Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 15.0x earnings — a 57% discount to the sector average of 34.8x — CTRA is in the lower valuation range. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.7. DCF fair value of $30 implies 11% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCoterra Energy Inc. presents a capital allocation profile where the ROIC-WACC spread of +1.9% indicates modest but positive value creation relative to its cost of equity, though this margin is narrow compared to high-growth peers. The DuPont decomposition reveals that an 11.6% return on equity is primarily driven by robust net margins at 22.5%, while asset turnover remains constrained at 0.32x and leverage sits low at a multiplier of 1.63x, suggesting the firm prioritizes balance sheet conservatism over financial engineering to boost returns. Qualitative risk indicators are mixed; a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals solid fundamental health and operational stability, yet an Altman Z-Score of 2.6 places the company in the "gray zone" between safety and distress, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.63 effectively rules out earnings manipulation concerns despite recent revenue growth accelerating to 40.1% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing CTRA at a significant discount relative to its sector peers, with a current P/E multiple of 15.4x versus an industry average of 31.4x. However, this apparent bargain may reflect specific growth skepticism embedded in the DCF model, which calculates a fair value only 3.9% above current levels based on an implied ten-year free cash flow contraction rate of -1.9%. This negative long-term growth assumption starkly contrasts with the recent top-line expansion and results in a Fama-French alpha of -11.08%, indicating that risk-adjusted performance has lagged over the measurement period, likely due to underperformance on profitability factors despite a clear value tilt captured by an HML score of 1.065.
The divergence between strong short-term margin expansion and negative long-term growth projections creates a tension in the risk-reward profile. While insider activity remains neutral with zero net flow over ninety days, the combination of weak profitability factor scores (-0.245) and deteriorating FCF assumptions suggests that current valuation discounts may be justified by structural headwinds rather than temporary cyclicality. Investors must weigh whether the substantial multiple compression relative to sector averages compensates for the market's expectation of stagnation in future cash flow generation, as indicated by the negative alpha and constrained growth inputs in the fair value calculation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 40% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $35 | $24 | $17 |
| 3% | $46 | $30 | $19 |
| 4% | $68 | $37 | $23 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $32.56.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $30 (-10.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% above its 5-year average P/E of 12.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCoterra Energy Inc. currently trades at $32.56 within the energy sector, presenting a technical snapshot where price action must be weighed against inherent market volatility typical of commodity-linked equities. The absence of specific moving average crossovers or oscillator readings in the provided data necessitates an analysis focused on structural resilience rather than immediate directional signals. In this context, any observed momentum appears contingent upon broader fundamental backdrops that often dictate risk premiums for energy producers, suggesting that short-term price movements may be more reactive to external shocks than indicative of a sustained internal trend shift. The relationship between current valuation levels and potential drawdown scenarios remains undefined without volatility metrics or historical support zones, yet the sector's cyclicality implies that price fluctuations could rapidly amplify during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. This environment creates a dynamic where apparent strength might be fragile if underpinned by narrow trading ranges rather than broad-based accumulation. Consequently, the technical setup reflects a state of equilibrium that is highly sensitive to fundamental inputs, urging caution in interpreting current levels as definitive turning points without corroborating volume or trend confirmation data.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.2200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-13 | $0.2200 | +4.8% |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-13 | $0.2100 | +5.0% |
| 2023-11-15 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-16 | $0.2000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-05-25 | $0.2000 | -64.9% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VDE or SCHD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CTRA shares regardless of Coterra Energy Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to CTRA through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Coterra Energy Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CTRA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CTRA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 4 CTRA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) exerts significant gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.1% of the VDE (VDE) and 0.8% of the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 211M shares (27.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This high passive lock-up reduces the effective active float, which can amplify daily price volatility and momentum signals.
ETFs with Highest CTRA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CTRA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Coterra Energy Inc. over the past year sits near $23.61 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $32.56 trades 37.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CTRA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Coterra Energy Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Coterra Energy Inc. converts 34% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 66% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 1.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 27,896,622 | $32.56 | $908.3M |
| 2026-05-01 | 220 | $35.91 | $7,900.2 |
| 2026-04-23 | 24 | $32.93 | $790.32 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,389 | $30.89 | $42,906.21 |
| 2026-04-15 | 10,549 | $31.67 | $334,086.83 |
| 2026-04-13 | 548 | $33.41 | $18,308.68 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,075 | $34.67 | $106,610.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 221,584 | $35.02 | $7.8M |
| 2026-03-23 | 54,973 | $33.97 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-11 | 200 | $30.41 | $6,082 |
| 2026-03-10 | 8,079 | $31.18 | $251,903.22 |
| 2026-03-06 | 37,035 | $31.15 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,500 | $31.28 | $46,920 |
| 2026-02-04 | 53,482 | $28.94 | $1.5M |
| 2026-02-03 | 539 | $27.81 | $14,989.59 |
| 2026-02-02 | 80 | $28.85 | $2,308 |
| 2026-01-30 | 12,592 | $28.06 | $353,331.52 |
| 2026-01-29 | 200 | $27.79 | $5,558 |
| 2026-01-28 | 278,038 | $27.52 | $7.7M |
| 2026-01-26 | 140,000 | $27.42 | $3.8M |
| 2026-01-23 | 140,000 | $27.28 | $3.8M |
| 2026-01-22 | 150,000 | $26.75 | $4.0M |
| 2026-01-21 | 100,000 | $26.22 | $2.6M |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,480 | $25.71 | $38,050.8 |
| 2026-01-16 | 3,898 | $25.73 | $100,295.54 |
| 2026-01-13 | 3,844 | $24.93 | $95,830.92 |
| 2025-12-29 | 200 | $25.79 | $5,158 |
| 2025-12-22 | 25,225 | $25.38 | $640,210.5 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2,000 | $25.30 | $50,600 |
| 2025-12-12 | 78,435 | $26.49 | $2.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EOG | 0.651 | 0.713 | Moderate |
| DVN | 0.651 | 0.705 | Moderate |
| FANG | 0.629 | 0.656 | Moderate |
| APA | 0.602 | 0.644 | Moderate |
| OKE | 0.596 | 0.598 | Moderate |
| COP | 0.592 | 0.599 | Moderate |
| OXY | 0.571 | 0.588 | Moderate |
| CVX | 0.554 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| XOM | 0.545 | 0.625 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CTRA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-05-07.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.