CVS Health Corporation (CVS)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 39.9x earnings — a 39% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — CVS is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $59 implies 24% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this healthcare entity reveal a significant capital allocation challenge, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.8%, indicating that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital. This negative spread persists despite robust revenue growth of 7.8% year-over-year and a strong Beneish M-Score of -2.58 suggesting low earnings manipulation risk, as the DuPont decomposition shows ROE is driven almost entirely by high leverage (Equity Multiplier at 3.36x) rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion; in fact, net margins are compressed to just 0.4%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 signals moderate financial strength and the Altman Z-Score of 2.3 indicates a reasonable safety buffer against bankruptcy, the reliance on leverage masks underlying profitability weakness, evidenced by a Profitability Factor (RMW) delta of -0.304.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 52.9x, substantially exceeding the sector average of 30.8x, which implies investor expectations for growth that are not currently supported by cash flow dynamics where implied free cash flow growth is negative (-0.5% over ten years). A DCF analysis places fair value at $64, suggesting an upside premium of -11.2%, meaning the current market price assumes a performance trajectory inconsistent with the company's weak profitability drivers and negative capital returns. The Value Factor (HML) delta of 0.475 suggests the stock possesses characteristics typically associated with undervalued firms, yet this is contradicted by its aggressive multiple expansion relative to peers.
Risk-reward asymmetry appears skewed toward downside potential given the disconnect between high valuation multiples and deteriorating capital efficiency metrics. Although Fama-French Alpha data shows an annualized figure of 13.56%, which might suggest superior risk-adjusted returns in a specific factor model context, this must be weighed against the structural headwinds of negative ROIC spread and negligible insider activity over the last ninety days. The combination of weak profitability factors and a valuation premium that ignores the drag on shareholder value from capital destruction creates an environment where the market may be pricing in future operational turnaround rather than current fundamental realities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 8% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 6.5% | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $51 | $42 | $21 |
| 3% | $74 | $59 | $28 |
| 4% | $118 | $89 | $38 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $89.50.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=6.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $59 (-24.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 22% below its 5-year average P/E of 73.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCVS Health Corporation currently trades at $93.28 within the healthcare sector, presenting a technical snapshot that requires careful assessment of its risk profile relative to market conditions. The absence of explicit drawdown metrics or volatility figures in the provided data limits a granular analysis of recent price stability, yet the current valuation level sits against a backdrop where fundamental pressures often drive structural shifts rather than transient momentum spikes. Without specific indicators confirming strong support levels or narrowing trading ranges, the prevailing technical posture suggests that any upward movement may be susceptible to underlying sector headwinds typical in healthcare services and pharmacy operations. The interplay between price action and market sentiment here appears fragile if viewed through a lens of potential downside risk, as the stock lacks immediate context regarding recent peak-to-trough declines or volatility compression. In an environment where fundamental backdrops frequently dictate long-term trajectories over short-term technical patterns, the current setup does not definitively signal robust structural strength capable of withstanding adverse news flows. Consequently, the observed price point reflects a state of equilibrium that could easily shift if broader economic factors or sector-specific regulations introduce new variables, leaving the sustainability of recent trends open to interpretation based on evolving market dynamics rather than confirmed technical dominance.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-22 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-22 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-23 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-21 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-22 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-19 | $0.6650 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-19 | $0.6650 | +9.9% |
| 2023-10-19 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-20 | $0.6050 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYK or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CVS shares regardless of CVS Health Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $12.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to CVS through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in CVS Health Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If CVS Health Corporation (CVS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with CVS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CVS Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 CVS shares, reducing daily market volatility.
CVS Health Corporation (CVS) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.3% of the IYK (IYK) and 2.2% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 157M shares (12.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CVS Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CVS Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for CVS Health Corporation over the past year sits near $76.97 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $89.50 trades 16.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CVS Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does CVS Health Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
CVS Health Corporation converts 79% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 2,300 | $90.55 | $208,265 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,381 | $87.36 | $120,644.16 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,451 | $82.09 | $119,112.59 |
| 2026-04-27 | 3,800 | $77.94 | $296,172 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4,200 | $77.30 | $324,660 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $77.62 | $698.58 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2,623 | $78.09 | $204,830.07 |
| 2026-04-13 | 399 | $79.33 | $31,652.67 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1 | $78.79 | $78.79 |
| 2026-04-08 | 697 | $78.22 | $54,519.34 |
| 2026-04-06 | 49,261 | $73.49 | $3.6M |
| 2026-03-31 | 17 | $70.14 | $1,192.38 |
| 2026-03-25 | 128 | $72.80 | $9,318.4 |
| 2026-03-24 | 220 | $71.29 | $15,683.8 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $71.48 | $428.88 |
| 2026-03-13 | 37,394 | $76.07 | $2.8M |
| 2026-03-06 | 56,851 | $78.69 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-02 | 16 | $79.90 | $1,278.4 |
| 2026-02-27 | 403 | $78.01 | $31,438.03 |
| 2026-02-24 | 365 | $77.00 | $28,105 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2,115 | $76.69 | $162,199.35 |
| 2026-02-18 | 5,558 | $78.20 | $434,635.6 |
| 2026-02-11 | 138 | $75.70 | $10,446.6 |
| 2026-02-02 | 2,729 | $74.52 | $203,365.08 |
| 2026-01-26 | 1,687 | $83.01 | $140,037.87 |
| 2026-01-23 | 5,458 | $82.68 | $451,267.44 |
| 2026-01-22 | 8,313 | $81.49 | $677,426.37 |
| 2026-01-20 | 600 | $78.60 | $47,160 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,146 | $81.36 | $93,238.56 |
| 2026-01-15 | 1,176 | $79.33 | $93,292.08 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| UNH | 0.569 | 0.723 | Moderate |
| ELV | 0.556 | 0.582 | Moderate |
| HUM | 0.496 | 0.550 | Moderate |
| CI | 0.479 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| CNC | 0.419 | 0.406 | Moderate |
| MOH | 0.349 | 0.251 | Moderate |
| MMC | 0.290 | 0.234 | Low correlation |
| DVA | 0.255 | 0.232 | Low correlation |
| T | 0.254 | 0.206 | Low correlation |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CVS to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.