Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 20.9x earnings — a 40% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — KMI is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.3. DCF fair value of $10 implies 68% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company's capital allocation efficiency is currently compromised, as indicated by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -2.0%, suggesting that recent investments are not generating returns sufficient to cover the cost of capital despite robust revenue growth of 12.2% year-over-year. While equity creation remains supported by financial leverage with an equity multiplier of 2.24x, this masks underlying operational constraints; a net margin of 18.0% combined with low asset turnover of 0.23x yields a DuPont ROE of only 9.4%. Solvency and earnings quality metrics present conflicting signals: the Altman Z-Score of 1.4 flags elevated bankruptcy risk, whereas the strong Beneish M-Score of -2.51 and solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggest high-quality earnings with minimal manipulation risk.
Valuation multiples reflect significant divergence from intrinsic value models, as the current P/E of 24.1x stands in stark contrast to a DCF-derived fair value implying substantial downside potential. The market appears priced for an aggressive long-term free cash flow growth trajectory of 8.6% over ten years, yet valuation modeling suggests this expectation is not fully supported by current fundamentals given the negative spread between returns and capital costs. This disparity indicates that investor sentiment may be overly optimistic regarding future profitability expansion relative to the company's demonstrated ability to generate risk-adjusted value from its asset base.
Risk factor analysis reveals a complex profile where Fama-French alpha data shows an annualized outperformance of 14.03%, yet this is counterbalanced by specific style factor weaknesses and insider activity. The stock exhibits a distinct value tilt with an HML score of 0.600, but the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers at -0.211, highlighting structural challenges in maintaining high margins relative to peers. Furthermore, net insider selling totaling $1,380,587 over the last ninety days introduces a behavioral risk dimension that contradicts the positive alpha signal, suggesting management may be taking steps to reduce exposure despite recent stock performance.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.4% | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $13 | $7 | $1 |
| 3% | $21 | $10 | $3 |
| 4% | $36 | $16 | $5 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $31.44.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $10 (-67.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 57% above its 5-year average P/E of 15.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedKinder Morgan, Inc. is currently trading at $33.79 within the energy sector, presenting a snapshot where institutional positioning can be inferred through specific technical dynamics rather than explicit directives. The recent movement of Simple Moving Average crossovers often serves as a lagging indicator for larger market participants who may have already adjusted their allocations ahead of broader price shifts; if shorter-term averages are converging with longer-term trends, this could suggest that institutions are either consolidating existing holdings or cautiously testing the current valuation level without aggressive accumulation. Volume trends in conjunction with these moving average interactions frequently reveal whether large players are providing liquidity to support a trend or absorbing shares quietly during periods of relative stability. The price action surrounding the $33.79 mark, when viewed alongside volume profiles, offers clues about the balance between supply and demand from sophisticated investors. A divergence where price moves in one direction while volume diminishes might indicate that institutional interest is waning at these levels, whereas sustained volume during a breakout or breakdown could signal significant capital rotation into or out of the position. Traders monitoring such setups often watch for how support and resistance zones hold up against these heavier orders, as institutions tend to defend key psychological price points more vigorously than retail participants. Ultimately, the interplay between these technical metrics reflects the ongoing strategic positioning of major market entities rather than a definitive signal for immediate action by all investors.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | $0.2980 | +1.7% |
| 2026-02-02 | $0.2930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-03 | $0.2930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-31 | $0.2930 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-30 | $0.2930 | +1.7% |
| 2025-02-03 | $0.2880 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-31 | $0.2880 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-31 | $0.2880 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-29 | $0.2880 | +1.8% |
| 2024-01-30 | $0.2830 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-30 | $0.2830 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-28 | $0.2830 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or VDE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell KMI shares regardless of Kinder Morgan, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to KMI through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Kinder Morgan, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with KMI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
KMI Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 KMI shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 2.6% of the VDE (VDE). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 301M shares (13.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest KMI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
KMI Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Kinder Morgan, Inc. over the past year sits near $26.88 (20% of 252-day volume). The current price of $31.44 trades 17.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (20% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
KMI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Kinder Morgan, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Kinder Morgan, Inc. converts 40% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 60% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 1 | $32.45 | $32.45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 313 | $31.52 | $9,865.76 |
| 2026-05-04 | 8,601 | $32.53 | $279,790.53 |
| 2026-04-23 | 273 | $31.81 | $8,684.13 |
| 2026-04-20 | 147 | $32.02 | $4,706.94 |
| 2026-04-15 | 15 | $31.65 | $474.75 |
| 2026-04-14 | 87,372 | $32.07 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-13 | 110,903 | $32.68 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-10 | 22 | $32.97 | $725.34 |
| 2026-04-02 | 1,042 | $32.88 | $34,260.96 |
| 2026-03-30 | 37,776 | $34.03 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,498 | $34.07 | $51,036.86 |
| 2026-03-25 | 6,715 | $33.93 | $227,839.95 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2,515 | $33.71 | $84,780.65 |
| 2026-03-23 | 300 | $32.84 | $9,852 |
| 2026-03-20 | 6,537 | $33.44 | $218,597.28 |
| 2026-03-19 | 218 | $32.61 | $7,108.98 |
| 2026-03-17 | 253 | $33.31 | $8,427.43 |
| 2026-03-16 | 31 | $33.39 | $1,035.09 |
| 2026-03-13 | 49,803 | $33.36 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-12 | 39 | $33.08 | $1,290.12 |
| 2026-03-11 | 46 | $32.96 | $1,516.16 |
| 2026-03-10 | 24,102 | $33.30 | $802,596.6 |
| 2026-03-09 | 129 | $33.58 | $4,331.82 |
| 2026-03-06 | 273,394 | $33.39 | $9.1M |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,588 | $33.96 | $53,928.48 |
| 2026-02-27 | 11,940 | $33.06 | $394,736.4 |
| 2026-02-23 | 159 | $32.73 | $5,204.07 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1 | $32.54 | $32.54 |
| 2026-02-12 | 280 | $31.45 | $8,806 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WMB | 0.804 | 0.808 | High co-movement |
| OKE | 0.580 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| LNG | 0.579 | 0.462 | Moderate |
| TRGP | 0.537 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| EQT | 0.514 | 0.433 | Moderate |
| EXE | 0.458 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| AROC | 0.423 | 0.391 | Moderate |
| PEG | 0.421 | 0.296 | Moderate |
| CNP | 0.403 | 0.316 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare KMI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.