GE Vernova Inc. (GEV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 28.3x earnings — a 37% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — GEV is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 4.0. DCF fair value of $382 implies 61% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a distinct dichotomy between high leverage-driven returns and inefficient capital allocation. While the DuPont decomposition reveals that Return on Equity is inflated by an equity multiplier of 5.12x rather than operational efficiency, evidenced by modest asset turnover at 0.60x, the underlying capital generation quality is poor with a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -6.0%. This indicates value destruction on invested capital despite a high Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggesting stable fundamentals and a Beneish M-Score of -2.32 implying low earnings manipulation risk; however, the Altman Z-Score of 3.8 signals moderate distress territory that warrants caution regarding solvency under stress scenarios.
Valuation metrics suggest significant market divergence from intrinsic value models, with the current P/E ratio of 50.8x trading at a substantial premium to historical norms and sector peers. This pricing appears inconsistent with the Discounted Cash Flow fair value estimate of $439, which implies nearly -50% downside potential given existing levels, driven by an assumption of aggressive long-term free cash flow growth averaging 25.1%. The stock exhibits a pronounced tilt toward the Growth factor while simultaneously displaying weakness in the Profitability factor (RMW), creating a valuation profile that relies heavily on future expansion rather than current earnings power or margin durability.
Risk factors are amplified by recent insider activity, characterized by $4.5 million of net selling over the last 90 days, which often precedes downward revisions in analyst expectations. The Fama-French alpha data further complicates the risk-reward picture; while the annualized alpha is exceptionally high at 89.80%, this performance is counterbalanced by a negative Value Factor exposure (-0.536) and weak profitability signals, suggesting that recent outperformance may be driven by momentum or specific idiosyncratic events rather than sustainable fundamental shifts in capital efficiency.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 10.2% | 12.2% | 14.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $443 | $355 | $295 |
| 3% | $491 | $382 | $313 |
| 4% | $553 | $416 | $334 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $969.67.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $382 (-61.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 105% above its 5-year average P/E of 27.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price level of $1,024.52 for GE Vernova Inc. presents a specific point in the market's trajectory within the Industrials sector, yet the provided data lacks essential context regarding recent drawdowns or volatility metrics necessary to fully assess risk dynamics without speculation. Without information on how far the stock has retreated from its highs or the magnitude of price fluctuations over time, it is impossible to determine whether any observed momentum represents a robust structural shift or a potentially fragile trend susceptible to sharp corrections. The absence of fundamental backdrop details further limits the ability to correlate current pricing with underlying earnings quality or growth sustainability. Consequently, while the absolute price point suggests significant nominal value, the technical setup remains incomplete for a definitive assessment of risk exposure. A comprehensive view requires understanding the relationship between recent losses and current stability; if volatility were high relative to the drawdown, it might indicate stress in the trend's foundation rather than strength. Conversely, low volatility following a substantial pullback could imply consolidation before further movement, but this cannot be confirmed with the limited dataset available. Ultimately, the technical picture relies on variables not present here, such as moving averages, volume profiles, and historical variance. Investors must weigh these missing elements against the current price to form their own conclusions about whether GEV's trajectory is supported by solid fundamentals or merely temporary market sentiment. The lack of volatility data specifically prevents an evaluation of how quickly prices might reverse if adverse news emerges, leaving the structural integrity of any
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-05 | $0.5000 | +100.0% |
| 2025-10-20 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-21 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.2500 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLI or VIS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GEV shares regardless of GE Vernova Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $30.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to GEV through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in GE Vernova Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GEV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GEV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 GEV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.3% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) and 4.2% of the VIS (VIS). Across 25 tracked ETFs, approximately 32M shares (11.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GEV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 25 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GEV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for GE Vernova Inc. over the past year sits near $620.61 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $969.67 trades 56.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GEV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does GE Vernova Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
GE Vernova Inc. converts 165% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-7.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 300 | $1149.19 | $344,757 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,500 | $1002.75 | $3.5M |
| 2026-04-13 | 2,100 | $991.32 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-10 | 2,199 | $968.02 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-08 | 4 | $910.75 | $3,643 |
| 2026-04-07 | 6 | $897.36 | $5,384.16 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,073 | $898.57 | $964,165.61 |
| 2026-03-25 | 886 | $909.41 | $805,737.26 |
| 2026-03-23 | 12,000 | $851.07 | $10.2M |
| 2026-03-17 | 200 | $827.37 | $165,474 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,540 | $815.01 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-02 | 100 | $873.60 | $87,360 |
| 2026-02-23 | 4,700 | $830.34 | $3.9M |
| 2026-02-10 | 170 | $801.54 | $136,261.8 |
| 2026-02-09 | 300 | $779.35 | $233,805 |
| 2026-01-21 | 30,041 | $684.86 | $20.6M |
| 2026-01-20 | 14,459 | $681.55 | $9.9M |
| 2026-01-15 | 121 | $644.18 | $77,945.78 |
| 2026-01-08 | 232 | $662.32 | $153,658.24 |
| 2026-01-07 | 885 | $686.33 | $607,402.05 |
| 2026-01-05 | 1,779 | $679.55 | $1.2M |
| 2025-12-30 | 32 | $663.46 | $21,230.72 |
| 2025-12-29 | 342 | $663.46 | $226,903.32 |
| 2025-12-22 | 290 | $658.28 | $190,901.2 |
| 2025-12-18 | 1 | $614.19 | $614.19 |
| 2025-12-16 | 9 | $681.35 | $6,132.15 |
| 2025-12-10 | 77 | $625.30 | $48,148.1 |
| 2025-12-08 | 900 | $631.32 | $568,188 |
| 2025-12-01 | 151 | $599.77 | $90,565.27 |
| 2025-11-25 | 785 | $580.49 | $455,684.65 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VRT | 0.622 | 0.621 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.609 | 0.644 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.597 | 0.640 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.573 | 0.592 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.524 | 0.594 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.517 | 0.519 | Moderate |
| CW | 0.516 | 0.573 | Moderate |
| TEL | 0.507 | 0.496 | Moderate |
| CIEN | 0.499 | 0.534 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GEV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.