Welltower Inc. (WELL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicWELL trades at 99.2x earnings — a 109% premium to its sector average of 47.4x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.7 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $144 implies 31% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Welltower Inc. present a stark divergence between high revenue expansion and capital efficiency, characterized by an ROIC-WACC spread of -9.0% that signals value destruction relative to the cost of capital. While DuPont analysis reveals strong operating leverage with net margins at 8.8%, this profitability is heavily reliant on asset turnover rather than organic margin expansion or financial leverage, as evidenced by a low turnover ratio of 0.16x and an equity multiplier of only 1.56x driving a modest ROE of 2.2%. Despite these efficiency headwinds, the balance sheet exhibits robust solvency with an Altman Z-Score of 3.7 and clean earnings quality indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -3.07; however, the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 suggests recent operational strength that has not yet translated into superior risk-adjusted returns given the negative spread.
Valuation metrics indicate significant market pricing for future growth expectations that appear disconnected from current capital deployment efficiency. The stock trades at a P/E multiple of 142.5x, vastly exceeding the sector average of 41.4x and implying an aggressive consensus on long-term execution despite the -9% return spread. A DCF model incorporating implied FCF growth assumptions yields a fair value that suggests -26.7% downside relative to current levels, highlighting a potential mean reversion risk if revenue growth slows or capital costs rise. This disconnect is further underscored by the Profitability Factor (RMW) of -0.149, which flags weak profitability trends within the broader factor framework, even as the Value Factor (HML) shows a slight tilt at 0.324.
Risk-adjusted performance data reveals an anomalous Fama-French Alpha of 24.66% annually, suggesting historical outperformance that may be driven by specific sector tailwinds rather than sustainable fundamental improvement. With insider flow remaining neutral over the past 90 days, there is no clear signal from management regarding capital allocation priorities or confidence in near-term trajectory adjustments. The combination of negative capital efficiency metrics and a valuation premium implies that future returns will depend critically on whether asset turnover can improve to support the current margin structure without requiring disproportionate leverage increases.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 36% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $185 | $124 | $90 |
| 3% | $227 | $144 | $101 |
| 4% | $297 | $171 | $115 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $195.35.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $144 (-30.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 14% above its 5-year average P/E of 128.7x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe 50-day moving average of $195.75 is above the 200-day moving average of $176.74, indicating that WELL has been in an uptrend over recent months. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 55.7, WELL currently shows moderate strength but remains below the level often associated with being overbought, suggesting it may still have upward potential within its current trend cycle.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-25 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-10 | $0.7400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-12 | $0.7400 | +10.4% |
| 2025-05-14 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-25 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-12 | $0.6700 | +9.8% |
| 2024-05-10 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-22 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-13 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.6100 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLRE or IYR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell WELL shares regardless of Welltower Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $22.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to WELL through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Welltower Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Welltower Inc. (WELL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with WELL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 30 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
WELL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 WELL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Welltower Inc. (WELL) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 10.3% of the State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLRE) and 10.0% of the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 110M shares (15.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest WELL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
WELL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Welltower Inc. over the past year sits near $186.13 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $195.35 trades 5.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
WELL Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Welltower Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Welltower Inc. converts 123% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-9.0%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 358 | $217.50 | $77,865 |
| 2026-05-12 | 23 | $214.84 | $4,941.32 |
| 2026-05-04 | 15,273 | $216.91 | $3.3M |
| 2026-05-01 | 428 | $217.34 | $93,021.52 |
| 2026-04-29 | 98 | $214.23 | $20,994.54 |
| 2026-04-27 | 32 | $208.75 | $6,680 |
| 2026-04-24 | 19,062 | $208.24 | $4.0M |
| 2026-04-22 | 38,158 | $206.39 | $7.9M |
| 2026-04-17 | 54,845 | $214.51 | $11.8M |
| 2026-04-16 | 15,892 | $211.33 | $3.4M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $210.99 | $632.97 |
| 2026-04-14 | 804 | $206.97 | $166,403.88 |
| 2026-04-09 | 177,867 | $204.70 | $36.4M |
| 2026-03-31 | 22,816 | $195.30 | $4.5M |
| 2026-03-25 | 69 | $196.61 | $13,566.09 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1 | $195.00 | $195 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1 | $195.94 | $195.94 |
| 2026-03-17 | 111,172 | $210.18 | $23.4M |
| 2026-03-16 | 145,698 | $207.82 | $30.3M |
| 2026-03-13 | 257 | $206.20 | $52,993.4 |
| 2026-03-10 | 12 | $207.68 | $2,492.16 |
| 2026-02-25 | 7,586 | $209.30 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-24 | 16,920 | $209.54 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-13 | 4 | $208.14 | $832.56 |
| 2026-02-10 | 2,023 | $197.25 | $399,036.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 793 | $185.69 | $147,252.17 |
| 2026-01-23 | 4,224 | $181.96 | $768,599.04 |
| 2026-01-05 | 167 | $186.94 | $31,218.98 |
| 2025-12-31 | 25,042 | $188.00 | $4.7M |
| 2025-12-26 | 1,701 | $187.70 | $319,277.7 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| VTR | 0.739 | 0.744 | High co-movement |
| CTRE | 0.643 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| AHR | 0.623 | 0.643 | Moderate |
| OHI | 0.618 | 0.621 | Moderate |
| AEE | 0.554 | 0.502 | Moderate |
| CMS | 0.549 | 0.565 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.545 | 0.559 | Moderate |
| ADC | 0.525 | 0.479 | Moderate |
| LNT | 0.522 | 0.497 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare WELL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.