Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicHON trades at 38.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 3.4. DCF fair value of $89 implies 62% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Honeywell International Inc. present a classic high-leverage growth profile, where the 31.5% ROE is driven primarily by an equity multiplier of 4.90x rather than superior margin expansion or asset efficiency. While the net margin of 12.6% and robust profitability factor score indicate strong operational pricing power, this return on invested capital generates only a modest 1.3% spread over the cost of capital, suggesting limited excess value creation relative to risk. Credit metrics reinforce this mixed picture; while the Altman Z-Score of 3.4 signals moderate safety and the Beneish M-Score of -2.58 effectively rules out earnings manipulation, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects a middling trajectory in financial strength compared to elite peers.
Valuation metrics reveal significant divergence between current market pricing and discounted cash flow models. Trading at 33.1x forward earnings, the stock commands a slight premium over the sector average of 32.1x, yet this multiple appears inconsistent with an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of just 16%. Most critically, the DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $90, implying approximately -60% downside from current levels if those long-term growth assumptions hold true. This wide gap indicates that the market is pricing in aggressive future expansion that may not be fully supported by the underlying capital efficiency or near-term cash generation capabilities.
Risk/reward dynamics are further complicated by conflicting signals regarding ownership and factor exposure. Although the stock exhibits positive Fama-French alpha of 3.61% annually, driven by its value tilt (HML: 0.130) and high profitability score, recent insider activity shows $6.4 million in net selling over the last ninety days. This internal disposition contrasts with the strong fundamental scores but aligns with a valuation that may already be stretched relative to intrinsic worth derived from standard DCF methodologies.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $113 | $78 | $58 |
| 3% | $136 | $89 | $64 |
| 4% | $173 | $104 | $72 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $235.23.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $89 (-61.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 20% below its 5-year average P/E of 42.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedHoneywell International Inc. is currently trading at $223.80 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot of its recent market positioning relative to key moving averages. The price's relationship with these trend lines indicates whether short-term momentum is aligning with longer-term directional forces or if divergence exists between immediate valuation and historical averages. Observers should note that when current pricing sits above established moving averages, it typically reflects sustained upward pressure, whereas a position below them often signals potential downward drift or consolidation phases. The Relative Strength Index provides further insight into the velocity of recent price movements without explicitly dictating future direction. If the RSI values hover near overbought thresholds, it may suggest that short-term momentum is accelerating to levels where immediate pullbacks could occur due to exhausted buying interest. Conversely, readings in oversold territory might indicate a period of selling pressure that has potentially reached an extreme, though this does not guarantee an imminent reversal. The interplay between the current price level and these technical metrics offers a composite view of market sentiment, highlighting whether the asset is exhibiting strength relative to its recent history or if caution regarding trend continuity may be warranted based on the specific alignment of these indicators at $223.80.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $1.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $1.1900 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $1.1900 | +11.7% |
| 2025-08-15 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-16 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $1.0650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $1.0650 | +4.6% |
| 2024-08-16 | $1.0179 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-16 | $1.0179 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-29 | $1.0179 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-09 | $1.0179 | +4.9% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.9708 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DIA or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HON shares regardless of Honeywell International Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $19.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to HON through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Honeywell International Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Honeywell International Inc. (HON) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with HON. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HON Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 HON shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.7% of the DIA (DIA) and 2.7% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 96M shares (15.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest HON Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HON Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Honeywell International Inc. over the past year sits near $196.75 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $235.23 trades 19.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
HON Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Honeywell International Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Honeywell International Inc. converts 66% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 22 | $219.11 | $4,820.42 |
| 2026-05-07 | 6 | $216.86 | $1,301.16 |
| 2026-04-27 | 2 | $213.17 | $426.34 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $219.97 | $439.94 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2 | $229.38 | $458.76 |
| 2026-04-15 | 7 | $233.24 | $1,632.68 |
| 2026-04-10 | 10 | $236.06 | $2,360.6 |
| 2026-04-07 | 100 | $228.21 | $22,821 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2 | $226.03 | $452.06 |
| 2026-03-30 | 7,815 | $223.12 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-26 | 12 | $225.79 | $2,709.48 |
| 2026-03-25 | 64 | $221.57 | $14,180.48 |
| 2026-03-20 | 4 | $229.03 | $916.12 |
| 2026-03-16 | 47 | $234.50 | $11,021.5 |
| 2026-03-12 | 101 | $239.44 | $24,183.44 |
| 2026-03-06 | 18,848 | $238.38 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-03 | 16 | $248.04 | $3,968.64 |
| 2026-02-26 | 300 | $242.20 | $72,660 |
| 2026-02-19 | 4 | $241.14 | $964.56 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1 | $242.65 | $242.65 |
| 2026-02-11 | 33,052 | $243.34 | $8.0M |
| 2026-02-06 | 78,292 | $233.85 | $18.3M |
| 2026-02-05 | 60,005 | $235.35 | $14.1M |
| 2026-02-04 | 344,070 | $230.91 | $79.4M |
| 2026-02-02 | 200 | $227.52 | $45,504 |
| 2026-01-29 | 9 | $216.64 | $1,949.76 |
| 2026-01-21 | 260,257 | $215.07 | $56.0M |
| 2026-01-20 | 745 | $219.39 | $163,445.55 |
| 2026-01-13 | 27,857 | $208.60 | $5.8M |
| 2026-01-12 | 200 | $207.38 | $41,476 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DOV | 0.611 | 0.604 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.600 | 0.585 | Moderate |
| WAB | 0.558 | 0.514 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.548 | 0.482 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.530 | 0.534 | Moderate |
| AME | 0.526 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| MMM | 0.525 | 0.485 | Moderate |
| EMR | 0.508 | 0.500 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.507 | 0.512 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare HON to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.