Centene Corporation (CNC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9. DCF fair value of $149 implies 298% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this healthcare entity reveal a severe capital allocation challenge, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -17.8% that indicates value destruction rather than creation. The DuPont decomposition underscores this distress: while asset turnover remains robust at 2.54x and leverage sits high at 3.83x, these operational drivers cannot offset a net margin contraction to -3.4%, resulting in an ROE of -33.3%. Quality screening metrics further highlight structural fragility; the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signals deteriorating financial health, and while the Beneish M-Score of -3.06 suggests earnings manipulation is unlikely, the Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places the firm in a zone approaching distress thresholds.
Valuation metrics present a stark dichotomy between historical performance and theoretical DCF models. The current multiple trades at a significant discount relative to the sector average P/E of 36.8x, yet this compression aligns with an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of -20.0% embedded in the valuation framework. While the DCF model projects a fair value implying substantial upside potential based on specific long-term assumptions, such a wide gap often reflects market pricing in persistent profitability issues rather than transient shocks. The weak profitability factor score of -0.307 reinforces that current earnings power is insufficient to justify traditional growth premiums, even if revenue expansion remains strong at 19.4% year-over-year.
Risk-adjusted return profiles derived from Fama-French factors indicate a challenging risk/reward asymmetry. Despite exhibiting a positive value tilt with an HML factor of 0.250, the annualized alpha of -19.70% suggests consistent underperformance relative to its size and book-to-market peers over time. With insider activity remaining neutral at zero flow over the past ninety days, there is no clear signal from management regarding future capital deployment or strategic shifts intended to address the underlying margin compression. Investors must weigh the theoretical DCF upside against the empirical evidence of negative alpha generation and a deteriorating Piotroski score before drawing conclusions on long-term viability.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.3% | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $128 | $120 | $83 |
| 3% | $164 | $149 | $95 |
| 4% | $234 | $205 | $112 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $59.99.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $149 (+298.3%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCentene Corporation is currently trading at $58.23 within the healthcare sector, presenting a snapshot of its immediate market positioning without explicit directional guidance regarding future price movements. To assess momentum and trend integrity, one would typically compare this current level against key moving averages to determine if recent pricing action aligns with longer-term trajectories or signals a potential divergence. The Relative Strength Index serves as a critical gauge for short-term velocity; while specific RSI values are not provided in the available data, any reading above 70 often suggests overbought conditions where selling pressure might emerge, whereas readings below 30 could indicate oversold territory ripe for a rebound. Observing whether the stock price maintains its position relative to these dynamic averages helps clarify if the current trend has structural support or is facing resistance. In this technical context, the interplay between the $58.23 mark and established moving average lines reveals the prevailing market sentiment without dictating specific actions for market participants. If the price hovers above these benchmarks, it generally reflects sustained bullish momentum driven by recent buying interest, while a position below them might signal weakening demand or a corrective phase following prior gains. The absence of concrete RSI data prevents a definitive conclusion on short-term exhaustion or accumulation, leaving analysts to infer potential inflection points based solely on the price level relative to historical norms. Ultimately, this setup highlights the importance of monitoring how Centene's valuation evolves against its own moving averages and momentum indicators to identify shifts in market
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CNC shares regardless of Centene Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to CNC through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Centene Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Centene Corporation (CNC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CNC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CNC Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 7 CNC shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Centene Corporation (CNC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.9% of the XHS (XHS) and 0.5% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 72M shares (14.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CNC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CNC Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Centene Corporation over the past year sits near $35.25 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $59.99 trades 70.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 100 | $55.96 | $5,596 |
| 2026-05-04 | 4,428 | $53.34 | $236,189.52 |
| 2026-05-01 | 159,211 | $53.69 | $8.5M |
| 2026-04-27 | 99 | $41.82 | $4,140.18 |
| 2026-04-20 | 299 | $38.17 | $11,412.83 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $37.26 | $223.56 |
| 2026-04-09 | 7,005 | $37.28 | $261,146.4 |
| 2026-04-08 | 10 | $36.31 | $363.1 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,000 | $35.11 | $35,110 |
| 2026-04-01 | 41 | $32.74 | $1,342.34 |
| 2026-03-25 | 13 | $32.98 | $428.74 |
| 2026-03-23 | 260 | $34.40 | $8,944 |
| 2026-03-20 | 41 | $35.57 | $1,458.37 |
| 2026-03-19 | 100 | $36.16 | $3,616 |
| 2026-03-18 | 12 | $34.94 | $419.28 |
| 2026-03-12 | 372 | $35.86 | $13,339.92 |
| 2026-03-09 | 873,127 | $43.65 | $38.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 334,921 | $43.24 | $14.5M |
| 2026-02-20 | 503 | $43.68 | $21,971.04 |
| 2026-02-19 | 5,050 | $43.07 | $217,503.5 |
| 2026-02-13 | 446 | $39.18 | $17,474.28 |
| 2026-02-12 | 3,293 | $40.43 | $133,135.99 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2,659 | $39.61 | $105,322.99 |
| 2026-02-10 | 43,442 | $38.04 | $1.7M |
| 2026-02-09 | 180 | $38.46 | $6,922.8 |
| 2026-02-06 | 11,607 | $39.92 | $463,351.44 |
| 2026-02-05 | 134 | $40.96 | $5,488.64 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,395 | $42.51 | $101,811.45 |
| 2026-02-03 | 347 | $42.80 | $14,851.6 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2,041 | $41.53 | $84,762.73 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MOH | 0.672 | 0.493 | Moderate |
| ELV | 0.593 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| CVS | 0.419 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| UNH | 0.397 | 0.422 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.364 | 0.436 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.362 | 0.334 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.320 | 0.357 | Moderate |
| MRSH | 0.306 | 0.300 | Moderate |
| AON | 0.302 | 0.278 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CNC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.