Sysco Corporation (SYY)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 21.1x earnings — a 35% discount to the sector average of 32.6x — SYY is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 5.0. DCF fair value of $74 suggests 1% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Sysco Corporation exhibit a robust capital allocation profile, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of 6.8%, indicating the firm generates returns significantly exceeding its cost of capital. This value creation is driven primarily by high financial leverage rather than operational efficiency; while net margins are compressed at 2.2% and revenue growth remains modest at 3.2%, the DuPont decomposition reveals an equity multiplier of 14.42x, which amplifies returns despite low margin expansion potential. Credit risk appears contained with an Altman Z-Score of 5.2 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.59 suggesting earnings are not manipulated, while a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects generally strong financial health, though the heavy reliance on leverage necessitates monitoring balance sheet sensitivity during rate volatility cycles.
Valuation metrics present a compelling divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 19.2x trades at a substantial discount to the sector average of 31.2x, suggesting the market may be underweighting the company's stability relative to peers in the consumer defensive space. A DCF analysis implies fair value at $80 with an upside potential of 12.4%, anchored by assumptions regarding future free cash flow growth rates. This valuation gap appears supported by factor data showing a positive Value Factor tilt (HML: 0.390) and robust profitability characteristics (RMW: 0.167), yet the stock's performance has historically outperformed standard market benchmarks with an annual Fama-French alpha of 9.94%.
Despite attractive valuation premiums relative to sector peers, insider activity over the last ninety days shows $686,136 in net selling, introducing a counterweight to the quantitative bullish signals derived from fundamental spreads and factor loads. The convergence of high leverage driving ROE, moderate organic growth, and significant insider disposition requires investors to weigh whether current pricing adequately compensates for potential balance sheet risks versus the security's proven ability to generate alpha above risk-adjusted benchmarks.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 3% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $96 | $60 | $40 |
| 3% | $130 | $74 | $47 |
| 4% | $196 | $94 | $55 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $74.10.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $74 (+0.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 34% below its 5-year average P/E of 29.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of Sysco Corporation (SYY) is above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a potential uptrend in the near to medium term. With an RSI reading of 45, which falls below the neutral midpoint of 50, this suggests that SYY may currently be experiencing reduced buying pressure or approaching a consolidation phase within its trend cycle.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.5400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.5400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.5400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.5400 | +5.9% |
| 2025-04-04 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.5100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.5100 | +2.0% |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.5000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-06 | $0.5000 | +2.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLP or NOBL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SYY shares regardless of Sysco Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $6.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to SYY through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Sysco Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Sysco Corporation (SYY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Walmart Inc. (WMT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SYY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 35 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SYY Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 SYY shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Sysco Corporation (SYY) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.4% of the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) and 1.6% of the ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL). Across 36 tracked ETFs, approximately 84M shares (17.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest SYY Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 36 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SYY Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Sysco Corporation over the past year sits near $73.51 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $74.10 trades 0.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
SYY Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Sysco Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Sysco Corporation converts 39% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 61% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 6.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 476 | $72.57 | $34,543.32 |
| 2026-05-04 | 517 | $74.05 | $38,283.85 |
| 2026-05-01 | 565 | $74.71 | $42,211.15 |
| 2026-04-24 | 67 | $75.81 | $5,079.27 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,970 | $76.27 | $226,521.9 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,874 | $74.09 | $138,844.66 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $74.04 | $444.24 |
| 2026-04-07 | 12 | $73.24 | $878.88 |
| 2026-03-31 | 202 | $69.30 | $13,998.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | 109,625 | $82.34 | $9.0M |
| 2026-03-24 | 49,518 | $81.60 | $4.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 215 | $81.33 | $17,485.95 |
| 2026-03-19 | 1,715 | $82.51 | $141,504.65 |
| 2026-03-17 | 64,526 | $84.52 | $5.5M |
| 2026-03-12 | 32 | $84.56 | $2,705.92 |
| 2026-03-10 | 2,327 | $84.70 | $197,096.9 |
| 2026-02-26 | 3 | $89.13 | $267.39 |
| 2026-02-25 | 13,628 | $89.87 | $1.2M |
| 2026-02-24 | 23,893 | $89.43 | $2.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 27,966 | $90.13 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-11 | 40 | $87.62 | $3,504.8 |
| 2026-02-06 | 200,413 | $84.62 | $17.0M |
| 2026-02-05 | 41,053 | $84.65 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-04 | 1,211 | $84.62 | $102,474.82 |
| 2026-02-03 | 6,982 | $82.86 | $578,528.52 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,427 | $84.11 | $120,024.97 |
| 2026-01-29 | 909 | $83.51 | $75,910.59 |
| 2026-01-27 | 2,205 | $75.63 | $166,764.15 |
| 2026-01-22 | 18 | $76.93 | $1,384.74 |
| 2026-01-15 | 13,707 | $77.11 | $1.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ITW | 0.411 | 0.371 | Moderate |
| ECL | 0.384 | 0.337 | Moderate |
| CLX | 0.369 | 0.303 | Moderate |
| MAS | 0.365 | 0.316 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.363 | 0.272 | Moderate |
| GPC | 0.358 | 0.281 | Moderate |
| MKC | 0.354 | 0.313 | Moderate |
| PKG | 0.352 | 0.346 | Moderate |
| UNP | 0.351 | 0.281 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare SYY to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.