Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicMOH trades at 46.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 4.2. Beneish M-Score of -1.92 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Molina Healthcare reveal a capital allocation strategy that generates modest value creation, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of only 0.9%, indicating the firm earns just slightly above its cost of equity. This thin margin on invested capital is driven primarily by high financial leverage rather than operational efficiency or pricing power; while asset turnover remains robust at 2.92x, the net margin compresses to a mere 1.0%, resulting in an ROE of 11.6% that relies heavily on its equity multiplier of 3.83x. Credit and earnings quality metrics present a mixed picture: although the Altman Z-Score of 4.2 suggests a low probability of bankruptcy, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals moderate financial distress relative to peers, while the negative Beneish M-Score of -1.92 points toward clean earnings without obvious manipulation incentives.
Valuation dynamics show a significant discount relative to sector norms, with a current P/E of 16.4x trading well below the healthcare sector average of 37.0x. This compression likely reflects market skepticism regarding the company's ability to sustain growth given its low net margins and modest ROIC spread, rather than an intrinsic undervaluation supported by superior profitability factors. The stock appears priced for continued revenue expansion at 11.8% YoY, yet the Fama-French alpha of -64.34% indicates that over time, the security has underperformed relative to a standard market-cap weighted benchmark after adjusting for size and value characteristics.
Risk assessment highlights a divergence between insider sentiment and broad factor performance; despite a negative alpha driven by profitability (RMW: -0.037) and neutral value exposure (HML: 0.079), there is $25,786 in net insider buying over the last ninety days. This modest capital inflow from management may suggest confidence in near-term operational execution despite the broader statistical underperformance relative to factor models, creating a scenario where idiosyncratic catalysts could potentially decouple price action from historical risk premiums.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 39% below its 5-year average P/E of 26.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedMolina Healthcare, Inc. is currently trading at $145.88 within the healthcare sector, presenting a scenario where price action must be weighed against broader market volatility and fundamental stability. The current level sits as a critical juncture for assessing whether recent movements represent a sustainable structural shift or a fragile momentum dependent on immediate external support. In this environment, any significant deviation from this price point could rapidly alter the risk profile, particularly if underlying fundamentals fail to reinforce the technical stance observed at these levels. The interplay between the current valuation and sector-specific headwinds suggests that volatility may be elevated as market participants digest mixed signals regarding long-term viability versus short-term gains. Without corroborating fundamental data confirming a durable recovery or growth trajectory, the momentum displayed near $145.88 appears susceptible to sharp corrections should confidence wane. This setup implies a delicate balance where downside protection becomes paramount if the price struggles to maintain its position against potential sell pressure inherent in uncertain macroeconomic conditions for healthcare providers. Ultimately, the technical picture at this juncture highlights the necessity of monitoring how quickly capital flows adjust to any new information that could destabilize the current equilibrium. The absence of confirmed structural support means that while the asset remains active, it operates with a heightened sensitivity to market sentiment shifts. Stakeholders must carefully evaluate whether the resilience seen so far is rooted in solid operational performance or merely temporary liquidity dynamics before forming views on future trajectory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or IJS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MOH shares regardless of Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to MOH through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Molina Healthcare, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies HUMANA INC (HUM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with MOH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 22 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MOH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 MOH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.2% of the XHS (XHS) and 1.2% of the IJS (IJS). Across 21 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (13.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest MOH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MOH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Molina Healthcare, Inc. over the past year sits near $144.87 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $179.86 trades 24.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
MOH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Molina Healthcare, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Molina Healthcare, Inc. converts -65% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 165% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 1 | $185.19 | $185.19 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,456 | $174.70 | $254,363.2 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2 | $148.97 | $297.94 |
| 2026-04-16 | 96 | $146.80 | $14,092.8 |
| 2026-04-08 | 7,396 | $141.53 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-31 | 5 | $131.47 | $657.35 |
| 2026-03-24 | 11,675 | $135.24 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-23 | 3 | $139.41 | $418.23 |
| 2026-03-20 | 29,269 | $142.21 | $4.2M |
| 2026-03-05 | 54,537 | $150.04 | $8.2M |
| 2026-03-02 | 53 | $154.05 | $8,164.65 |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,529 | $145.55 | $222,545.95 |
| 2026-02-25 | 103,257 | $148.31 | $15.3M |
| 2026-02-18 | 22 | $135.68 | $2,984.96 |
| 2026-02-17 | 17 | $135.35 | $2,300.95 |
| 2026-02-04 | 72 | $181.40 | $13,060.8 |
| 2026-02-03 | 13,098 | $181.18 | $2.4M |
| 2026-01-22 | 286 | $194.60 | $55,655.6 |
| 2026-01-21 | 455 | $191.27 | $87,027.85 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,075 | $191.40 | $588,555 |
| 2026-01-05 | 16,946 | $178.46 | $3.0M |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,730 | $173.54 | $300,224.2 |
| 2025-12-22 | 6,800 | $163.69 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-19 | 123 | $162.72 | $20,014.56 |
| 2025-11-25 | 700 | $145.30 | $101,710 |
| 2025-11-10 | 3,358 | $152.06 | $510,617.48 |
| 2025-11-05 | 6,214 | $151.69 | $942,601.66 |
| 2025-11-04 | 1,442 | $147.03 | $212,017.26 |
| 2025-10-27 | 20 | $163.32 | $3,266.4 |
| 2025-10-24 | 84 | $161.00 | $13,524 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CNC | 0.672 | 0.493 | Moderate |
| ELV | 0.544 | 0.321 | Moderate |
| UNH | 0.356 | 0.283 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.351 | 0.326 | Moderate |
| CVS | 0.349 | 0.251 | Moderate |
| DVA | 0.343 | 0.281 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.332 | 0.234 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.323 | 0.286 | Moderate |
| MRSH | 0.306 | 0.254 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare MOH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.