Ameren Corporation (AEE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAEE trades at 19.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 24.4x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.0.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Ameren Corporation reveal a tension between reported profitability and capital efficiency. While the DuPont decomposition highlights strong net margins at 16.6% supported by significant financial leverage via an equity multiplier of 3.58x, this structure masks a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -2.4%, indicating that generated returns fail to cover the cost of capital. This inefficiency is underscored by an Altman Z-Score of 1.0, suggesting elevated distress risk despite a respectable Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and a clean Beneish M-Score of -2.45 which points away from earnings manipulation. The revenue growth trajectory of 15.4% YoY appears robust on the surface but does not offset the capital destruction implied by the negative spread, while the weak profitability factor (RMW) of -0.215 further signals deteriorating operational quality relative to peers.
Valuation metrics currently price in a premium that may not be fully justified given these underlying fundamentals. The stock trades at 20.9x earnings, which sits below the sector average of 24.2x, yet this discount exists alongside a Fama-French alpha of 4.26% and a distinct value tilt (HML: 0.426). This suggests the market is compensating for the company's exposure to value characteristics while simultaneously pricing in lower profitability than typical growth names within its space. The divergence between the attractive P/E relative to peers and the negative return on invested capital creates a complex valuation picture where current multiples may reflect an expectation of future margin expansion or asset base restructuring rather than sustainable high-return operations.
Insider activity over the last 90 days shows net selling totaling $5,403,562, adding another layer of caution to the risk-reward profile. Combined with the Altman Z-Score hovering near distress territory and the negative spread between return on capital and the cost of debt, these data points suggest a company navigating significant structural headwinds despite its high gross margins. The interplay of insider disposition, weak profitability factors, and inefficient capital allocation presents a scenario where traditional value metrics like low P/E ratios may not adequately capture the operational risks inherent in the current business model.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 9% above its 5-year average P/E of 19.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmeren Corporation is currently trading at $111.29, a level that warrants examination against its established moving average envelope to assess potential mean-reversion dynamics. Without specific upper and lower band boundaries provided in the dataset, the precise relative valuation remains undefined; however, if this price point sits significantly distant from the central trend line within such an envelope, it could theoretically suggest an extended deviation awaiting a statistical pullback toward equilibrium. Conversely, positioning near the center of the channel might indicate continued alignment with the prevailing mean, offering limited immediate catalyst for directional reversal based solely on proximity to average values. In the context of the utilities sector, where price action often exhibits lower volatility compared to growth equities, the significance of any deviation from the moving averages requires careful calibration against historical dispersion patterns. The current figure does not inherently confirm an overbought or oversold condition without knowing the width of the surrounding statistical bands. Observers might note that extreme distances from the mean in utility stocks can sometimes signal temporary dislocations rather than immediate corrections, as sector-specific fundamentals often anchor prices more firmly than short-term technical noise. Ultimately, determining whether $111.29 represents a value opportunity or a continuation zone depends entirely on where this price resides relative to the specific upper and lower limits of Ameren's defined moving average structure at this moment in time.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | $0.7500 | +5.6% |
| 2025-12-09 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-09 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-10 | $0.7100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | $0.7100 | +6.0% |
| 2024-12-11 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-11 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-12 | $0.6700 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-12 | $0.6700 | +6.3% |
| 2023-12-12 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-12 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-13 | $0.6300 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XLU or VPU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AEE shares regardless of Ameren Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $5.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to AEE through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ameren Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ameren Corporation (AEE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NEXTERA ENERGY INC (NEE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AEE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AEE Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AEE shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ameren Corporation (AEE) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.2% of the State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) and 1.9% of the VPU (VPU). Across 30 tracked ETFs, approximately 47M shares (17.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AEE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 30 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AEE Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ameren Corporation over the past year sits near $98.16 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $106.78 trades 8.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AEE Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Ameren Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Ameren Corporation converts -20% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 120% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 31 | $109.07 | $3,381.17 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 | $108.77 | $3,371.87 |
| 2026-05-07 | 31 | $109.59 | $3,397.29 |
| 2026-04-24 | 648 | $112.05 | $72,608.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 7,123 | $112.71 | $802,833.33 |
| 2026-04-09 | 232,804 | $112.86 | $26.3M |
| 2026-04-07 | 100 | $111.44 | $11,144 |
| 2026-04-06 | 100 | $111.68 | $11,168 |
| 2026-03-25 | 27 | $107.69 | $2,907.63 |
| 2026-03-09 | 43,987 | $111.52 | $4.9M |
| 2026-03-05 | 22 | $113.33 | $2,493.26 |
| 2026-02-18 | 1,094 | $110.54 | $120,930.76 |
| 2026-02-11 | 538,097 | $105.78 | $56.9M |
| 2025-12-31 | 52 | $100.74 | $5,238.48 |
| 2025-12-17 | 119 | $97.99 | $11,660.81 |
| 2025-12-12 | 535 | $97.25 | $52,028.75 |
| 2025-12-08 | 239 | $99.86 | $23,866.54 |
| 2025-11-26 | 2 | $104.92 | $209.84 |
| 2025-11-25 | 3,539 | $104.79 | $370,851.81 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2 | $104.53 | $209.06 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2 | $103.46 | $206.92 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2 | $105.02 | $210.04 |
| 2025-11-14 | 2 | $104.77 | $209.54 |
| 2025-11-12 | 60,500 | $105.19 | $6.4M |
| 2025-11-06 | 23,737 | $101.28 | $2.4M |
| 2025-10-30 | 12 | $102.28 | $1,227.36 |
| 2025-10-17 | 50 | $105.21 | $5,260.5 |
| 2025-10-06 | 85,753 | $103.74 | $8.9M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WEC | 0.858 | 0.830 | High co-movement |
| LNT | 0.847 | 0.843 | High co-movement |
| CMS | 0.835 | 0.822 | High co-movement |
| DTE | 0.823 | 0.794 | High co-movement |
| PNW | 0.786 | 0.721 | High co-movement |
| CNP | 0.776 | 0.799 | High co-movement |
| EXC | 0.772 | 0.771 | High co-movement |
| EVRG | 0.770 | 0.754 | High co-movement |
| PPL | 0.765 | 0.740 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AEE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.