DaVita Inc. (DVA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 22.5x earnings — a 70% discount to the sector average of 75.1x — DVA is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.7. DCF fair value of $532 implies 125% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedDaVita Inc. demonstrates a distinct capital allocation profile characterized by high financial leverage rather than operational efficiency, evidenced by an equity multiplier of 15.09x driving a 64.5% ROE despite modest net margins and asset turnover. While the company generates value through a positive 3.3% spread between its return on invested capital (10.6%) and cost of capital (7.3%), indicating efficient use of deployed assets, this advantage is counterbalanced by significant distress signals; an Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places the firm in the "gray zone" near insolvency risk, suggesting that leverage may be overstating returns relative to underlying asset quality. The Beneish M-Score of -2.67 offers some reassurance regarding earnings manipulation risks, yet a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects moderate fundamental stability without recent transformative improvements in profitability or financial health.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and discounted cash flow models, with the current P/E ratio of 15.8x trading at roughly half the sector average of 37.0x. This deep discount aligns with DCF fair value calculations implying nearly 294.8% upside potential relative to current levels, driven by an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate that currently stands negative at -2.6%. The market appears to be pricing in persistent headwinds rather than the robust profitability factor (RMW) score of 0.260 or the value tilt indicated by a high HML factor of 0.569, resulting in significant mean reversion potential if growth assumptions normalize.
Risk assessment reveals conflicting signals regarding future performance and ownership confidence. The Fama-French Alpha of -6.11% annually indicates underperformance relative to size and book-to-market factors over the measured period, while insider activity shows substantial net selling totaling approximately $200 million in the last 90 days. These data points suggest that sophisticated capital is currently exiting positions despite the attractive valuation spread, potentially signaling concerns about the sustainability of the negative growth trajectory or broader sector headwinds not captured by static leverage metrics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 6% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $692 | $431 | $278 |
| 3% | $938 | $532 | $327 |
| 4% | $1431 | $688 | $393 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $236.97.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $532 (+124.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 30% above its 5-year average P/E of 17.3x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDaVita Inc. is currently trading at $194.61, presenting a specific technical configuration that requires careful observation of its relationship with key moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction. Without explicit data on whether this price sits above or below these critical benchmarks, it remains unclear if the asset is in an established uptrend supported by higher lows or potentially facing resistance typical of a downtrend where prices hover beneath their average trajectory. The position relative to these smoothed historical values serves as the primary indicator for identifying the medium-term momentum and potential support levels that traders often monitor during market fluctuations. Complementing this positional analysis, the Relative Strength Index offers insight into short-term velocity without providing definitive directional mandates on its own in isolation. While specific RSI readings are not provided here, such a metric typically oscillates between 0 and 100 to gauge whether an asset is approaching overbought or oversold conditions relative to recent price action. In the absence of concrete figures indicating extreme values near these thresholds, the immediate short-term momentum appears neutral pending further data points that could signal exhaustion in current moves or the onset of a new directional shift based on recent trading activity patterns within the healthcare sector.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHS or ONEO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DVA shares regardless of DaVita Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $823M of passive capital is structurally linked to DVA through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on DVA's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in DaVita Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If DaVita Inc. (DVA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DVA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 20 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DVA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 14 DVA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
DaVita Inc. (DVA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the XHS (XHS) and 0.2% of the ONEO (ONEO). Across 20 tracked ETFs, approximately 5M shares (7.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest DVA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 20 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DVA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for DaVita Inc. over the past year sits near $118.33 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $236.97 trades 100.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DVA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does DaVita Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
DaVita Inc. converts 50% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 50% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 154 | $197.10 | $30,353.4 |
| 2026-05-21 | 54 | $196.87 | $10,630.98 |
| 2026-05-14 | 6,120 | $198.10 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,415 | $193.88 | $274,340.2 |
| 2026-05-06 | 204 | $157.04 | $32,036.16 |
| 2026-05-05 | 8 | $154.08 | $1,232.64 |
| 2026-04-23 | 9 | $152.42 | $1,371.78 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,383 | $144.57 | $199,940.31 |
| 2026-04-10 | 4,475 | $150.68 | $674,293 |
| 2026-04-01 | 4,391 | $153.69 | $674,852.79 |
| 2026-03-31 | 12 | $152.37 | $1,828.44 |
| 2026-03-26 | 4,895 | $155.11 | $759,263.45 |
| 2026-03-25 | 4 | $153.28 | $613.12 |
| 2026-03-18 | 3 | $149.98 | $449.94 |
| 2026-03-13 | 5,183 | $153.06 | $793,309.98 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,806 | $153.98 | $278,087.88 |
| 2026-02-12 | 443 | $144.27 | $63,911.61 |
| 2026-02-11 | 49,779 | $139.28 | $6.9M |
| 2026-02-09 | 10,207 | $140.83 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-05 | 17,951 | $142.06 | $2.6M |
| 2026-01-21 | 56,584 | $103.93 | $5.9M |
| 2026-01-16 | 7,413 | $105.84 | $784,591.92 |
| 2026-01-12 | 20 | $111.45 | $2,229 |
| 2025-12-22 | 14,709 | $115.20 | $1.7M |
| 2025-12-18 | 1,477 | $118.42 | $174,906.34 |
| 2025-12-17 | 2,860 | $117.94 | $337,308.4 |
| 2025-12-16 | 60,494 | $120.05 | $7.3M |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,106 | $120.33 | $133,084.98 |
| 2025-12-11 | 287 | $118.68 | $34,061.16 |
| 2025-12-10 | 896 | $116.67 | $104,536.32 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| IFF | 0.484 | 0.489 | Moderate |
| BALL | 0.449 | 0.455 | Moderate |
| ITW | 0.384 | 0.417 | Moderate |
| DOC | 0.374 | 0.381 | Moderate |
| WBS | 0.357 | 0.423 | Moderate |
| PPG | 0.347 | 0.319 | Moderate |
| CSL | 0.341 | 0.326 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DVA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.