enphase Energy reveal a significant divergence between current profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition indicates that earnings power is driven primarily by leverage rather than operational intensity, with an equity multiplier of 3.23x offsetting modest asset turnover of 0.42x, the return on invested capital generates a negative spread relative to the cost of capital at -5.0%. This structural inefficiency contrasts sharply with strong balance sheet metrics; the Altman Z-Score of 2.4 suggests moderate solvency, and the Beneish M-Score of -2.39 signals low earnings manipulation risk despite a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflecting recent financial weakness. The narrative is further complicated by weak profitability factor alpha (-0.461), indicating that while net margins remain healthy at 11.7%, the firm's ability to generate excess returns on assets has deteriorated compared to its sector peers.
Valuation metrics present a stark disconnect between market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow projections. Although revenue growth moderates at 10.7% year-over-year, the current P/E of 24.2x trades substantially below the technology sector average of 58.2x, yet this discount is not fully justified by fundamental valuation frameworks. A discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value significantly lower than current trading levels, resulting in an estimated downside of -86.8%, which suggests the market may be pricing in sustained high growth that contradicts the implied free cash flow trajectory. This discrepancy highlights a potential misalignment where historical momentum or sector tailwinds support the multiple despite the underlying capital destruction indicated by the negative ROIC-WACC spread and depressed DCF fair value.
Risk-adjusted performance data underscores significant headwinds for long-term equity holders, characterized by substantial underperformance relative to standard factor benchmarks. The annual Fama-French alpha of -42.62% indicates severe underperformance after adjusting for market risk, while the negative profitability factor reinforces concerns regarding operational efficiency trends. Compounding these fundamental and valuation pressures is notable insider activity, with $5,783,295 in net selling over the last 90 days, a signal that management may view current valuations as elevated relative to future prospects. Collectively, these factors suggest an investment case fraught with capital efficiency risks and valuation compression, independent of any specific directional recommendation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.1% | 12.1% | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $6 | $5 | $4 |
| 3% | $7 | $5 | $4 |
| 4% | $8 | $6 | $4 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $72.33.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $5 (-83.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 26% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedEnphase Energy, Inc. is currently trading at $46.76 within the technology sector, presenting a technical setup where price action relative to moving averages becomes critical for assessing trend direction. If the current valuation sits above key short-term and long-term moving averages, it would indicate an established bullish structure with potential upward inertia; conversely, positioning below these lines suggests bearish pressure or a corrective phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a vital gauge for short-term momentum in this context, where readings near overbought thresholds might signal potential exhaustion following recent gains, while oversold conditions could imply a temporary lack of buying strength despite broader market trends. Market participants should observe whether the stock maintains its position relative to these dynamic averages to confirm if the prevailing trend is intact or undergoing reversal. A sustained gap above the moving average line often correlates with continued investor interest and upward price discovery, whereas repeated failures to reclaim higher levels after dipping below could point to weakening demand. The interplay between the current $46.76 level and historical support zones derived from these averages will likely dictate near-term volatility patterns. Ultimately, the technical narrative hinges on whether momentum indicators like RSI align with the directional bias established by moving average crossovers and price placement, offering a factual backdrop for further analysis without prescribing specific trading actions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYV or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ENPH shares regardless of Enphase Energy, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $254M of passive capital is structurally linked to ENPH through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ENPH's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Enphase Energy, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ENPH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ENPH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 16 ENPH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.0% of the SLYV (SLYV) and 0.5% of the SPSM (SPSM). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 8M shares (6.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ENPH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ENPH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Enphase Energy, Inc. over the past year sits near $36.57 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $72.33 trades 97.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ENPH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Enphase Energy, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Enphase Energy, Inc. converts 33% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 67% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.8%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2,522 | $42.00 | $105,924 |
| 2026-05-12 | 70,116 | $37.65 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-11 | 500 | $36.45 | $18,225 |
| 2026-05-08 | 105 | $35.47 | $3,724.35 |
| 2026-05-07 | 64,029 | $35.80 | $2.3M |
| 2026-05-06 | 17,471 | $36.02 | $629,305.42 |
| 2026-05-05 | 44,529 | $32.54 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-01 | 46,115 | $32.96 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | 4,208 | $35.77 | $150,520.16 |
| 2026-04-23 | 8,312 | $35.36 | $293,912.32 |
| 2026-04-14 | 16,736 | $31.37 | $525,008.32 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1,573 | $32.04 | $50,398.92 |
| 2026-03-27 | 23,182 | $40.18 | $931,452.76 |
| 2026-03-24 | 23,310 | $40.76 | $950,115.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,523 | $44.11 | $243,619.53 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,472 | $44.64 | $65,710.08 |
| 2026-03-16 | 700 | $44.07 | $30,849 |
| 2026-03-12 | 8,656 | $43.34 | $375,151.04 |
| 2026-03-11 | 21,886 | $43.59 | $954,010.74 |
| 2026-03-04 | 9,926 | $43.20 | $428,803.2 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,916 | $46.56 | $89,208.96 |
| 2026-02-20 | 394 | $44.25 | $17,434.5 |
| 2026-02-09 | 11,100 | $49.80 | $552,780 |
| 2026-02-05 | 44 | $51.67 | $2,273.48 |
| 2026-02-04 | 33,498 | $37.28 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-02 | 100 | $36.98 | $3,698 |
| 2026-01-30 | 33,801 | $38.25 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-29 | 120,667 | $40.47 | $4.9M |
| 2026-01-28 | 492 | $39.93 | $19,645.56 |
| 2026-01-27 | 32,389 | $39.42 | $1.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DD | 0.385 | 0.448 | Moderate |
| NEE | 0.371 | 0.200 | Moderate |
| AMCR | 0.366 | 0.443 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.348 | 0.488 | Moderate |
| FTV | 0.348 | 0.403 | Moderate |
| NXT | 0.344 | 0.329 | Moderate |
| J | 0.343 | 0.427 | Moderate |
| FSLR | 0.337 | 0.258 | Moderate |
| BSX | -0.326 | -0.454 | Inverse / hedge |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ENPH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.