Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 16.7x earnings — a 74% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — ELV is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.8. DCF fair value of $176 implies 44% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of ELV present a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -1.3%, indicating the firm currently destroys value relative to its cost of equity despite generating revenue growth of 12.6% year-over-year. This performance is driven primarily by high financial leverage rather than operational efficiency or pricing power; the DuPont decomposition reveals that a 2.76x equity multiplier sustains an ROE of 12.9%, masking weak net margins of just 2.8%. While asset turnover at 1.64x suggests efficient use of assets to generate sales, the low Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a precarious Altman Z-Score of 2.8 signal deteriorating financial health or limited balance sheet resilience compared to historical norms.
Valuation metrics reflect significant skepticism regarding future cash flow generation potential. Trading at a P/E multiple of 11.9x, the stock appears discounted relative to growth peers yet trades below its DCF-derived fair value of $189, which implies an extremely conservative long-term free cash flow expansion rate of only 2.2% over the next decade and currently prices in -35.5% downside risk from model assumptions. The market's pricing mechanism seems to heavily discount the company's ability to sustain profitability given its reliance on leverage rather than organic margin expansion or superior asset productivity.
Risk-adjusted performance data further complicates the investment thesis, with a Fama-French alpha of -16.31% annually suggesting consistent underperformance after adjusting for market and size factors. Although the stock exhibits a 0.235 tilt toward value characteristics (HML factor), this is counterbalanced by neutral profitability momentum (RMW factor) and recent insider activity showing $48,559 in net selling over the last ninety days. Collectively, these indicators paint a picture of a leveraged entity trading at a discount that may offer downside protection but lacks the fundamental drivers typically associated with robust long-term alpha generation.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 13% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.7% | 8.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $168 | $127 | $63 |
| 3% | $241 | $176 | $83 |
| 4% | $388 | $259 | $113 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $389.03.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $176 (-44.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 27% below its 5-year average P/E of 16.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedElevance Health's current positioning at $402.27 presents a complex risk dynamic where the substantial price level acts as both a testament to sector strength and a potential vulnerability point for drawdowns. In the healthcare sector, such elevated valuations often correlate with higher beta behavior during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, meaning that any adverse fundamental shifts could trigger disproportionately sharp volatility compared to broader market indices. The absence of immediate downside buffers at this price tier suggests that momentum may be fragile rather than structural; while recent performance has been robust, the lack of visible support zones implies that a single negative catalyst regarding regulatory changes or reimbursement rates could rapidly erode gains. This setup indicates that the current upward trajectory relies heavily on continued favorable fundamental backdrops without significant technical cushioning against corrections. As volatility typically expands when prices detach from historical mean reversion levels, investors must weigh whether the drive to $402.27 is supported by enduring operational improvements or merely speculative positioning. The interplay between high absolute pricing and inherent sector sensitivity creates an environment where risk dynamics shift quickly based on external triggers rather than internal price action alone. Ultimately, the technical picture reflects a state of heightened exposure where maintaining current levels requires continuous validation from both fundamental earnings reports and broader market sentiment to prevent potential mean reversion or sharp corrections driven by volatility spikes.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | $1.7200 | +0.6% |
| 2025-12-05 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-10 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-10 | $1.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | $1.7100 | +4.9% |
| 2024-12-05 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-10 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-10 | $1.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-07 | $1.6300 | +10.1% |
| 2023-12-05 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-07 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-08 | $1.4800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ELV shares regardless of Elevance Health, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.7B of passive capital is structurally linked to ELV through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Elevance Health, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ELV. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ELV Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 ELV shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Elevance Health, Inc. (ELV) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the XHS (XHS) and 1.6% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 27M shares (12.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ELV Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ELV Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Elevance Health, Inc. over the past year sits near $342.05 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $389.03 trades 13.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ELV Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Elevance Health, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Elevance Health, Inc. converts 33% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 67% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 76 | $399.64 | $30,372.64 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $313.35 | $940.05 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1 | $302.61 | $302.61 |
| 2026-04-06 | 101 | $300.74 | $30,374.74 |
| 2026-04-01 | 127 | $292.75 | $37,179.25 |
| 2026-03-31 | 384 | $284.79 | $109,359.36 |
| 2026-03-26 | 12,713 | $296.09 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-25 | 31 | $290.33 | $9,000.23 |
| 2026-03-19 | 24 | $294.95 | $7,078.8 |
| 2026-03-10 | 135 | $280.74 | $37,899.9 |
| 2026-03-09 | 67,056 | $289.64 | $19.4M |
| 2026-03-02 | 21 | $320.00 | $6,720 |
| 2026-02-17 | 2,366 | $346.80 | $820,528.8 |
| 2026-02-12 | 633 | $330.25 | $209,048.25 |
| 2026-02-10 | 116,053 | $327.50 | $38.0M |
| 2026-02-06 | 156 | $332.25 | $51,831 |
| 2026-02-02 | 12 | $345.74 | $4,148.88 |
| 2026-01-28 | 480 | $322.92 | $155,001.6 |
| 2026-01-20 | 2,856 | $374.87 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-16 | 40 | $381.93 | $15,277.2 |
| 2026-01-12 | 5 | $372.83 | $1,864.15 |
| 2026-01-09 | 2 | $374.77 | $749.54 |
| 2026-01-08 | 22 | $366.69 | $8,067.18 |
| 2026-01-07 | 17 | $371.37 | $6,313.29 |
| 2026-01-06 | 3 | $363.51 | $1,090.53 |
| 2026-01-05 | 52 | $354.25 | $18,421 |
| 2025-12-22 | 7,728 | $340.69 | $2.6M |
| 2025-12-19 | 541 | $344.60 | $186,428.6 |
| 2025-12-18 | 276 | $345.96 | $95,484.96 |
| 2025-12-12 | 171 | $360.22 | $61,597.62 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| CNC | 0.593 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| UNH | 0.569 | 0.714 | Moderate |
| CVS | 0.556 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| MOH | 0.544 | 0.321 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.530 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.449 | 0.386 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.333 | 0.310 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.324 | 0.272 | Moderate |
| BAX | 0.316 | 0.306 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ELV to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.