UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 28.7x earnings — a 56% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — UNH is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.8. DCF fair value of $250 implies 20% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedUnitedHealth Group demonstrates a capital allocation profile where the ROIC-WACC spread of +1.0% indicates modest value creation relative to its cost of capital, suggesting that current returns barely outpace financing costs. This economic reality is reflected in the DuPont decomposition, which attributes an 11.8% ROE primarily to significant financial leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.04x) rather than operational efficiency or pricing power, given the narrow net margin of 2.7%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 signals generally stable fundamentals and a Beneish M-Score of -2.42 points to low earnings manipulation risk, the Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places the firm in the "gray zone," warranting close monitoring of solvency margins amidst its high leverage structure.
Valuation metrics present a dichotomy between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 21.0x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 30.8x, potentially reflecting market skepticism regarding growth sustainability rather than fundamental inferiority. However, this valuation gap is supported by a DCF model implying fair value upside of only 11.2%, driven by an implied free cash flow growth rate over the next decade that contracts at -2.5%. This negative long-term FCF growth assumption suggests the market has priced in significant headwinds or structural constraints on reinvestment returns, creating a scenario where the low multiple may accurately reflect limited future expansion potential rather than undervaluation.
Risk factor analysis reveals concerning divergence between profitability and alpha generation. The stock exhibits weak profitability characteristics with a Profitability Factor (RMW) of -0.726 and has generated negative Fama-French Alpha annually at -50.60%, indicating underperformance relative to risk-adjusted benchmarks over the measurement period. Although insider flow remains neutral over the last 90 days, the combination of weak profitability signals and persistent negative alpha suggests that recent performance may not align with broader value factor expectations for high-margin healthcare equities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 12% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.2% | 9.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $273 | $202 | $133 |
| 3% | $364 | $250 | $155 |
| 4% | $545 | $330 | $185 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $377.92.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $250 (-20.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 30% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedUnitedHealth Group's stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating it has been under pressure recently. The RSI reading of 45.1 suggests that the stock’s momentum is neutral to slightly bearish at this point in time.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | $2.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-08 | $2.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $2.2100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-16 | $2.2100 | +5.2% |
| 2025-03-10 | $2.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-09 | $2.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-16 | $2.1000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-17 | $2.1000 | +11.7% |
| 2024-03-08 | $1.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-01 | $1.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-08 | $1.8800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-15 | $1.8800 | +13.9% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -2,093,400 | -22.2% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -417,200 | -33.0% | Decreased |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | -69,760 | -16.6% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +8,202 | +14.4% | Increased |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | -110,000 | -55.0% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +361,678 | +45.4% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -6,170 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -54,200 | -80.7% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | -71,211 | -5.3% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -138,400 | -47.3% | Decreased |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2026-Q1 | -3,084,664 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | +42,924 | +5.7% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLV or IYH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell UNH shares regardless of UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $42.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to UNH through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in UnitedHealth Group Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with UNH. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
UNH Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 UNH shares, reducing daily market volatility.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.5% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) and 6.2% of the IYH (IYH). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 120M shares (13.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest UNH Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
UNH Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for UnitedHealth Group Incorporated over the past year sits near $295.17 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $377.92 trades 28.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
UNH Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does UnitedHealth Group Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated converts 70% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 12,827 | $379.98 | $4.9M |
| 2026-05-05 | 11,484 | $370.75 | $4.3M |
| 2026-05-04 | 6,673 | $368.78 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-30 | 306 | $370.74 | $113,446.44 |
| 2026-04-28 | 585 | $354.69 | $207,493.65 |
| 2026-04-27 | 8,400 | $354.92 | $3.0M |
| 2026-04-24 | 818 | $354.56 | $290,030.08 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,137 | $346.01 | $393,413.37 |
| 2026-04-20 | 45,764 | $324.63 | $14.9M |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $314.19 | $1,885.14 |
| 2026-04-14 | 418 | $313.00 | $130,834 |
| 2026-04-13 | 27,426 | $304.33 | $8.3M |
| 2026-04-10 | 12,710 | $306.91 | $3.9M |
| 2026-04-09 | 6,531 | $305.98 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-08 | 26,814 | $307.73 | $8.3M |
| 2026-04-07 | 414 | $281.36 | $116,483.04 |
| 2026-04-06 | 30,096 | $277.26 | $8.3M |
| 2026-04-02 | 1 | $273.98 | $273.98 |
| 2026-03-30 | 20,842 | $259.02 | $5.4M |
| 2026-03-26 | 3,386 | $270.55 | $916,082.3 |
| 2026-03-25 | 59 | $272.28 | $16,064.52 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2,002 | $269.54 | $539,619.08 |
| 2026-03-23 | 229 | $275.59 | $63,110.11 |
| 2026-03-13 | 12 | $277.05 | $3,324.6 |
| 2026-03-10 | 13 | $285.17 | $3,707.21 |
| 2026-03-09 | 9,300 | $286.48 | $2.7M |
| 2026-03-06 | 400 | $288.77 | $115,508 |
| 2026-03-03 | 628 | $294.93 | $185,216.04 |
| 2026-03-02 | 9,700 | $293.27 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-25 | 171,573 | $273.95 | $47.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 7,331,600 | $1,983,857,644K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 1,279,900 | $346,328,141K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 1,158,428 | $313,459,071K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 848,200 | $229,514,438K |
| Tiger Global | 2026-Q1 | 350,445 | $94,826,913K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 154,300 | $41,752,037K |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | 90,000 | $24,353,100K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 64,993 | $17,586,456K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 13,000 | $3,517,670K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 9,425,000 | $3,111,286,750K |
| Berkshire Hathaway | 2025-Q4 | 3,084,664 | $1,018,278,433K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 1,351,111 | $446,015,252K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 1,265,400 | $417,721,194K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 796,750 | $263,015,143K |
| Tiger Global | 2025-Q4 | 420,205 | $138,713,873K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CVS | 0.569 | 0.723 | Moderate |
| ELV | 0.569 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.565 | 0.706 | Moderate |
| CNC | 0.397 | 0.422 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.362 | 0.342 | Moderate |
| MOH | 0.356 | 0.283 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.297 | 0.249 | Low correlation |
| BRO | 0.285 | 0.329 | Low correlation |
| MRSH | 0.275 | 0.207 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare UNH to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.