3M Company (MMM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 29.5x earnings — a 34% discount to the sector average of 44.7x — MMM is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.2. DCF fair value of $33 implies 78% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this Industrials leader present a distinct dichotomy between high capital efficiency and stagnant top-line expansion. The company generates an ROIC-WACC spread of +3.6%, indicating that deployed capital exceeds the cost of financing, yet revenue growth remains tepet at 1.5% year-over-year. This dynamic is reflected in the DuPont decomposition where a robust net margin of 13.0% and significant leverage (Equity Multiplier of 7.95x) drive an ROE of 68.5%, masking weak asset turnover of 0.66x relative to peers. While solvency appears secure with an Altman Z-Score of 4.2 and low earnings manipulation risk per the Beneish M-Score of -2.27, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength without recent upgrades in profitability or leverage metrics.
Valuation multiples currently trade at a discount to sector norms but imply aggressive future growth assumptions that may not align with current trajectory. The stock commands a P/E ratio of 24.1x, which is notably lower than the sector average of 32.1x, yet this compression conflicts sharply with DCF modeling suggesting fair value lies significantly below current levels and implying a -76.7% downside from present prices if realized growth assumptions hold. This discrepancy highlights that the market may be pricing in an implied ten-year free cash flow compound rate of 31.6%, a figure inconsistent with the observed near-flat revenue performance, creating a potential valuation overhang despite the attractive profitability factor alpha of 0.286.
Risk-adjusted returns appear constrained by negative momentum factors and insider activity that contradicts long-term value signals. Although the stock exhibits robust profitability characteristics under the Fama-French framework (RMW: 0.286), it has generated a significant annualized negative alpha of -13.82% relative to its factor benchmarks, suggesting poor risk-adjusted performance over the measured period. Furthermore, substantial net insider selling totaling $8.85 million over the last ninety days introduces counter-signals that may warrant caution when assessing future catalysts, even as value metrics like HML remain neutral at 0.078.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $41 | $30 | $23 |
| 3% | $47 | $33 | $25 |
| 4% | $57 | $38 | $27 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $152.90.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $33 (-78.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 40% below its 5-year average P/E of 41.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical profile for 3M Company reflects a price level of $150.32 within the Industrials sector, presenting a snapshot where market positioning must be weighed against inherent volatility risks. Without access to specific drawdown metrics or recent variance data, the structural integrity of any existing momentum remains indeterminate; it is unclear whether current price action represents a resilient trend built on fundamental strength or a fragile accumulation susceptible to sharp corrections if broader industrial sector headwinds emerge. The absence of explicit volatility figures prevents an assessment of how much risk capital might be at stake during potential swings, leaving the durability of the $150.32 mark open to interpretation based on unseen recent price history and trading volume patterns. In this context, any observed upward or downward pressure cannot definitively be classified as a long-term structural shift without corroborating data regarding asset quality or earnings stability. The fundamental backdrop for industrial firms often dictates whether technical levels hold firm under stress, yet the limited dataset here isolates only the current price point, obscuring the relationship between valuation and risk tolerance. Consequently, while the stock sits at $150.32, the lack of volatility context means that sudden market shifts could rapidly alter this status from a stable anchor to a volatile pivot point. Stakeholders must evaluate whether this specific price level aligns with their individual risk appetite, recognizing that technical setups without supporting fundamental or statistical depth may mask underlying fragility in the asset's trajectory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.7800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.7800 | +6.8% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-25 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.7300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.7300 | +4.3% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-26 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.7000 | -44.6% |
| 2024-02-15 | $1.2625 | +0.7% |
| 2023-11-16 | $1.2542 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-18 | $1.2542 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DIA or XLI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MMM shares regardless of 3M Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to MMM through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in 3M Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If 3M Company (MMM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CATERPILLAR INC (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MMM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MMM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 MMM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
3M Company (MMM) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.8% of the DIA (DIA) and 1.5% of the State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 67M shares (12.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MMM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MMM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for 3M Company over the past year sits near $151.45 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $152.90 trades 1.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MMM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does 3M Company convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
3M Company converts 22% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 78% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 3.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 4 | $143.34 | $573.36 |
| 2026-05-06 | 642 | $142.82 | $91,690.44 |
| 2026-05-04 | 968 | $142.50 | $137,940 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7,492 | $146.52 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-30 | 1,517 | $143.87 | $218,250.79 |
| 2026-04-29 | 2,198 | $146.03 | $320,973.94 |
| 2026-04-28 | 2,108 | $145.77 | $307,283.16 |
| 2026-04-24 | 17,124 | $144.84 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,674 | $145.78 | $389,815.72 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,659 | $150.55 | $400,312.45 |
| 2026-04-15 | 258 | $152.55 | $39,357.9 |
| 2026-04-13 | 230 | $150.32 | $34,573.6 |
| 2026-04-10 | 269 | $150.50 | $40,484.5 |
| 2026-04-07 | 3,312 | $144.50 | $478,584 |
| 2026-04-06 | 320 | $144.47 | $46,230.4 |
| 2026-03-25 | 53 | $146.67 | $7,773.51 |
| 2026-03-24 | 330 | $146.56 | $48,364.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $141.20 | $847.2 |
| 2026-03-12 | 81 | $155.17 | $12,568.77 |
| 2026-03-09 | 66 | $153.41 | $10,125.06 |
| 2026-02-13 | 474 | $174.61 | $82,765.14 |
| 2026-02-09 | 900 | $172.65 | $155,385 |
| 2026-02-06 | 304 | $165.08 | $50,184.32 |
| 2026-01-27 | 17 | $159.52 | $2,711.84 |
| 2026-01-21 | 130,568 | $156.12 | $20.4M |
| 2026-01-20 | 27,545 | $167.80 | $4.6M |
| 2026-01-05 | 3,947 | $161.82 | $638,703.54 |
| 2025-12-30 | 4,672 | $161.72 | $755,555.84 |
| 2025-12-22 | 782 | $161.96 | $126,652.72 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1,052 | $163.20 | $171,686.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.676 | 0.611 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.625 | 0.596 | Moderate |
| DOV | 0.625 | 0.534 | Moderate |
| SWK | 0.613 | 0.595 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.593 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.588 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| AVY | 0.565 | 0.490 | Moderate |
| IR | 0.563 | 0.482 | Moderate |
| OC | 0.552 | 0.528 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MMM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.