Ventas, Inc. (VTR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicVTR trades at 153.5x earnings — a 224% premium to its sector average of 47.4x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.9. DCF fair value of $60 implies 28% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of this real estate operator reveal a significant divergence between top-line expansion and capital efficiency. While revenue growth accelerated 18.5% year-over-year, the core value creation mechanism is strained by an ROIC-WACC spread of -5.6%, indicating that returns on invested capital are materially below the cost of debt. This inefficiency is further illuminated by the DuPont decomposition; a meager net margin of 4.3% and low asset turnover of 0.21x constrain equity generation, resulting in an ROE of merely 2.0%. Although the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests moderate financial strength and the Beneish M-Score of -2.56 points to clean earnings quality, the Altman Z-Score of 1.9 flags elevated distress risk within this capital-intensive sector.
Valuation metrics present a stark contradiction between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 154.2x is nearly four times the sector average of 41.4x, reflecting extreme optimism regarding future cash flows that may not materialize given the weak profitability factor (RMW) score of -0.260. Discounted Cash Flow analysis anchors fair value at $61, implying a substantial downside of 25.5% from current levels despite an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 15.1%. This suggests the market is pricing in aggressive expansion that conflicts with the company's demonstrated ability to generate returns above its cost of capital.
Risk and reward dynamics are further complicated by divergent factor exposures and insider behavior. The stock exhibits a strong value tilt (HML: 0.373) alongside an anomalously high Fama-French alpha of 17.47%, yet these positive signals coexist with net insider selling totaling $7,780,136 over the last ninety days. This combination indicates that while quantitative models identify specific factor premiums and abnormal returns, active stakeholders appear to be reducing exposure, potentially signaling concerns about the sustainability of current valuations or future capital allocation efficiency in a high-leverage environment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 18% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $86 | $48 | $29 |
| 3% | $117 | $60 | $35 |
| 4% | $176 | $78 | $43 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $80.13.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $60 (-28.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 12% above its 5-year average P/E of 140.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedVentas (VTR) is currently trending positively, with its price comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong upward momentum that's been sustained over time. The Relative Strength Index at 60.7 suggests VTR has been outperforming in recent weeks but isn't yet considered overbought, maintaining room for continued growth based on current conditions.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | $0.5200 | +8.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.4800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.4800 | +6.7% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-01 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-01 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-28 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-29 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.4500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell VTR shares regardless of Ventas, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $7.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to VTR through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ventas, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ventas, Inc. (VTR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with VTR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
VTR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 5 VTR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ventas, Inc. (VTR) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.4% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 3.1% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 91M shares (18.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest VTR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
VTR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ventas, Inc. over the past year sits near $61.71 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $80.13 trades 29.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
VTR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Ventas, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Ventas, Inc. converts 44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 56% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 1,579 | $87.69 | $138,462.51 |
| 2026-05-08 | 44,382 | $86.55 | $3.8M |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,275 | $86.62 | $197,060.5 |
| 2026-05-06 | 2,275 | $86.78 | $197,424.5 |
| 2026-04-23 | 8,288 | $80.10 | $663,868.8 |
| 2026-04-16 | 11,274 | $84.87 | $956,824.38 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $85.34 | $256.02 |
| 2026-04-14 | 2,319 | $84.41 | $195,746.79 |
| 2026-03-27 | 20 | $82.66 | $1,653.2 |
| 2026-03-26 | 24,466 | $82.70 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-25 | 216 | $82.18 | $17,750.88 |
| 2026-03-24 | 215 | $81.85 | $17,597.75 |
| 2026-03-23 | 54,154 | $82.50 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-20 | 1 | $85.55 | $85.55 |
| 2026-03-19 | 85 | $87.33 | $7,423.05 |
| 2026-03-17 | 199 | $87.79 | $17,470.21 |
| 2026-03-10 | 5,286 | $86.21 | $455,706.06 |
| 2026-03-09 | 6,641 | $84.87 | $563,621.67 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,521 | $86.66 | $131,809.86 |
| 2026-02-25 | 1 | $86.43 | $86.43 |
| 2026-02-23 | 16,278 | $85.94 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,052 | $85.24 | $89,672.48 |
| 2026-02-12 | 204,232 | $85.69 | $17.5M |
| 2026-02-09 | 75 | $82.55 | $6,191.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 1 | $79.84 | $79.84 |
| 2026-02-05 | 704 | $77.73 | $54,721.92 |
| 2026-02-02 | 3,841 | $77.67 | $298,330.47 |
| 2026-01-20 | 400 | $78.45 | $31,380 |
| 2026-01-16 | 919 | $76.92 | $70,689.48 |
| 2025-12-31 | 5,667 | $78.85 | $446,842.95 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WELL | 0.739 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| AHR | 0.554 | 0.540 | Moderate |
| OHI | 0.525 | 0.517 | Moderate |
| CTRE | 0.519 | 0.537 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.481 | 0.404 | Moderate |
| CMS | 0.471 | 0.450 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.461 | 0.411 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.442 | 0.382 | Moderate |
| PNW | 0.438 | 0.304 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare VTR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.