ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.0x earnings — a 57% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — OKE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.6. DCF fair value of $104 implies 21% upside from current prices based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.15 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company's capital allocation efficiency presents a nuanced picture where the ROIC-WACC spread of +0.1% indicates only marginal value creation relative to its cost of capital, despite a robust 15.0% DuPont ROE driven primarily by high leverage (Equity Multiplier 2.95x) rather than operational margin expansion or asset turnover efficiency. This structural reliance on debt is reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 1.6, signaling elevated financial distress risk that contrasts with a solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and benign Beneish M-Score of -2.15 suggesting low earnings manipulation concerns. While revenue growth remains explosive at 55% YoY underpinned by healthy gross margins of 26.0%, the narrow spread between returns on invested capital and the weighted average cost of capital suggests that current profitability is fragile against rising financing costs or margin compression, even as net margins hold steady at 10.1%.
Valuation metrics reflect significant market skepticism regarding sustainability, with a current P/E of 16.3x trading below both historical norms and sector averages while implying an aggressive long-term free cash flow growth rate of 10.6% to justify the DCF fair value of $92. The resulting negligible upside potential of merely 1.4% suggests that pricing already incorporates optimistic assumptions about future performance, leaving little room for error if growth decelerates or leverage pressures mount. Furthermore, a negative Fama-French Alpha of -3.70% annually indicates the stock has underperformed relative to its risk-adjusted benchmark over time, potentially due to the value factor tilt (HML 0.797) failing to compensate for the underlying profitability weakness indicated by an RMW score of -0.072.
Insider activity remains neutral with zero flow over the last ninety days, offering no clear directional signal from management regarding valuation concerns or opportunistic buying. The convergence of tight capital spread metrics and negative risk-adjusted returns creates a scenario where upside is capped while downside exposure to distress factors remains active, necessitating careful scrutiny of whether the low multiple adequately compensates for the high leverage and modest alpha generation observed in recent periods.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 55% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.7% | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $138 | $81 | $46 |
| 3% | $194 | $104 | $57 |
| 4% | $304 | $139 | $72 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $86.72.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $104 (+21.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 17% above its 5-year average P/E of 13.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | $1.0700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-02 | $1.0700 | +3.9% |
| 2025-11-03 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-01 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-05 | $1.0300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-03 | $1.0300 | +4.0% |
| 2024-11-01 | $0.9900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.9900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-30 | $0.9900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-29 | $0.9900 | +3.7% |
| 2023-10-31 | $0.9550 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-31 | $0.9550 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLE or SPHD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OKE shares regardless of ONEOK, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $10.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to OKE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ONEOK, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with OKE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OKE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 OKE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.2% of the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and 2.8% of the SPHD (SPHD). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 128M shares (20.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest OKE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OKE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for ONEOK, Inc. over the past year sits near $72.20 (12% of 252-day volume). The current price of $86.72 trades 20.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (12% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
OKE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ONEOK, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ONEOK, Inc. converts 31% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 69% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 953 | $88.79 | $84,616.87 |
| 2026-05-13 | 673 | $88.43 | $59,513.39 |
| 2026-05-07 | 24 | $85.60 | $2,054.4 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,252 | $90.63 | $113,468.76 |
| 2026-05-04 | 131 | $90.36 | $11,837.16 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,259 | $89.79 | $113,045.61 |
| 2026-04-28 | 7,411 | $87.75 | $650,315.25 |
| 2026-04-23 | 110,373 | $86.06 | $9.5M |
| 2026-04-21 | 3,958 | $83.78 | $331,601.24 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,264 | $83.51 | $272,576.64 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,015 | $85.21 | $171,698.15 |
| 2026-04-15 | 27,813 | $84.84 | $2.4M |
| 2026-04-14 | 143 | $85.33 | $12,202.19 |
| 2026-04-13 | 17,306 | $86.21 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-07 | 1,023 | $88.50 | $90,535.5 |
| 2026-04-01 | 19,636 | $90.39 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-26 | 37,564 | $92.12 | $3.5M |
| 2026-03-25 | 63 | $90.94 | $5,729.22 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,503 | $89.92 | $135,149.76 |
| 2026-03-23 | 5,627 | $89.21 | $501,984.67 |
| 2026-03-20 | 9,529 | $88.39 | $842,268.31 |
| 2026-03-18 | 5,514 | $86.56 | $477,291.84 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,142 | $85.96 | $356,046.32 |
| 2026-03-09 | 90,504 | $86.93 | $7.9M |
| 2026-03-05 | 4,606 | $84.76 | $390,404.56 |
| 2026-03-04 | 10,354 | $84.78 | $877,812.12 |
| 2026-03-03 | 606 | $86.12 | $52,188.72 |
| 2026-02-27 | 2,903 | $84.02 | $243,910.06 |
| 2026-02-26 | 10,735 | $82.28 | $883,275.8 |
| 2026-02-24 | 900 | $87.33 | $78,597 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TRGP | 0.730 | 0.669 | High co-movement |
| DVN | 0.632 | 0.639 | Moderate |
| FANG | 0.628 | 0.588 | Moderate |
| EOG | 0.608 | 0.607 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.607 | 0.570 | Moderate |
| CTRA | 0.596 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.585 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| KMI | 0.580 | 0.612 | Moderate |
| CVX | 0.572 | 0.567 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare OKE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.