American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAHR trades at 96.9x earnings — a 58% premium to its sector average of 61.4x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $7 implies 88% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of American Healthcare REIT, Inc. reveal a significant capital efficiency challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -7.6%, indicating that the company currently destroys value relative to its cost of capital. This negative spread persists despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.64, which suggest strong financial health and low earnings manipulation risk respectively; however, the DuPont decomposition clarifies that returns are driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier of 1.61x) rather than operational excellence, as net margins remain thin at 3.1% with modest asset turnover of 0.42x. While revenue growth tracks positively at 9.2%, the Altman Z-Score of 2.6 sits in a zone requiring vigilance regarding long-term solvency, creating a tension between current profitability metrics and structural capital allocation inefficiencies.
Valuation multiples reflect extreme optimism that appears misaligned with intrinsic value calculations. The stock trades at a P/E of 117.2x, significantly above the sector average of 84.5x, pricing in aggressive future performance rather than current earnings power. A DCF analysis anchors fair value at $6, implying an -87.8% discount from current levels if growth assumptions hold, yet this valuation relies on a highly specific implied free cash flow growth rate of 21.5% over the next decade—a figure that seems difficult to sustain given the weak profitability factor (RMW) alpha of -0.291 and negative ROIC-WACC spread. The market appears to be betting entirely on future margin expansion or multiple re-rating, ignoring the fact that current operations do not generate sufficient returns to justify existing share prices.
Risk factors further complicate the reward profile despite a high Fama-French alpha of 60.33% and a positive value tilt (HML: 0.260). The weak profitability factor suggests the stock may underperform in environments where earnings quality is paramount, while recent insider activity shows $97,100 net selling over the last 90 days, potentially signaling management caution regarding the valuation gap or future capital needs. Although low leverage ratios and clean governance scores offer some defensive characteristics, the combination of value-destructive fundamentals and a massive divergence between market price and DCF-derived fair value creates an asymmetric risk profile where downside potential is substantial relative to the narrow margin for error in growth assumptions.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 9% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $10 | $6 | $3 |
| 3% | $12 | $7 | $4 |
| 4% | $17 | $9 | $5 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $57.16.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $7 (-87.9%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 0% below its 5-year average P/E of 97.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican Healthcare REIT, Inc. is currently trading at $50.19, a price point that requires contextualization against its moving average envelope to assess relative value dynamics. Without specific SMA levels provided in the dataset, the immediate technical implication hinges on whether this current valuation represents an expansion or contraction phase relative to recent historical averages. If the stock trades above its upper band boundaries, it suggests momentum-driven pricing that may be extending beyond established mean ranges, potentially increasing volatility as prices seek equilibrium. Conversely, a position below lower bands could indicate suppressed valuations where statistical probabilities favor a return toward central tendency, assuming no fundamental structural shifts have invalidated prior trends. The absence of explicit deviation metrics prevents a definitive calculation of z-scores or band breaches, yet the current level offers an opportunity to evaluate mean-reversion hypotheses based on sector norms for real estate investments. Traders monitoring this asset might observe how far the price has drifted from its statistical center; significant deviations often precede corrective movements as market participants adjust expectations back toward fair value. The $50.19 figure serves merely as a snapshot of where the security sits within its own historical distribution, waiting for additional data points to confirm whether it is acting as an outlier or aligning with broader trend lines. Ultimately, determining the likelihood of price stabilization requires comparing this specific quote against longer-term smoothing averages that define the normal trading range for AHR. If the current price is detached from these core indicators, the setup implies a higher probability of
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-20 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-27 | $0.2500 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.2500 | — |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VNQ or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AHR shares regardless of American Healthcare REIT, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $925M of passive capital is structurally linked to AHR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AHR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American Healthcare REIT, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vanguard Real Estate II Index Fund Institutional Plus Shares (VRTPX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AHR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AHR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 AHR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. (AHR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 0.5% of the Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF Shares (VNQ) and 0.4% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 22M shares (10.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AHR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AHR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American Healthcare REIT, Inc. over the past year sits near $47.56 (18% of 252-day volume). The current price of $57.16 trades 20.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (18% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AHR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does American Healthcare REIT, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
American Healthcare REIT, Inc. converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | 36,449 | $46.71 | $1.7M |
| 2026-06-08 | 1 | $47.48 | $47.48 |
| 2026-05-29 | 91 | $49.46 | $4,500.86 |
| 2026-05-28 | 16 | $50.46 | $807.36 |
| 2026-05-27 | 2,429 | $51.00 | $123,879 |
| 2026-05-22 | 2,500 | $50.13 | $125,325 |
| 2026-05-21 | 217 | $51.68 | $11,214.56 |
| 2026-05-20 | 128 | $50.81 | $6,503.68 |
| 2026-05-19 | 602 | $50.09 | $30,154.18 |
| 2026-05-18 | 15,429 | $49.35 | $761,421.15 |
| 2026-05-15 | 1,194 | $51.14 | $61,061.16 |
| 2026-05-13 | 88 | $51.47 | $4,529.36 |
| 2026-05-12 | 665 | $50.38 | $33,502.7 |
| 2026-05-11 | 665 | $51.71 | $34,387.15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 665 | $49.60 | $32,984 |
| 2026-05-07 | 665 | $50.02 | $33,263.3 |
| 2026-05-06 | 665 | $49.68 | $33,037.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 665 | $50.13 | $33,336.45 |
| 2026-05-04 | 665 | $50.15 | $33,349.75 |
| 2026-05-01 | 233 | $50.78 | $11,831.74 |
| 2026-04-27 | 446 | $50.10 | $22,344.6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,292 | $50.58 | $65,349.36 |
| 2026-04-22 | 4,023 | $49.52 | $199,218.96 |
| 2026-04-21 | 7 | $50.21 | $351.47 |
| 2026-04-20 | 109 | $49.59 | $5,405.31 |
| 2026-04-09 | 1,061 | $48.40 | $51,352.4 |
| 2026-04-08 | 7,242 | $47.60 | $344,719.2 |
| 2026-04-02 | 198 | $47.52 | $9,408.96 |
| 2026-04-01 | 809 | $47.16 | $38,152.44 |
| 2026-03-30 | 15 | $47.13 | $706.95 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WELL | 0.704 | 0.787 | High co-movement |
| CTRE | 0.645 | 0.726 | Moderate |
| VTR | 0.639 | 0.716 | Moderate |
| OHI | 0.601 | 0.701 | Moderate |
| O | 0.409 | 0.535 | Moderate |
| PEG | 0.396 | 0.474 | Moderate |
| VRTPX | 0.396 | 0.484 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AHR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.