Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.2x earnings — a 50% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — FERG is in the lower valuation range.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFerguson Enterprises Inc. is currently trading at $225.68 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot of its recent market positioning without explicit directional guidance regarding future price movements. The immediate technical picture relies on interpreting how this specific price level interacts with key moving averages to gauge trend strength and momentum direction. If the current valuation sits above these dynamic average lines, it typically signals that buyers have maintained control over recent sessions, suggesting an upward bias in short-term sentiment. Conversely, a position below these benchmarks would indicate selling pressure has recently outweighed buying interest, potentially pointing toward a corrective phase or consolidation pattern. The Relative Strength Index serves as a critical gauge for the velocity of this price action, offering insight into whether the asset is approaching overbought or oversold extremes based on recent closing prices. A reading in the upper range implies strong bullish momentum where upward pressure has been consistent, while lower values suggest weakening strength or potential exhaustion in prior rallies. These metrics combine to form a cohesive narrative about market psychology rather than predicting specific future outcomes. Traders observing this setup must weigh the interplay between trend alignment and momentum indicators to assess whether the current trajectory is sustainable or if a reversal might be imminent based on historical behavior patterns associated with these technical thresholds.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.8900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-06 | $0.8900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.8900 | +7.2% |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-20 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-21 | $0.8300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.8300 | +5.1% |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.7900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.7900 | +5.3% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.7500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VOE or VIS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FERG shares regardless of Ferguson Enterprises Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to FERG through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ferguson Enterprises Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with FERG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 18 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FERG Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 FERG shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.9% of the VOE (VOE) and 0.7% of the VIS (VIS). Across 18 tracked ETFs, approximately 17M shares (8.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest FERG Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 18 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FERG Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ferguson Enterprises Inc. over the past year sits near $225.23 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $227.60 trades 1.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | 1,604 | $260.80 | $418,323.2 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,360 | $264.27 | $359,407.2 |
| 2026-04-27 | 47,000 | $263.59 | $12.4M |
| 2026-04-20 | 24 | $260.49 | $6,251.76 |
| 2026-04-16 | 693 | $257.16 | $178,211.88 |
| 2026-04-15 | 453 | $258.86 | $117,263.58 |
| 2026-04-08 | 7 | $235.92 | $1,651.44 |
| 2026-04-02 | 2,251 | $239.06 | $538,124.06 |
| 2026-03-24 | 363 | $222.50 | $80,767.5 |
| 2026-02-20 | 27 | $257.84 | $6,961.68 |
| 2026-02-19 | 35 | $260.00 | $9,100 |
| 2026-02-12 | 4,677 | $267.36 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-11 | 4,878 | $263.88 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-05 | 30,852 | $261.05 | $8.1M |
| 2026-01-30 | 2,128 | $256.43 | $545,683.04 |
| 2026-01-29 | 9,197 | $251.73 | $2.3M |
| 2026-01-15 | 107 | $246.10 | $26,332.7 |
| 2026-01-14 | 1,010 | $243.10 | $245,531 |
| 2025-12-29 | 254 | $228.69 | $58,087.26 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1,267 | $228.53 | $289,547.51 |
| 2025-12-22 | 8,850 | $228.85 | $2.0M |
| 2025-12-19 | 11 | $226.06 | $2,486.66 |
| 2025-12-18 | 37 | $225.00 | $8,325 |
| 2025-12-12 | 137 | $228.20 | $31,263.4 |
| 2025-12-05 | 8,297 | $249.52 | $2.1M |
| 2025-11-21 | 732 | $231.69 | $169,597.08 |
| 2025-11-18 | 1,126 | $235.69 | $265,386.94 |
| 2025-11-13 | 13 | $253.13 | $3,290.69 |
| 2025-11-12 | 17 | $254.13 | $4,320.21 |
| 2025-11-06 | 1,181 | $249.00 | $294,069 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| BLD | 0.550 | 0.724 | Moderate |
| BLDR | 0.537 | 0.660 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.509 | 0.589 | Moderate |
| TOL | 0.508 | 0.625 | Moderate |
| WMS | 0.506 | 0.580 | Moderate |
| CMI | 0.504 | 0.593 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.502 | 0.678 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.496 | 0.685 | Moderate |
| LII | 0.488 | 0.567 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FERG to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.